Deaths

[toontastic]

2 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I've missed that one, I'm sure there are plenty thinking the same, but why would you expect full pay? I think the furlough scheme was a great thing to break the cycle but short term.

There's always someone he wants it all ways. Me I got made redundant the week before lockdown and I want to get back to work. 

[Mice!]

Just now, toontastic said:

There's always someone he wants it all ways. Me I got made redundant the week before lockdown and I want to get back to work. 

The school my wife works at have been doing a rota, they are only really childminders, looking after key workers kids, they can all be asked to come in though at any time, but its been done really well.

 

[toontastic]

8 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Those who are reluctant to return until we have a vaccine - do they know something we don't? When is the vaccine arriving? Will one be found at all? 

I saw a scientist discuss this. He said we may have one by the summer or we may never get one. He mentioned the common cold and SARS as examples of how difficult it is to create a vaccine.

[Mice!]

4 minutes ago, toontastic said:

Me I got made redundant the week before lockdown

Have you asked your former employer about the furlough scheme,  people have gone back in your situation and been paid.

[toontastic]

Just now, Mice! said:

Have you asked your former employer about the furlough scheme,  people have gone back in your situation and been paid.

The company no longer exists.

[Raja Clavata]

The percentage of deaths in care homes across Europe was cited as between 37% and 52% several weeks ago, so no real surprise on the ratios at home.

Clearly the lock down has not been effective for care homes.

On the subject of furlough, there are some overtly trying to take the **** and others covertly - a mate of mine was telling me today he spoke to a guy who has furloughed his entire company, including himself, and is using the company CNC machines to switch production to a product which has become popular in lockdown - he was boasting how well he's doing from it 😞

[Mungler]

The problem with furlough is :

1. it’s really expensive 

2. it enables everyone not to work and if we don’t get everyone back to work / normal, the phone won’t start to ring again anywhere and if the phones not ringing and you don’t need your staff in then it’s a self fulfilling prophecy.

3. it won’t alter the ensuing mass redundancies, it just adds an extra tax payer funded cost in the middle

 

 

[Lord v]

The subtle shift is that employers will have to start to fund a proportion of the furlough cheque from August. 

Plus the proposed change so that employees can work for their employer while in furlough and the pay is split between the two. 

Splits for both to be announced. But it will gently force businesses to open up. (for better or worse....) 

[Raja Clavata]

Preaching to the choir on furlough. Something just flashed up on my phone about draft plans to recoup the costs through tax hikes and pay freezes, mentioned a figure of £600B.

Kinda takes my previous concerns about the economic effect of Brexit clean off the table in one fowl swoop.

That's circa 20% of our 2019 GDP and God knows what percentage of our 2020 GDP based on what it ends up as (it was supposed to go just north of £3T this year).

 

[Raja Clavata]

So, with this £600,000,000,000 COVID bill to the UK, remembering these are costs only and don't account for the slump in GDP, let's assume 100,000 people die with COVID in the UK before a vaccine is available.

That's a cost of £6,000,000 to the UK taxpayer for every single death. I've always known life was precious, but I didn't know it was quite that precious.

If we assume there are ~35M taxpayers in the UK that is the equivalent of each and every one of them taking on personal debt of £17,000 on average.

My conclusion is that if the good ship Britannia was actually a ship, there'd currently be a mass scramble for the life rafts...

[Cosmicblue]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

The thing that really get's me here is that there is proof that the numbers we are being quoted for the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK is way lower than the reality.

Why?   Because the UK stats only include deaths where the victim has tested positive for the virus and ignores all the death certificates issued outside of hospitals where the virus has also claimed victims. 

 

[AVB]

14 minutes ago, Cosmicblue said:

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

The thing that really get's me here is that there is proof that the numbers we are being quoted for the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK is way lower than the reality.

Why?   Because the UK stats only include deaths where the victim has tested positive for the virus and ignores all the death certificates issued outside of hospitals where the virus has also claimed victims. 

 

Not true. Since some time in April It includes any death where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. And there have been many cases reported where doctors are putting Covid on a death certificate despite the patient never showing any symptoms of it. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by AVB

[Raja Clavata]

36 minutes ago, AVB said:

Not true. Since some time in April It includes any death where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. And there have been many cases reported where doctors are putting Covid on a death certificate despite the patient never showing any symptoms of it. 

Agreed. The ONS numbers are about the most accurate we can hope for at the moment. By definition this will be imprecise but we appear to be much cleaner and transparent in all this compared to, dare I say, most other countries.

[7daysinaweek]

4 hours ago, Cosmicblue said:

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

The thing that really get's me here is that there is proof that the numbers we are being quoted for the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK is way lower than the reality.

Why?   Because the UK stats only include deaths where the victim has tested positive for the virus and ignores all the death certificates issued outside of hospitals where the virus has also claimed victims. 

 

 

3 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Agreed. The ONS numbers are about the most accurate we can hope for at the moment. By definition this will be imprecise but we appear to be much cleaner and transparent in all this compared to, dare I say, most other countries.

 

3 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Agreed. The ONS numbers are about the most accurate we can hope for at the moment. By definition this will be imprecise but we appear to be much cleaner and transparent in all this compared to, dare I say, most other countries.

👍

Changes regarding the recording of confirmed and suspected CV19 deaths came into effect on the 26/03/20 in amendment to the Coronavirus act 2020

(Below) From the British Medical Association (BMA) 

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2324/bma-verification-of-death-vod-april-2020.pdf

 

Certification of Death After a death has been verified, a certificate (Medical Certificate of Cause of Death – MCCD) must be completed and submitted to the local registrar of births, marriages and deaths. The certificate must be completed by a doctor who is registered (including temporary registration) and licensed to practice with the GMC. In addition to other details required on the certificate, the doctor must provide to the best of their knowledge and belief a cause of death. The cause entered is a matter of clinical judgement, determined by weighing up the patient’s recent and past medical history and the circumstances of their death. When a doctor cannot reasonably give a likely cause of death the case must be submitted to the coroner for investigation which may include a post-mortem examination of the body to establish a cause of death. Under COVID-19 arrangements, where the GP has completed the MCCD, it will be emailed to the registrar’s office, rather than being collected from the surgery. In those cases where the doctor is confident on medical grounds that a particular cause of death is likely then that should be entered on the MCCD. COVID-19 is an acceptable direct or underlying cause of death for the purposes of completing the MCCD, even without the results of a positive test, and it is important that likely COVID-19 deaths are reported as such via the registrar. The rules surrounding the completion of the MCCD have changed following the Coronavirus

Hope this helps

 

 

[Smokersmith]

6 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

So, with this £600,000,000,000 COVID bill to the UK, remembering these are costs only and don't account for the slump in GDP, let's assume 100,000 people die with COVID in the UK before a vaccine is available.

That's a cost of £6,000,000 to the UK taxpayer for every single death. I've always known life was precious, but I didn't know it was quite that precious.

If we assume there are ~35M taxpayers in the UK that is the equivalent of each and every one of them taking on personal debt of £17,000 on average.

My conclusion is that if the good ship Britannia was actually a ship, there'd currently be a mass scramble for the life rafts...

Remember that the number of deaths is after the countermeasures. If there was no lockdown the deaths would have continued to double every 3 days till the NHS was over capacity, and normal health issues would also add to the fatality rate as people wouldn’t get treatment for strokes etc.

It doesn’t feel like a realistic or acceptable option.

[AVB]

26 minutes ago, Smokersmith said:

Remember that the number of deaths is after the countermeasures. If there was no lockdown the deaths would have continued to double every 3 days till the NHS was over capacity, and normal health issues would also add to the fatality rate as people wouldn’t get treatment for strokes etc.

It doesn’t feel like a realistic or acceptable option.

Seeing as the wonderful NHS has been cancelling operations left right and centre, including cancer Ops, not sure that deaths won’t be on the increase regardless. 

[Mungler]

The virus is going everywhere until there’s a vaccine or herd immunity. The lockdown was merely to slow is path and make sure the NHS had capacity.

And to think, we’re still in the honeymoon period...

[Vince Green]

11 hours ago, AVB said:

Not true. Since some time in April It includes any death where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. And there have been many cases reported where doctors are putting Covid on a death certificate despite the patient never showing any symptoms of it. 

This is a growing subject of debate elsewhere. Lots of people are reporting having relatives die with absolutely no evidence of corvid but being shocked to find corvid stated on the death certificate as cause of death.

The reason is simple, doctors are not going into care homes or seeing patients at home (or in their surgeries for that matter) at the moment.

So when the patient dies a post mortem is required by law to establish the cause of death because they have not been seen by a doctor prior to dying.

However patients who are stated as having died of corvid can be buried or cremated without the need for a post mortem during the present situation.

So doctors are being told to record unseen deaths as covid because the pathology depts at local hospitals couldn't cope with the extra workload of doing what they see as lots of unnecessary geriatric post mortems just to satisfy a legal requirement.

Its not Government policy its just doctors taking the path of least resistance and paperwork

Edited May 13, 2020 by Vince Green

[treetree]

On 12/05/2020 at 20:42, Raja Clavata said:

Clearly the lock down has not been effective for care homes.

Which is what angers me; our 'solution' was to have locked up healthy people for whom the risk is very low, and ruin an economy, while providing little protection for those most likely to die from the virus.

[millrace]

Hows this for a statistic to chew over....

Northern  Ireland deaths total....449

Of these 296 are in ages of 80 and over..

Next we have 132 in the 60 to 80 age group

This leaves 21 in the below 60 age category!!

Can someone tell me why we are destroying the future economy for a stat like this when at the very least under 50,s for example could continue working...

No one under 40 should continue to be furloughed,,,,this is now just economic madness!!!

 

[Mungler]

Been saying this all along but shouted down by the non thinkers.

Let’s see what everyone makes of it next year when they’re skint / unemployed / taxed through the nose and the government has run out of money to spend on the basic stuff like the NHS, the police, etc

Oh, don’t forget we’ve got Brexit to look forward to. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Mungler

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Vince Green said:

 

So when the patient dies a post mortem is required by law to establish the cause of death because they have not been seen by a doctor prior to dying.

However patients who are stated as having died of corvid can be buried or cremated without the need for a post mortem during the present situation.

I am not sure this is correct Vince. I thought a post mortem was only required if it was referred by doctor to coroner (likely suspicious circumstances or after recent surgery) or if requested by hospital in order to aid research. If you drop dead from a heart attack and a doctor is satisfied that it wasn’t suspicious then he wouldn’t refer to the coroner and a post mortem wouldn’t be carried out. 
 

Doesn't explain why they are blaming Covid though. 

[clangerman]

8 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Been saying this all along but shouted down by the non thinkers.

Let’s see what everyone makes of it next year when they’re skint / unemployed and the government has run out of money to spend on the stuff like the NHS, the police, etc

 

 

what nhs? the one that would be nonexistent with no lockdown because it was overwhelmed by cases even the non thinkers know it was not geared up to cope 

[Mice!]

17 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Been saying this all along but shouted down by the non thinkers.

Let’s see what everyone makes of it next year when they’re skint / unemployed / taxed through the nose and the government has run out of money to spend on the basic stuff like the NHS, the police, etc

Oh, don’t forget we’ve got Brexit to look forward to. 

I totally agreed with the original lockdown and furlough,  but when you look at the age groups its affecting mostly the plan to extend the furlough seems very strange.

People won't return to work getting paid to stay at home?

[Mungler]

8 minutes ago, clangerman said:

what nhs? the one that would be nonexistent with no lockdown because it was overwhelmed by cases even the non thinkers know it was not geared up to cope 

Of all the decisions and options none are easy, in fact all are dreadfully tough.

No one wants to say it out loud but whilst the NHS has effectively been shut to anyone else with a life threatening illness (of which there are  legion) it has in the main been there to just to usher out the over 80’s with Covid and as dreadfully exhausting and depressing as that must be. The medical egg heads no less than f-all about this virus and short of holding your hand and sticking you on a ventilator you’re on your own.

No one understands (because it has not been felt) that the poverty that will be caused by this over the next decade will claim more lives and from much wider demographics and people who haven’t yet lived a life.

Sweden appears to be the game in town to follow, but we only know that now with Hindsight and Sweden took the big gamble at the time.