Brexit - merged threads

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, amateur said:

Are we allowed to quote Schrodinger's cat theory. Or is that banned as a cat thread. 

It certainly seems that the closer Brexit appears to happen, the more illusive it becomes

My thoughts exactly!

[Scully]

31 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

As opposed to labour , who are doing great at the moment ?

 

A long extension also gives us EU elections, and oops , needs UNANIMOUS 27 member approval 😂 Or does it ??

A rethink where the simple FACT that we have a house that has failed to deliver any kind of result on Brexit.
More time for that to fester among the people who voted to leave.

Or did you actually mean , more time to rethink the foolish decision 17.4 million people made ?

As much as I would love this to happen, I doubt very much Parliament or Government will allow anything as trivial as the law to thwart their attempts to subvert their aim. 

[Rewulf]

16 minutes ago, Scully said:

As much as I would love this to happen, I doubt very much Parliament or Government will allow anything as trivial as the law to thwart their attempts to subvert their aim. 

Youre not wrong, count the EU amongst them.

Verhofstadt landed himself a nice job  privatising  Greek power suppliers, salary 190,000 euros P/A

Guy Verhofstadt (MEP and leader of Liberal Group) excoriated Tsipras in the European Parliament.[13] It turns out that he has a major interest in seeing Greece privatize its utilities. He sits on the board of Sofina, a multi-billion euro Belgian investment holding company which invests in GDF Suez and its parent company Suez Environment, which is one of only two consortia that have reached the final phase of the privatisation of EYATH, the state owned water company which manages Thessaloniki’s water.[14] This privatisation is hugely controversial with an unofficial referendum voting 98% against it.

More dirt here- http://criticallegalthinking.com/2015/07/13/a-tangled-web-the-vested-interests-of-the-eu-right/

Edited March 29, 2019 by Rewulf

[oowee]

30 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I don't see a long extension because then we're involved with the European elections and they don't want us involved in that.

I'm thinking TM resigns which will trigger the leadership doo dah, parliament doesn't seem able to agree on anything going forward concerned with brexit, So its GE time tories surely have to go strong on brexit hoping for a big majority while labour promise everything the money tree can offer.

But all the working class areas oop North aren't going to blindly follow labour, they want out, and i think they'll vote for who delivers OUT

Will the tories sign up for strong brexit or, just agreeing to leave. Tories have not to date been strong on leave across the party. Both parties were for leaving last time.

Now the electorate shift has been described as moving towards remain, so maybe there are more votes to be had on that side of the coin. Either way a GE could end up with more of the same non decisive majority. Maybe the feeling is stronger with brexit than the old established party loyalties, if not for most then for a significant proportion of the electorate.

Imagine one party comes out with customs union / common market 2 ie a soft brexit then it might attract most remainers  and most brexiteers despite the unpleasantness associated with that party as its the least worst option.

[Scully]

10 minutes ago, oowee said:

Will the tories sign up for strong brexit or, just agreeing to leave. Tories have not to date been strong on leave across the party. Both parties were for leaving last time.

Now the electorate shift has been described as moving towards remain, so maybe there are more votes to be had on that side of the coin. Either way a GE could end up with more of the same non decisive majority. Maybe the feeling is stronger with brexit than the old established party loyalties, if not for most then for a significant proportion of the electorate.

Imagine one party comes out with customs union / common market 2 ie a soft brexit then it might attract most remainers  and most brexiteers despite the unpleasantness associated with that party as its the least worst option.

Who described the electorate shift as moving towards remain? 

[Rewulf]

Just now, Scully said:

Who described the electorate shift as moving towards remain? 

Same people who said a million+ people marched to revoke A 50 probably.

 

[oowee]

Remain was predominantly the choice of younger voters and leave predominantly the choice of older voters. Since the ref 3 years worth of older voters have snuffed it and three years worth of younger voters have come on stream.

Plus a range of surveys that have picked up on the protest vote. Hear is an example. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-bregret-leave-petition-second-remain-latest-will-we-leave-a7105116.html  I think this one is also listing a pol of polls https://whatukthinks.org/eu/are-voters-changing-their-minds-about-brexit/

A significant number of EU nationals now holders of British passports over the three years might also be expected to vote remain. 

 

Edited March 29, 2019 by oowee

[Mice!]

18 minutes ago, oowee said:

Will the tories sign up for strong brexit or, just agreeing to leave. Tories have not to date been strong on leave across the party. Both parties were for leaving last time.

Now the electorate shift has been described as moving towards remain, so maybe there are more votes to be had on that side of the coin. Either way a GE could end up with more of the same non decisive majority. Maybe the feeling is stronger with brexit than the old established party loyalties, if not for most then for a significant proportion of the electorate.

Imagine one party comes out with customs union / common market 2 ie a soft brexit then it might attract most remainers  and most brexiteers despite the unpleasantness associated with that party as its the least worst option.

I think the tories have to be strong on brexit, whoever takes over from TM has to be a leaver with no remain in their closet.

I agree a GE might not settle things but something needs doing.

Hemel Hempstead MP just made a lot of sense, they stood on a manifestos that was leave.

As for a shift towards remain?? Can't say I've seen any.

[Rewulf]

13 minutes ago, oowee said:

Will the tories sign up for strong brexit or, just agreeing to leave. Tories have not to date been strong on leave across the party. Both parties were for leaving last time.

Both parties SAID they wanted to leave , because to say anything different would have been suicide.

Although Corbyn probably does want to leave, for his own reasons, his party , made up of commies, holier than thou academics and  migrants, want to remain.
Lib dems are a non entity, so crunch the numbers 

                                     Cons                               Labs

Last election	330 seats, 36.9%	232 seats, 30.4%	56 seats, 4.7%
Seats won	317*	262	35
Seat change	13	30	21
Popular vote	13,636,684	12,878,460	977,569
Percentage	42.4%	40.0%	3.0%
Swing	5.5%	9.6%

 

What if , for the sake of argument , there are still 17 million leave voters ?
Thats more voters than either party gained in the popular vote by a long way.
WHO are those people going to vote for ?
The party who says Brexit WILL happen, or a party that says even if it does happen, technically well still be in the EU ?

And no Corby wont be able to hypnotise the students this time with abolition of their debts.

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

Remain was predominantly the choice of younger voters and leave predominantly the choice of older voters. Since the ref 3 years worth of older voters have snuffed it and three years worth of younger voters have come on stream.

There is literally no data to support this.

5 minutes ago, oowee said:

Plus a range of surveys that have picked up on the protest vote. Hear is an example. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-bregret-leave-petition-second-remain-latest-will-we-leave-a7105116.html  I think this one is also listing a pol of polls https://whatukthinks.org/eu/are-voters-changing-their-minds-about-brexit/

 

Completely impartial then 😂

 

5 minutes ago, oowee said:

A significant number of EU nationals now holders of British passports over the three years might also be expected to vote remain. 

They chose the UK over EU , why would they want to remain, they came here for a reason !

[hedge]

I like the assumptions that the 17m who voted to leave didn't know what they were doing and voted based on misinformation.

Whereas the 16m who voted to stay had the full facts and are therefore `right`.

As for the 17m not knowing what they voted for - I put my faith in the elected representatives to do that for us. It was never going to be easy but it's been a complete car crash, partly because those chosen to broker Brexit didn't want to leave in the first place. 

If we had another referendum, I'd expect Remain to win - purely because people are so p!ssed off with the whole thing and a sense of apathy or `why bother`. It would arguably be just as emotive as the first referendum, just for different reasons. I don't fully believe the age/demographic thing. Even if you did, I would argue that the 18+ only know the EU and therefore why leave? The 65+ can remember life pre-EU and that the world will still function without it.

That 17m is an election winner and both parties are trying not to upset them but also push their own political agenda's.

Politics and business do not mix for that very reason.

[oowee]

12 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Both parties SAID they wanted to leave , because to say anything different would have been suicide.

Although Corbyn probably does want to leave, for his own reasons, his party , made up of commies, holier than thou academics and  migrants, want to remain.
Lib dems are a non entity, so crunch the numbers 

                                     Cons                               Labs

Last election	330 seats, 36.9%	232 seats, 30.4%	56 seats, 4.7%
Seats won	317*	262	35
Seat change	13	30	21
Popular vote	13,636,684	12,878,460	977,569
Percentage	42.4%	40.0%	3.0%
Swing	5.5%	9.6%

 

What if , for the sake of argument , there are still 17 million leave voters ?
Thats more voters than either party gained in the popular vote by a long way.
WHO are those people going to vote for ?
The party who says Brexit WILL happen, or a party that says even if it does happen, technically well still be in the EU ?

And no Corby wont be able to hypnotise the students this time with abolition of their debts.

There is literally no data to support this.

Completely impartial then 😂

 

They chose the UK over EU , why would they want to remain, they came here for a reason !

No data like this 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

or this https://www.ft.com/content/1ce1a720-ce94-3c32-a689-8d2356388a1f

Impartial? The source or the publication? Big difference.

They choose the UK as part of europe.

5 minutes ago, hedge said:

I like the assumptions that the 17m who voted to leave didn't know what they were doing and voted based on misinformation.

Whereas the 16m who voted to stay had the full facts and are therefore `right`.

As for the 17m not knowing what they voted for - I put my faith in the elected representatives to do that for us. It was never going to be easy but it's been a complete car crash, partly because those chosen to broker Brexit didn't want to leave in the first place. 

If we had another referendum, I'd expect Remain to win - purely because people are so p!ssed off with the whole thing and a sense of apathy or `why bother`. It would arguably be just as emotive as the first referendum, just for different reasons. I don't fully believe the age/demographic thing. Even if you did, I would argue that the 18+ only know the EU and therefore why leave? The 65+ can remember life pre-EU and that the world will still function without it.

That 17m is an election winner and both parties are trying not to upset them but also push their own political agenda's.

Politics and business do not mix for that very reason.

Not sure where you make that assumptions. The remain vote had it easy as they knew where they were. The quitters had a harder task as they were voting for something undescribed and variable. The proof of that is the last three years squabbling about what type of leave we are being dragged into. 

I would agree with you on a future vote but more so because a lot of older people have now snuffed it.  

Either group of 17m is likely to be a vote for more of the same. A winner will be the party that can appeal most to both sides  (sorry even as I write it I can see it's a truism). Or maybe this time tthe winner is the party that least describes what they will do as in the Brexit debate people  don't like any of the options. 

[Rewulf]

34 minutes ago, oowee said:

A significant number of EU nationals now holders of British passports over the three years might also be expected to vote remain. 

 

6 minutes ago, oowee said:

They choose the UK as part of europe.

Err, we had just voted to leave ?
So how did they choos e the UK as part of Europe ?
Unless they knew something we didnt , the little minxs !😲

[hedge]

Who knows!

My comments about `assumptions` is from my experience on social media etc of Remainers constantly saying that the 17m voted based on #projectfear, the NHS getting 650M back, immigration etc.  There just seems to be an undercurrent of belief from Remain that they made a fully informed decision to stay and the Brexit voters were hysterical.

Since the latest vote has lost by 50+ votes, it will be interesting to see what happens on Monday. 

 

[Rewulf]

The vote has been lost again , so lets see when were having this  GE?

[Jaymo]

Round and round in circles- let’s face it, one lot wants out and the other wants to stay.

Regurgitating each other’s arguments is encouraging me to start to ignore the thread and look at the for Sale section- a very costly action, so please find some common ground to protect my cabinet from infestation of new toys 

[Dekers]

Flippen 'ek, what on earth happens now?

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, Jaymo said:

Round and round in circles- let’s face it, one lot wants out and the other wants to stay.

Regurgitating each other’s arguments is encouraging me to start to ignore the thread and look at the for Sale section- a very costly action, so please find some common ground to protect my cabinet from infestation of new toys 

Buy those toys, you may need them, to defend yourself from starving hoards of people when we leave, and theres no food or medicine !

Or if we dont leave , hoards of angry gammons looking for revenge !!

Or zombies or something !!!

14 minutes ago, oowee said:

No data like this 

Both those are paywalled, but I did go back and look at the Indy link https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-bregret-leave-petition-second-remain-latest-will-we-leave-a7105116.html that says 1.1 million people have now changed their mind and want to stay now...
..Dated 27 th June 2016 🤣

[Jaymo]

Does AOLQ cover it? 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, Jaymo said:

Does AOLQ cover it? 

When law has gone , AOLQ  covers EVERYTHING 😂

[Mice!]

So SNP won't back brexit, they want to revoke A50, labour apart from 5 won't back the deal saying they can't as they don't know who is in charge next, signing a blank cheque they say.

DUP won't back anything which has an Irish back stop, fair enough.

Has to be a GE, new party leader with a clear mandate, this could almost be billed the peoples vote.

Game of thrones starts soon, less back stabbing and double dealing and better scenery 😁 

[ditchman]

Explain to me please...............

• its seems everybody in the UK.....including the UK govt' says "no-deal is off the table"
• The EU has been saying for a few days now "that no deal exit is the most likely now"

 

wot do they know that we dont.?

[Dekers]

10 minutes ago, ditchman said:

Explain to me please...............

• its seems everybody in the UK.....including the UK govt' says "no-deal is off the table"
• The EU has been saying for a few days now "that no deal exit is the most likely now"

 

wot do they know that we dont.?

I'm with you, I simply don't understand how we got here, and how we get out of this mess!

[Rewulf]

7 minutes ago, ditchman said:

its seems everybody in the UK.....including the UK govt' says "no-deal is off the table"

No deal/WTO rules, has always been on the table, and always will be on the table.
Parliament thinks its headed it off at the pass, but remember the non binding part of the vote ?
Its still there because without revoking A50 (no mandate to do so) no 2nd ref (no mandate to have one) this is still the legal fallback option.

It has to be , because otherwise, we would have to accept whatever the EU gives us, it could say ' We arent giving you a deal !'  what would we do then, just not leave ? Walk off crying ?
Dont let them tell you its not still an option , THAT is wishful thinking on their part.

14 minutes ago, ditchman said:

The EU has been saying for a few days now "that no deal exit is the most likely now"

They are saying that to 'scare' our MPs and to an extent the British public into thinking if we dont accept their stinking deal, we will all starve to death without them, or suvvumb to easily treatable diseases we cant get medicine for.

[ditchman]

2 minutes ago, Dekers said:

I'm with you, I simply don't understand how we got here, and how we get out of this mess!

not only that ...the EU are activly putting their hands in their pockets to cough up for infrastructure changes assosiated with a no deal senario.................some money has already gone to Calais for road building works...and a statement from the authorities in Calais says..."a no-deal brexit will not affect the flow of goods through the port "...

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

No deal/WTO rules, has always been on the table, and always will be on the table.
Parliament thinks its headed it off at the pass, but remember the non binding part of the vote ?
Its still there because without revoking A50 (no mandate to do so) no 2nd ref (no mandate to have one) this is still the legal fallback option.

It has to be , because otherwise, we would have to accept whatever the EU gives us, it could say ' We arent giving you a deal !'  what would we do then, just not leave ? Walk off crying ?
Dont let them tell you its not still an option , THAT is wishful thinking on their part.

to easily treaThey are saying that to 'scare' our MPs and to an extent the British public into thinking if we dont accept their stinking deal, we will all starve to death without them, or suvvumb table diseases we cant get medicine for.

well with comments from Barnier et al like that ...im beginning to think they are my best friends.............

[JohnfromUK]

5 minutes ago, Dekers said:

I simply don't understand how we got here

We got here through utter incompetence of our negotiators getting a 'bad deal', a PM who is too pig headed to move away from that bad deal, and a Parliament who has ruled out our best stance - No Deal.

There was also the EU who have bullied and dictated - not negotiated .......... but once we removed our 'no deal' option - they knew they had won.

Where we go from here is harder.  Polls indicate that a General Election would return a similar Parliamentary make up to where we are now.  What we should do is leave with 'No Deal' - NOW.  But I understand that cannot happen as Parliament - led and controlled by a confirmed Remain speaker will prevent it.  I'm not sure exactly how they can change the law before April 12th, but it seems they can.