Brexit - merged threads

[JohnfromUK]

23 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

And I really fail to understand why these people's professional opinions are just poo-pood away, or casually dismissed as 'Project Fear'.

Because some (also very respected professional people have a quite different opinion;

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/26/mervyn-king-britain-should-be-more-upbeat-about-brexit

[Scully]

38 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

But we do know. We might not know how everything will pan out in 20 years, but the immediate effects of a proper 'no deal' hard Brexit would be  traumatic in the extreme. All the people whose job it is to know about these things say the same thing. Yes, you'll find a few like Minford who thinks everything will be rosy once we've 'run down' British car  plants and other assorted manufacturing industries (not to mention financial services) but pretty much every other economist and trade expert (around the globe) who isn't sticking straws in their hair is in agreement that for Britain to crash out of the EU would be very bad news indeed.

And I really fail to understand why these people's professional opinions are just poo-pood away, or casually dismissed as 'Project Fear'. If 95 percent of gamekeepers you knew along with the chap from the Game Conservation Trust were to tell you that your land wasn't suitable for grey partridges to breed on and that such a program would be a waste of time and money, of course, you could try and prove them wrong. And one time out of a hundred you might be right. But the overwhelming majority of the time you' wouldn't be right, because working keepers and professional scientists know their jobs - that's why they get paid to to them. Professional economists and trade experts are no different.

But that’s just it, you don’t know; no one does. It may well happen, but equally it may not. I’ve never subscribed to the everything will be rosy anymore than I have to the apocalyptic version....the fact of the matter is no one knows with any certainty what will happen. 

The vast majority of  those supposedly in the know are basing their assumptions that everyone has their personal finances uppermost in their decisions regarding Brexit. I don’t, and never have; I voted on the basis that in my opinion the EU is totally  insidiously undemocratic and corrupt, and it is that basis on which I voted. 

As I’ve said, EU membership is no guarantee against recession or redundancy. I want us to leave,  deal or not, and then get on with getting on. 

Edited December 6, 2018 by Scully

[12gauge82]

I don't get why all these remoaners can't seem to grasp the economic argument is irrelevant, the country was given the governments view, we were warned of all manner of from and gloom, the country disagreed and exercised the largest ever vote, we should be leaving full stop and that means the single market, the common market, free movement of people and everything else being a EU member entails, Mays so called deal does none of that.

3 minutes ago, Scully said:

But that’s just it, you don’t know; no one does. It may well happen, but equally it may not. I’ve never subscribed to the everything will be rosy anymore than I have to the apocalyptic version....the fact of the matter is no one knows with any certainty what will happen. 

The vast majority of  those supposedly in the know are basing their assumptions that everyone has their personal finances uppermost in their decisions regarding Brexit. I don’t, and never have; I voted on the basis that in my opinion the EU is totally is insidiously undemocratic and corrupt, and it is that basis in which I voted. 

As I’ve said, EU membership is no guarantee against recession or redundancy. I want us to leave,  deal or not, and then get on with getting on. 

Beat me to it.

[oowee]

Not talking about the Brexit economics just the practicalities of process.

Just take a look at the work that companies will have to do between now and March. Many of these companies do not have the systems and people in place to deal with 'Hard Brexit' yet. Yes they can buy services in but there are not enough service companies to cope and we do not know what the WTO terms will be. 

This is the reality for a company that has the systems and people in place to deal with the process and they choose to close down.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/mini-rolls-royce-uk-factories-shut-weeks-post-brexit

 

If we are going to go for it give the companies a chance let them have notice.

[12gauge82]

14 minutes ago, oowee said:

Not talking about the Brexit economics just the practicalities of process.

Just take a look at the work that companies will have to do between now and March. Many of these companies do not have the systems and people in place to deal with 'Hard Brexit' yet. Yes they can buy services in but there are not enough service companies to cope and we do not know what the WTO terms will be. 

This is the reality for a company that has the systems and people in place to deal with the process and they choose to close down.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/mini-rolls-royce-uk-factories-shut-weeks-post-brexit

 

If we are going to go for it give the companies a chance let them have notice.

Which is why we offer the EU a free trade deal, in the same way every other trade block in the world works, if they refuse, it should be hard brexit time.

Turn this around, image if we were to enter a trade deal with say China, all we'd need to do is allow anyone in the country that has a Chinese passport, they could claim benefits, instantly use our NHS that generations of UK residents have contributed all their life to, allow Chinese courts to have supremacy over ours and we could only trade with who they told us to, they could also implement laws that we must follow as they saw fit, we'd also have to pay them billions every year for the privilege. We'd never do it, everyone would think it madness, so why do people in this country think it's so great that we do precisely that with the EU, it's not a normal way to do business and no other country outside of the EU trades like that, it's crazy.

[Scully]

20 minutes ago, oowee said:

Not talking about the Brexit economics just the practicalities of process.

Just take a look at the work that companies will have to do between now and March. Many of these companies do not have the systems and people in place to deal with 'Hard Brexit' yet. Yes they can buy services in but there are not enough service companies to cope and we do not know what the WTO terms will be. 

This is the reality for a company that has the systems and people in place to deal with the process and they choose to close down.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/mini-rolls-royce-uk-factories-shut-weeks-post-brexit

 

If we are going to go for it give the companies a chance let them have notice.

I note you wrote ‘they choose to close down.’

Werent we all given notice in 2016? 

[mick miller]

This is the central issue. Whilst democracy should be about the people, communties, cohesion, sovereignty all those 'nice' things it seems to actually boil down to 'business'. We hear 'business can't handle it', 'business needs immigration'. Well, democracy is more than just business, democracy is supposed to represent people and when you can't charge a fair amount because you're being undercut or the environment you grew up in looks more like down town Mogadishu than how you remember it, well you get a bit miffed.

However, you have to counter that with 'we're all ****** if we lose our jobs'.

Tricky innit?

[oowee]

4 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Which is why we offer the EU a free trade deal, in the same way every other trade block in the world works, if they refuse, it should be hard brexit time.

Turn this around, image if we were to enter a trade deal with say China, all we'd need to do is allow anyone in the country that has a Chinese passport, they could claim benefits, instantly use our NHS that generations of UK residents have contributed all their life to, allow Chinese courts to have supremacy over ours and we could only trade with who they told us to, they could also implement laws that we must follow as they saw fit, we'd also have to pay them billions every year for the privilege. We'd never do it, everyone would think it madness, so why do people in this country think it's so great that we do precisely that with the EU, it's not a normal way to do business and no other country outside of the EU trades like that, it's crazy.

That sounds like the basis of a new trade deal with China. India next they just want passports. 

[12gauge82]

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

That sounds like the basis of a new trade deal with China. India next they just want passports. 

😂👍

7 minutes ago, mick miller said:

This is the central issue. Whilst democracy should be about the people, communties, cohesion, sovereignty all those 'nice' things it seems to actually boil down to 'business'. We hear 'business can't handle it', 'business needs immigration'. Well, democracy is more than just business, democracy is supposed to represent people and when you can't charge a fair amount because you're being undercut or the environment you grew up in looks more like down town Mogadishu than how you remember it, well you get a bit miffed.

However, you have to counter that with 'we're all f&%$ed if we lose our jobs'.

Tricky innit?

That's another large issue the western world is facing, very large business is gaining at the expense to the little man, it is coming before democracy and your average working Joe feels rightly that they have been forgotten, I personally think it is partly behind the brexit outcome and again it shows the contempt the government holds the working man when they ignore the referendum result, favouring to "side" with business over what the people want.

[mick miller]

I believe, this is the reason for the Brexit outcome, and the election of Donald J. Trump (which is a little odd as he is the epitome of screw the little guy). MP's are still failing to grasp this.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

6 minutes ago, mick miller said:

I believe, this is the reason for the Brexit outcome, and the election of Donald J. Trump (which is a little odd as he is the epitome of screw the little guy). MP's are still failing to grasp this.

Trump was also elected by an awful lot of people who were disgruntled with the professional politicians.

[oowee]

2 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Trump was also elected by an awful lot of people who were disgruntled with the professional politicians.

Think he has sacked most of them 🙂

 

[Retsdon]

1 hour ago, Scully said:

I voted on the basis that in my opinion the EU is totally  insidiously undemocratic and corrupt, and it is that basis on which I voted. 

And had I had a vote I would have voted the exact same way for the exact same reasons. In retrospect though, knowing what I've learned since about global trade and how it works, I think that although my vote might have been  right in principle it would have been wrong in practice. Better to have stayed in the EU, taken the federalists in Brussels head on, and led a revolt to devolve power back to the sovereign nations. It's not like we wouldn't have had allies. All the eastern members would have been natural allies as - these days - would be Spain, Greece and Italy, and once Macron goes, quite possibly France too. Shown a bit of leadership and with a bit of momentum who knows what other countries might not have joined the call for devolution of power from Brussels. Instead we bottled it and voted to run away. And although it was an understandable decision, I don't think history will judge us kindly. Just how I see it these days...

[Newbie to this]

25 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

And had I had a vote I would have voted the exact same way for the exact same reasons. In retrospect though, knowing what I've learned since about global trade and how it works, I think that although my vote might have been  right in principle it would have been wrong in practice. Better to have stayed in the EU, taken the federalists in Brussels head on, and led a revolt to devolve power back to the sovereign nations. It's not like we wouldn't have had allies. All the eastern members would have been natural allies as - these days - would be Spain, Greece and Italy, and once Macron goes, quite possibly France too. Shown a bit of leadership and with a bit of momentum who knows what other countries might not have joined the call for devolution of power from Brussels. Instead we bottled it and voted to run away. And although it was an understandable decision, I don't think history will judge us kindly. Just how I see it these days...

But your suggestion of staying in and fighting them from within, would require a EUsceptic government, which the UK doesn't have.

Edited December 6, 2018 by Newbie to this

[Danger-Mouse]

18 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

 Instead we bottled it and voted to run away. And although it was an understandable decision, I don't think history will judge us kindly. Just how I see it these days...

We didn't bottle anything. Cameron went to negotiate a better deal and was basically told to bog off. That told us what most already knew/suspected, that the EU is largely unreformable unless you want "more Europe". They simply do not care about anyone that does not support their federalist vision of europe. The only way they may reform is if they suffer some more severe setbacks, ie other countries voting to leave. For that to happen someone had to take the brave first step and leave. That should be us.

No one knows what the future holds but the only ones who possibly lack bottle are those who chose the status quo.

[motty]

12 minutes ago, Danger-Mouse said:

We didn't bottle anything. Cameron went to negotiate a better deal and was basically told to bog off. That told us what most already knew/suspected, that the EU is largely unreformable unless you want "more Europe". They simply do not care about anyone that does not support their federalist vision of europe. The only way they may reform is if they suffer some more severe setbacks, ie other countries voting to leave. For that to happen someone had to take the brave first step and leave. That should be us.

No one knows what the future holds but the only ones who possibly lack bottle are those who chose the status quo.

Amen!

[Retsdon]

3 minutes ago, Danger-Mouse said:

We didn't bottle anything. Cameron went to negotiate a better deal and was basically told to bog off.

Because he went, cap in hand,  looking for some kind of special dispensation. Had he got off his backside and done the political spadework to put together an alliance of countries who all wanted what he was asking for it might have been a far different story. And he could have done.

But really, Cameron's 'renegotiation' was just a sop to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party rather than any real attempt to to shift the balances of power within the EU. And because Brussels could that it was all about domestic politics, he wasn't taken seriously. So  here we are....

[oowee]

53 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Because he went, cap in hand,  looking for some kind of special dispensation. Had he got off his backside and done the political spadework to put together an alliance of countries who all wanted what he was asking for it might have been a far different story. And he could have done.

But really, Cameron's 'renegotiation' was just a sop to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party rather than any real attempt to to shift the balances of power within the EU. And because Brussels could that it was all about domestic politics, he wasn't taken seriously. So  here we are....

^^^^^^This. We as a nation have been disengaged from the whole model. An engaged politician could have whipped up support in the East. Cameron alone secured the option to avoid ever closer union for the UK. The deals are there to be done. 

Now it's water through the channel and we are leaving to the greener side of the hill. 

[Danger-Mouse]

1 hour ago, Retsdon said:

Because he went, cap in hand,  looking for some kind of special dispensation. Had he got off his backside and done the political spadework to put together an alliance of countries who all wanted what he was asking for it might have been a far different story. And he could have done.

But really, Cameron's 'renegotiation' was just a sop to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party rather than any real attempt to to shift the balances of power within the EU. And because Brussels could that it was all about domestic politics, he wasn't taken seriously. So  here we are....

A pretty accurate assesment. Maybe he could have negotiated something if he'd worked harder. However he was confident we would never vote to leave. I believe the ancient Greeks called that hubris and boy did he learn that lesson the day after the referendum vote. (Maybe he should have done Classics rather than PPE)

Ahhh, finally a politician who actually understands. Well said Johnny Mercer.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1055453/brexit-news-johnny-mercer

And one who clearly doesn't . . .

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1055357/labour-mp-brexit-debate-pity-plea-mary-creagh-twitter

 

Edited December 6, 2018 by Danger-Mouse
more stuff

[Scully]

10 hours ago, Retsdon said:

And had I had a vote I would have voted the exact same way for the exact same reasons. In retrospect though, knowing what I've learned since about global trade and how it works, I think that although my vote might have been  right in principle it would have been wrong in practice. Better to have stayed in the EU, taken the federalists in Brussels head on, and led a revolt to devolve power back to the sovereign nations. It's not like we wouldn't have had allies. All the eastern members would have been natural allies as - these days - would be Spain, Greece and Italy, and once Macron goes, quite possibly France too. Shown a bit of leadership and with a bit of momentum who knows what other countries might not have joined the call for devolution of power from Brussels. Instead we bottled it and voted to run away. And although it was an understandable decision, I don't think history will judge us kindly. Just how I see it these days...

‘Stayed in the EU and led a revolt’! Seriously?  That is just so incredibly ridiculous in its naivety if you are in fact serious. .think it through please! There’s only one Farage.....I haven’t seen anyone else taking on the role of revolutionist to the same extent from any other nation, have you? 

I don’t care how history judges us, but personally, given time and a positive outlook, I think it will be one of the best decisions the nation has ever made. 

[oowee]

48 minutes ago, Scully said:

‘Stayed in the EU and led a revolt’! Seriously?  That is just so incredibly ridiculous in its naivety if you are in fact serious. .think it through please! There’s only one Farage.....I haven’t seen anyone else taking on the role of revolutionist to the same extent from any other nation, have you? 

I don’t care how history judges us, but personally, given time and a positive outlook, I think it will be one of the best decisions the nation has ever made. 

Its not unreasonable to imagine a that a coalition of leaders from Eastern Europe with the support of the larger voting power of the UK could have been significant in turning policy on immigration and modernisation within the European Council. 

The power of the socialist and democratic groups within the Union would be a problem but new groups can be formed where there is a policy driver from the Council itself. 

Given time I am sure we will get over it although the costs are rising which will increase the lag time. 

[old man]

15 hours ago, oowee said:

That sounds like the basis of a new trade deal with China. India next they just want passports.

No problem. Available in Greece for anyone who has 500 Euro?

15 hours ago, 12gauge82 said:

😂👍

That's another large issue the western world is facing, very large business is gaining at the expense to the little man, it is coming before democracy and your average working Joe feels rightly that they have been forgotten, I personally think it is partly behind the brexit outcome and again it shows the contempt the government holds the working man when they ignore the referendum result, favouring to "side" with business over what the people want.

👍

[old man]

14 hours ago, Retsdon said:

Because he went, cap in hand,  looking for some kind of special dispensation. Had he got off his backside and done the political spadework to put together an alliance of countries who all wanted what he was asking for it might have been a far different story. And he could have done.

But really, Cameron's 'renegotiation' was just a sop to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party rather than any real attempt to to shift the balances of power within the EU. And because Brussels could that it was all about domestic politics, he wasn't taken seriously. So  here we are....

Why should we expect anything less than fifth rate from our politicians, that's just how they have become used to performing over the years, fifth rate in their book equates to platinum star.

They can't wait for this to be over so they can return to sleeping interspersed with sessions in the trough. Panic by them is seen as meaningful activity.

[Rewulf]

4 hours ago, Scully said:

I don’t care how history judges us, but personally, given time and a positive outlook, I think it will be one of the best decisions the nation has ever made. 

+1

 

3 hours ago, oowee said:

Its not unreasonable to imagine a that a coalition of leaders from Eastern Europe with the support of the larger voting power of the UK could have been significant in turning policy on immigration and modernisation within the European Council. 

You mean like the Visigrad group , who have rejected third world immigration quotas ?
The group that is about to be sanctioned by the EU for not doing as its told ?
Also the group of countries that have taken most financial benefits from EU membership, yet with Brussels holding the purse strings are still defiant ?
The EU doesnt take 'No's ' it expects obedience, economically DEMANDS it.
Give it its own army , under the control of the commission, and youve got all the ingredients to turn the clock back 80 years.

[oowee]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

+1

 

You mean like the Visigrad group , who have rejected third world immigration quotas ?
The group that is about to be sanctioned by the EU for not doing as its told ?
Also the group of countries that have taken most financial benefits from EU membership, yet with Brussels holding the purse strings are still defiant ?
The EU doesnt take 'No's ' it expects obedience, economically DEMANDS it.
Give it its own army , under the control of the commission, and youve got all the ingredients to turn the clock back 80 years.

Members do what is agreed or face sanction. Nothing wrong with that. The members set the policy.