Brexit - merged threads

[12gauge82]

11 hours ago, Paul1440 said:

At least one vote for Boris then. ?

?

[243deer]

8 hours ago, oowee said:

For me it's an easy one. The West has grown economically on the back of it's exploitation of labour and resources from around the world. Our wealth is now under threat from lower cost economies that will out compete the West on price. We compete on quality, innovation and style. Over time the margins in these areas will be eroded. One way to resist this erosion is through protectionism which we can do through standards of safety in manufacture process, quality standards for products and through enforced environmental standards. It's easier to do this in a larger trading group of nations. The EU is an ideal vehicle for this. It's policy of bringing new nations in and then assisting them to modernise and become more effective trading nations, increases its economic mass. The larger the market the easier it is to raise the internal standards.  

My somewhat alternative view is that we are already part of a global market. We are receiving no protection at all from manufacturers outside of the EU - the evidence is there on an hourly basis in all the large container ports in the EU.  Raising internal EU standards is pointless, it handcuffs manufacturers and adds enormous unnecessary levels of cost, manufacturing to a price point and quality that folk around the world will pay is what is required. Restricting our market to the EU is short term suicide.

[Vince Green]

43 minutes ago, 243deer said:

My somewhat alternative view is that we are already part of a global market. We are receiving no protection at all from manufacturers outside of the EU - the evidence is there on an hourly basis in all the large container ports in the EU.  Raising internal EU standards is pointless, it handcuffs manufacturers and adds enormous unnecessary levels of cost, manufacturing to a price point and quality that folk around the world will pay is what is required. Restricting our market to the EU is short term suicide.

+1 Absolutely correct, its going to be tough when we have to go it alone, and all the remainers will be clucking like chickens. However, in the long term it is still better than having to live under the EU's crazy rules and pay to subsidise financial failures that are already terminal

[JRDS]

The front on May is amazing, to stand up in Parliament and write an article in the Telegraph saying her plan is in line with her red lines and the Leave vote is quite incredible.  She has simply taken the CU/SM/FOM and given them new names and put some weasel words round the ECJ.  The biggest act of Political Treason this country has ever seen and she is trying to front it out.

[walshie]

I do find it amusing when remainers (who lost the referendum) refer to the leavers (who won) as dim-witted, stupid, racist etc.etc. It's nice they think so much of themselves that they can place themselves on a pedestal reserved for the political elite intelligentsia we can all only aspire to. 

At least us 17 million dummies can hold our heads high knowing we aren't afraid of our own shadows. 

[JohnfromUK]

23 minutes ago, JRDS said:

The front on May is amazing, to stand up in Parliament and write an article in the Telegraph saying her plan is in line with her red lines and the Leave vote is quite incredible.  She has simply taken the CU/SM/FOM and given them new names and put some weasel words round the ECJ.  The biggest act of Political Treason this country has ever seen and she is trying to front it out.

That is basically what politicians do for a living .........

[Rewulf]

9 hours ago, oowee said:

For me it's an easy one. The West has grown economically on the back of it's exploitation of labour and resources from around the world. 

Are you talking about recently, or in the Wests colonial past ?
If the former, no one is forcing them, and if their own countries are not treating the worker class correctly, its not something we can do a lot about besides voting with our feet (but more on that later)
If the latter, then Im sorry, but my colonial past is restricted to the odd videogame, we really need to move on from the exploitation guilt syndrome.

You talk about protectionism, but the EU has been very selective about what parts of it they 'protect'
They certainly havnt protected our fishing industry, or steel making for example, consigning whole communities to the scrap heap.
They dont 'protect' us from cheap Chinese goods, they slap a tariff on them, thus making themselves and governments money.
Tariffs the Chinese manufacturers dont mind, because they still make good profits from us.
You talk of product standards and protection of environmental standards, but again, it doesnt stop goods coming in from countries outside the EU, so either they adhere to the standards, or the EU ignores their own protocols, all this whilst goods come from countries whose environmental standards are shocking.
 

Those of us who know anything about technology, know that most of the fancy tech gear we have comes from the far East, look around you right now, your computer, phone , tablet, kettle, microwave, TV , the electronics in your car, plastic goods, all the things you take for granted in your daily life, highly likely came from a factory in Taiwan ,China or Korea.
So tell me again, how the EU 'protects' us from this ?

Lastly, you talk about how the bigger the EU ,the better, get more countries on board, more countries, more protection right ?
More POWER !
To who, you, me ?
Not on your life, more power to Brussels, more votes from grateful poor countries, happy to tow the line whilst, at least in the early days, they receive ECB loans and 'grants' OUR money, making Brussels look like some benevolent father figure ?
 

If it was all about trade power, it wouldnt be as bad, but its much more about political power, the power to tell those countries how to set up their own laws 'in line' with EU objectives, objectives often very detrimental to those countries traditions,economy and culture.
But a smattering of hush money, fame and prestige in the right places, and a bust on the United states of Europe hall of fame can work wonders.

Ill be honest ,I expected a far better answer from you oowee, I actually doubt your honesty in the one you gave.
But if thats the way you see it ,fair enough.
But I can guarantee you one thing, your dream of Europe is not theirs.
You see a future of prosperity and mutual understanding.
Their vision is totalitarian, no arguing with Brussels, a very limited version of democracy (or none at all) and complete erosion of national identity and culture.
A quasi socialist 4 th reich.
 

[JohnfromUK]

15 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

I think Farage may well be making a reappearance if a true brexit is not delivered ......

Farage speaks very well, and has some good ideas, but somehow he has never been able to form a traditional 'party' - just a 'one man band'.  I suspect it is his 'personality' that keeps it that way.  Yes, they have had a significant number of candidates, who have done OK in both European Parliament and local elections (I have voted for them myself), but they have never won a seat in Westminster, and Farage has never presented a 'team' (in my eyes anyway) that could credibly form a Government.  E.g., they never seemed to have a foreign affairs spokesman, home affairs spokesman, economics spokesman etc.  It was always the 'one man band'.

There is no realistic prospect of UKIP ever winning a majority.  They might win a seat or two at Westminster, but it hasn't happened to date.  All they will do is take votes from other parties - the question is who would be the biggest looser of votes?  I would have said the Tories would loose more, but many traditional labour strongholds were big Brexit supporters, so I don't know.

The risk is that this would let Corbyn into power - and we would have the same Brexit mess (as his party is also split down the middle on the Brexit issue) - but have a far worse economic (John MacDonald), law and order/home affairs/immigration (Diane Abbott) and foreign policy (Emily Thornberry (= Lady Emily Nugee)).  They would bankrupt the country for a generation.

For many of us on these forums, those of us who enjoy shooting and fieldsports might also like to think about their views on fieldsports, private gun ownership and similar issues.

10 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Their vision is totalitarian, no arguing with Brussels, a very limited version of democracy (or none at all) and complete erosion of national identity and culture.
A quasi socialist 4 th reich.

That does seem to be the way they are looking.

Edited July 10, 2018 by JohnfromUK

[Rewulf]

Apparently, the 1922 committee now has the required 48 letters for a vote of no confidence.

[12gauge82]

55 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Farage speaks very well, and has some good ideas, but somehow he has never been able to form a traditional 'party' - just a 'one man band'.  I suspect it is his 'personality' that keeps it that way.  Yes, they have had a significant number of candidates, who have done OK in both European Parliament and local elections (I have voted for them myself), but they have never won a seat in Westminster, and Farage has never presented a 'team' (in my eyes anyway) that could credibly form a Government.  E.g., they never seemed to have a foreign affairs spokesman, home affairs spokesman, economics spokesman etc.  It was always the 'one man band'.

There is no realistic prospect of UKIP ever winning a majority.  They might win a seat or two at Westminster, but it hasn't happened to date.  All they will do is take votes from other parties - the question is who would be the biggest looser of votes?  I would have said the Tories would loose more, but many traditional labour strongholds were big Brexit supporters, so I don't know.

The risk is that this would let Corbyn into power - and we would have the same Brexit mess (as his party is also split down the middle on the Brexit issue) - but have a far worse economic (John MacDonald), law and order/home affairs/immigration (Diane Abbott) and foreign policy (Emily Thornberry (= Lady Emily Nugee)).  They would bankrupt the country for a generation.

For many of us on these forums, those of us who enjoy shooting and fieldsports might also like to think about their views on fieldsports, private gun ownership and similar issues.

That does seem to be the way they are looking.

You make a very valid point, however, in my opinion, if we don't get away from this two party mentality, governments will continue to do what they want and ignore the voters, I think the only reason we were given the referendum in the first place was in part to the growing popularity of UKIP, if May doesn't deliver Brexit then they need to feel the voters wrath like never before, otherwise I genuinely worry we could one day see civil unrest or a far right party in this country's future.

[ditchman]

What was Boris doing allll yesterday holed up at the foreighn office res'........................racking up a phone bill i rekon ?...the games affoot....

Edited July 10, 2018 by ditchman

[yod dropper]

Did we really think the Establishment would actually allow us to leave the EU?

The EU has been consistent in what we can expect so it should come as no surprise that we won't get a dream deal, Oowee and Jaymo have been consistent on this throughout.  The EU's number one priority is the integrity of the European project and any deal that threatens that politically cannot be accepted.  However, had we set on a course of honouring the referendum and actually leaving then this shouldn't really have been as much of a problem.

Unfortunately, parliament is not representative of the electorate with at least 3:1 having wished to stay in the EU, it was always unlikely they would put our wishes ahead of theirs.  Our case and bargaining position has been undermined from those within including politicians briefing against the UK in Brussels.

It looks as if the Prime Minister has based her calculations on a fear of a Corbyn government but I'd question if they've properly considered if Labour know this and he steps down to be replaced with somebody more electable.  I feel as if she is taking the electorate for granted and as fools.  It appears very much like both the Conservatives and Labour have reneged on their mainfesto promises about leaving the EU.  In future, unless we do actually leave, my voting will be based solely on the candidates views on membership of the EU, if needs be I will spoil my ballot paper.  

[JohnfromUK]

20 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

in my opinion, if we don't get away from this two party mentality

In many ways I agree ........ but the 'two parties' at present are what we have.  There is no realistic possibility of any other party being able to form a government; so the choice is;

• Tory - somewhat 'right of centre' (theoretically anyway) and split near 50/50 on Brexit
• Labour - left of centre' (and in my view likely to be quite a long way left of centre - also split probably about 50/50 on Brexit

Then they might well end up in coalition - where the partner choices are;

• SNP - Well 'left of centre' - and strongly Remain - currently 35 MPs
• LibDem - mildly 'left of centre' - and strongly Remain - currently 12 MPs
• Welsh Nationist (Plaid Cymru) - 'left of centre' and currently only 4 MPs and Remainers (I think) despite Wales overall voting Brexit
• DUP - 'right of centre' and basically Brexit - but issues over border currently 10 MPs and at present in 'pact' with Tories

So with both main parties near enough 50/50 divided between Brexit and Remain ...... and 50 odd possible 'smaller party votes for Remain against 10 for Brexit, there is a BIG problem in getting a good Brexit for either of the two parties.

Edited July 10, 2018 by JohnfromUK

[oowee]

7 hours ago, Mice! said:

I kind of see what your saying, but manufacturing is already being done at lower cost abroad, there aren't many companies that aren't already using India and china, plus others to produce parts at a fraction of the cost compared to being made in Britain, so i don't see how us leaving Europe affects this.

 

Manufacturing abroad is often the only way to stay competitive so long as we keep as much of the IP here, in design, standards and know how. The IP will slowly be eroded (as the US knows too well) but the longer it takes the more pressure rises on low cost producing countries to increase their own costs. Being in a large club (effectively a buying group, or trade block) you can demand higher standards and effectively use these as a tool of restrictive trade. These restrictions have the effect of pushing up prices for low cost suppliers. Added together with transport costs these 'profit / cost margin' products provide us with employment opportunities, fulfilling orders that are not cost effective for others (final assembly being a good example).

We don't need to be in the EU to do this any large trading block will do. The EU is simply the most developed and obvious. If we have a common rule book (currently on offer to the EU) we can effectively have the same power of control without being in the EU but as currently proposed we would have to accept that we won't write the rules. 

The future must be in knowledge based industry but to stay ahead we need to drive the knowledge base and educational attainment. 

3 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

what industry do you work in oowee?

I am retired. I worked for Government advising on foreign investment to the UK. 

[Rewulf]

16 minutes ago, yod dropper said:

Did we really think the Establishment would actually allow us to leave the EU?

 

As much as we are being told different, it isnt actually up to them.
It was a proportional 'peoples' vote, so even though it was claimed at times to be advisory, the ultimate message from both sides was , whatever you vote, vote wisely, because this WILL be enacted, and we will not get this chance again 'in a generation'

Now, many did expect some wriggling, but when it became apparent that the sky didnt fall in straight afterwards, I was pretty confident we would get a good clean break, I still do.
It can be done with the agreement of the political parties, or it can be done over their ashes.
You could even make a mockery of democracy and run the Ref again, I believe Leave would still win.
All they are doing at the moment is destroying their own credibility, by dithering and pandering to Brussels.
They are harming industry by not making clear HOW Brexit will work, part of this is down to the EUs inflexibility.

In all seriousness, what would it have taken to draft up some proposals by the end of 2016 and set our stall out, with a real intention of a no deal scenario, instead, we are actually no further forward.

[Smokersmith]

I can't see who will lead us out of this ...

The Tories have always been split on Europe, and cannot govern through with this level of polarisation. The Labour alternative lacks credibility.

Perhaps we need Lord Sugar to do a Trump !!

 

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Smokersmith said:

I can't see who will lead us out of this ...

Roughly half the population (48%) want to be led to remain - and the other half (52%) want to be led to leave.  When the number wanting to go in opposite directions is near 50/50, it will always be near impossible to go either way ..........

Like you, I can't see who can lead us out of this (though it must be by the 'leave' route because that is how the vote went) - or how it can be done without serious political problems.

• May has a split party and is teetering and can't get anything other than woolly compromise through parliament - unless she could get labour support (which they, or at least most  of them won't)
• Corbyn has a split party and has barmy ideas and has chosen colleagues who no one wants/trusts (he has also in fact had even more resignations than May) - he is also 56 seats behind May in Parliament.  It is highly unlikely he could push Brexit through unless the Tories supported him (which they or at least most of them wouldn't) because his 'natural allies' in the SNP are all staunch remainers.
• All potential coalition partners except the DUP are staunch remainers (about 50 seats) and would not support any Brexit deal pushed through by either party.

So there we have a democratic decision stalled by the intransigence of our democratic representatives.

 

[krugerandsmith]

2 hours ago, ditchman said:

What was Boris doing allll yesterday holed up at the foreighn office res'........................racking up a phone bill i rekon ?...the games affoot....

Thought we were Metric??

[yod dropper]

13 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

So there we have a democratic decision stalled by the intransigence of our democratic representatives.

I am absolutely staggered that so many of our MPs are happy to reverse the result of the referendum, let alone water it down.  If this were happening in any number of countries around the world we (and the EU) would be crying foul about autocratic, undemocratic regimes - and we have done in the past.  That there isn't genuine public outrage is unbelievable.

[JohnfromUK]

3 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Apparently, the 1922 committee now has the required 48 letters for a vote of no confidence.

Nothing has been reported on this .......... so I suspect that they haven't ........... yet.

[Rewulf]

5 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Nothing has been reported on this .......... so I suspect that they haven't ........... yet.

https://www.politicalite.com/tories/reports-may-face-no-confidence-vote-48-letters/

Could be fake news I suppose, but having the required letters, and actually using them are 2 different things.
The committee may give it a few days to see how the land lies.
Personally I think she will step aside.

[12gauge82]

3 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

In many ways I agree ........ but the 'two parties' at present are what we have.  There is no realistic possibility of any other party being able to form a government; so the choice is;

• Tory - somewhat 'right of centre' (theoretically anyway) and split near 50/50 on Brexit
• Labour - left of centre' (and in my view likely to be quite a long way left of centre - also split probably about 50/50 on Brexit

Then they might well end up in coalition - where the partner choices are;

• SNP - Well 'left of centre' - and strongly Remain - currently 35 MPs
• LibDem - mildly 'left of centre' - and strongly Remain - currently 12 MPs
• Welsh Nationist (Plaid Cymru) - 'left of centre' and currently only 4 MPs and Remainers (I think) despite Wales overall voting Brexit
• DUP - 'right of centre' and basically Brexit - but issues over border currently 10 MPs and at present in 'pact' with Tories

So with both main parties near enough 50/50 divided between Brexit and Remain ...... and 50 odd possible 'smaller party votes for Remain against 10 for Brexit, there is a BIG problem in getting a good Brexit for either of the two parties.

Again I can totally see where your coming from and why you see it as you do, for me though, the far bigger risk comes not even from Corbyn and pals, but from any government that will not listen to it's people, that's a dictatorship, the referendum, although only won by a small percentage, could not have been clearer, it was one of the most attended votes in history and we chose to leave, despite all the establishments "advise", to ignore the people's will on something as big as a national referendum can not be forgotten by me, and I'm sure many others will feel the same if it comes to pass.

[Smokersmith]

Just now, 12gauge82 said:

the referendum, although only won by a small percentage, could not have been clearer,

Clear the country is divided ...

[12gauge82]

37 minutes ago, Smokersmith said:

Clear the country is divided ...

That's not the point, there was a referendum, in a democracy the majority decision should be respected, if it had gone the other way there wouldn't be a chance you'd see any form of back sliding as is happening now, like I said earlier, the bigger issue here, even bigger than brexit itself is I see democracy and the people being stepped on, regardless if you voted leave or remain.

[oowee]

22 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

That's not the point, there was a referendum, in a democracy the majority decision should be respected, if it had gone the other way there wouldn't be a chance you'd see any form of back sliding as is happening now, like I said earlier, the bigger issue here, even bigger than brexit itself is I see democracy and the people being stepped on, regardless if you voted leave or remain.

Surely if we voted leave and we leave then that is the democratic action delivered. We did not vote to end ties and links and trade with the EU. The government that we elected is moving to deliver brexit (as requested) and maintain the best arrangement for that exit.