New Brexit Thread

[Vince Green]

The B word seems to have been replaced  by the C word but Brexit has not gone away

While we have been preoccupied with viruses and death tolls huge shifts have been taking place within the economic dynamics holding the EU's rather fragile alliance together.

That may well be about to change

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/17/eu-risks-losing-germany-picks-constitutional-fight-death-euro/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

[TIGHTCHOKE]

I see there have been moves to implement delaying the negotiations, some people will do anything thing to spoil the dream of a free UK.

[Raja Clavata]

I was thinking to myself over the weekend, that if we could move beyond the past and onto the future around this then perhaps the mods would allow us to discuss?

Not sure that the post above by TIGHTCHOKE suggests that's feasible? 

[Teal]

There has been a sustained break, and although it has been quite refreshing not having it on the forum.

Raja is correct. On the terms he suggested we are willing to let this one have another chance, but it could be brief.

We have closed two previous threads, and this thread will be closed without warning if it goes the same way. There have been enough warnings, and this post is the only one this topic is getting.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Well I will comment as I see fit within the rules and guidance from the Moderators.

 

There have been moves from those that want to reverse the decision and it looks like trying to extend the negotiations are their latest attempt.

[Vince Green]

The way I see it, and the reason I started the thread, is because the financial impact of c-19 has created tensions within the EU that are likely to pull it apart anyway. You really need to read the article, Germany is calling time on the ECB saying no more printing money and if the ECB doesn't print money then Italy for one will go under. Spain probably too, but many of the minor states live on handouts from the EU.at the best of times.

Germany it appears, no longer cares about that. In itself a seismic shift because they appear to be cutting the other countries loose to go bust They realise, I believe, that the banking crisis that will surely follow will be too big for them all to survive. 

We don't have to do anything, sit on our hands and watch them slog it out. Its not our fight anymore, fortunately

I'm not given to praising Gordon Brown but thank heavens he blocked Tony Blair joining the Euro 

   

Edited May 18, 2020 by Vince Green

[panoma1]

It’s all about keeping our bottle now! The UK should do what is best for the future of the UK......The EU is the EU’s problem.........we’ve left!

[Raja Clavata]

5 hours ago, Teal said:

There has been a sustained break, and although it has been quite refreshing not having it on the forum.

Raja is correct. On the terms he suggested we are willing to let this one have another chance, but it could be brief.

We have closed two previous threads, and this thread will be closed without warning if it goes the same way. There have been enough warnings, and this post is the only one this topic is getting.

Thanks!

4 hours ago, Vince Green said:

The way I see it, and the reason I started the thread, is because the financial impact of c-19 has created tensions within the EU that are likely to pull it apart anyway. You really need to read the article, Germany is calling time on the ECB saying no more printing money and if the ECB doesn't print money then Italy for one will go under. Spain probably too, but many of the minor states live on handouts from the EU.at the best of times.

Germany it appears, no longer cares about that. In itself a seismic shift because they appear to be cutting the other countries loose to go bust They realise, I believe, that the banking crisis that will surely follow will be too big for them all to survive. 

We don't have to do anything, sit on our hands and watch them slog it out. Its not our fight anymore, fortunately

I'm not given to praising Gordon Brown but thank heavens he blocked Tony Blair joining the Euro 

   

To be consistent with my view all along, which has been that the EU is most likely doomed to failure regardless, I think it would make sense for us to get the negotiations over with ASAP and create as clean break as possible.

3 hours ago, panoma1 said:

It’s all about keeping our bottle now! The UK should do what is best for the future of the UK......The EU is the EU’s problem.........we’ve left!

I'm 100% behind this and no way should we be compromising on the fishing rights, for example!

[Danger-Mouse]

7 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

I see there have been moves to implement delaying the negotiations, some people will do anything thing to spoil the dream of a free UK.

Yeah Ed Davey and that gobs**** Ian Blackford (along with others) have written to Barnier. 

Not sure what they think it will achieve. It's not like Barnier has any power to change the UK Government's position. Thankfully their response is that there won't be any extension.

Staying in would cost us billions helping to bail out southern Europe and the EU would just refuse to discuss the deal until the Corona problem is dealt with. The only point of an extension is to, yet again,  try and overturn Brexit.

I'm starting to wonder if it will all be over by June. If the EU refuses to budge on this level playing field issue and fisheries then why bother with a further 6 months negotiations?

5 hours ago, Vince Green said:

 

I'm not given to praising Gordon Brown but thank heavens he blocked Tony Blair joining the Euro 

   

Yup, sold our gold but I'll give him that!

[Cheshirelad]

On a personal note, I would be absolutely devastated if the EU  continues to poke the German judiciary to the point where the EU goes boobs up and pear shaped. NOT! 

They will overstep the mark  again sooner or later, and the sooner the better. The EU without the UK and Germany will be game, set and match for the fascists in Brussels, and the sooner the better.

 

 

 

[Newbie to this]

25 minutes ago, Mr_Nobody said:

starting to wonder if it will all be over by June

Now there's some wishful thinking.

Hope you are right.

[Danger-Mouse]

10 hours ago, Newbie to this said:

Now there's some wishful thinking.

Hope you are right.

It appears that Mr Barnier has now accepted that he's not going to get his way over fishing and he will be going back to various European heads of state and telling them to drop the fishing access demands if they want a trade deal.

Interesting video from Jeff Taylor regarding the German constitutional court and the ECB and the situation with Italy.

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Danger-Mouse

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Very interesting!

[Vince Green]

Jeff Taylor is very good. factual and unemotive in his reporting 

[old man]

I just hope, without much conviction that our negotiators find some spine and do the right thing for us for a change?

[TIGHTCHOKE]

20 minutes ago, old man said:

I just hope, without much conviction that our negotiators find some spine and do the right thing for us for a change?

We can but hope!

[Vince Green]

1 hour ago, old man said:

I just hope, without much conviction that our negotiators find some spine and do the right thing for us for a change?

They are doing the right thing, all the British team have to do is keep on maintaining their position. The EU cannot negotiate, its like dealing with Ancient Rome. They expect to be able to dictate the terms to which we must gratefully agree. They have no mechanism for compromise because any compromise would have to be ratified by all the member states and that's never going to happen.

Now the weakness of Barnier's stance is becoming obvious he is finding himself increasingly on the back foot. No negotiation is fair, Theresa May and Ollie Robbins thought it would be like a friendly chat but in reality any negotiation is won by the most ruthless.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itE8zFvskbU

[panoma1]

1 hour ago, old man said:

I just hope, without much conviction that our negotiators find some spine and do the right thing for us for a change?

The UK were trying to negotiate from a position of weakness, prior to the last general election, we are on a more even (advantageous?) playing field now.......the UK negotiators don’t need to bend to the will of Barnier an co!

[JohnfromUK]

I have also read that Barnier has himself become more realistic about the EU not having the same fishing rights they had before we left -though to what extent they would compromise wasn't clear.  I think the problem will be that he has to get his negotiating instructions from the various countries and I recall Macron saying that France will demand no change on fishing and won't move on that - and I suspect that Spain will also want to retain fishing, so whilst Barnier might understand where we are coming from (which must be very obvious to anyone), he must also 'do what he is told' as he is only the middle man.

[Newbie to this]

2 hours ago, panoma1 said:

The UK were trying to negotiate from a position of weakness, prior to the last general election, we are on a more even (advantageous?) playing field now.......the UK negotiators don’t need to bend to the will of Barnier an co!

We are negotiating from a completely different stance, the last set of negotiators under May were negotiating from a 'damage control' stance which was basically approaching the negotiations from a 'we don't really want to leave, the people don't really know what they want. What can we do to overturn this.' stance. Our new negotiations are from a 'this is happening, better get onboard' stance, the latter stance is showing that we do in fact have the upper hand and always did. 

Brexit broke it's back, covid will finish the awful experiment off!

Edited May 19, 2020 by Newbie to this

[old man]

Vince is right negotiation always won by the most ruthless.

[Bobba]

I am totally confused on the topic of Fishing rights and quotas after brexit and the more I read the more confused I get !!

It seems to me that on leaving the EU the UK will not be taking back control by saying Quotas were part of CAP, we're no longer part of that regime, all quotas are cancelled and we start again with new quotas and licenses. What appears to be emerging is not a clean break let's start again,  but that existing arrangements will remain in place but massaged eg more catch by foreign vessels or leased use of UK quotas must be landed in UK ports. If this is so, then how are we taking back control of UK fishing?

Can someone help clarify my thoughts please?

I did find this article interesting but it only added to my confusion !

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

I'm no good at links so if it doesn't work, sorry. Google it.

[JohnfromUK]

19 minutes ago, Bobba said:

I am totally confused on the topic of Fishing rights

I cannot answer your question, but I do believe (and have believed for some time) that fishing is likely to be a major issue.  My reason is simply that the French fishermen have always been very militant, and quick to blockade ports, ferries etc.  It has happened many times in the past.  With Macron's present popularity - and their militant and disruptive 'Gillets Jaunes' movement, I can see BIG problems arising in France if Macron gives even a tiny bit on fishing.  I suspect that the Spanish will also veto any changes, so whatever Barnier may think himself, I think he will get his orders.

[Nuke]

39 minutes ago, old man said:

Vince is right negotiation always won by the most ruthless.

For conflicts yes, not for negotiations. In a conflict you only have one winner.

/Markus

[REDINGTON]

The levels of corruption in this country and its associates are beyond comprehension,  reptiles are blessed with more integrity.