Missing dog walker Nicola Bulley

[Mungler]

11 minutes ago, henry d said:

So why was it not wet anyway? Surely, using your reasoning, it would have been in the river no matter what she was doing.

No, not whilst under control or on a lead.

But indeed, it wasn’t wet was it? 

As hard as you want to make this, on a balance of probability I would say that it is more likely than not (51%+ probability) that a cocker spaniel being walked by it’s owner next to a river, and the owner goes in….. well I don’t see a scenario where the dog isn’t (1) wet (2) with the body. 

And that is of course my theory. The police have their theory too. But if the police are wrong, no one (including the police) is now looking anywhere other than in water. That seems odd to me too. 

.

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Mungler

[Gordon R]

Just seen a news item - Police in Morecambe Bay in an inflatable, seemingly randomly cruising around. A big area to search and I would have thought a drone would be a bit more systematic and could cover more area from above the water.

I find it all a bit a bit odd. the initial search covered several hundreds of yards downstream to a weir, which experts said a body would not traverse. There seems to have been a limited look upstream, for obvious reasons. A scanty search beyond the weir, where the river widens considerably. Next minute the search moves to the open sea, where the world's fastest tide is located. 

 

[Rim Fire]

33 minutes ago, Mungler said:

No, not whilst under control or on a lead.

But indeed, it wasn’t wet was it? 

Also found off the lead so why wasn't it wet all Spaniels go for water according to you 

[Mungler]

29 minutes ago, Rim Fire said:

Also found off the lead so why wasn't it wet all Spaniels go for water according to you 

Errrr because the dog was out for a walk and was under control, and the owner didn’t end up in the river?

I’m amazed that everyone will blindly accept what the police say and without challenge, but suggest something else and it’s up there with Martians snatching her.

 

[Bigbob]

Saw a bit on tv yesterday the experts are saying watch the husband he's showing no emotion  

If she went into the water the dog would have followed her 

the water the police are searching is 18 inches to 2 foot deep his company would of put a drone up and searched a larger area quicker 

[henry d]

58 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Errrr because the dog was out for a walk and was under control, and the owner didn’t end up in the river?

I’m amazed that everyone will blindly accept what the police say and without challenge, but suggest something else and it’s up there with Martians snatching her.

 

I'm sorry but I must be missing something, I haven't (and admit I haven't read all accounts) heard anything about her dog being under close control?

I don't accept all that is said, the water rescue experts for one, as you can't take things for granted concerning water and a rapid downstream search should have taken place at strategic points like bridges etc 

2 hours ago, Gordon R said:

Next minute the search moves to the open sea, where the world's fastest tide is located. 

Looking at maps, there are also a lot of creeks and marshy areas closer to Fleetwood where a body may wash up. 

[henry d]

OK, thinking along @Mungler lines, obedient spaniel, likely to follow owner obediently and someone tries to abduct or attack the owner, and dog is found close to bench/phone. I'd be checking the spaniels teeth and claws, because mine would have had a piece. 

Possibly something else plod hasn't thought of? 🤔 

[12gauge82]

14 minutes ago, henry d said:

OK, thinking along @Mungler lines, obedient spaniel, likely to follow owner obediently and someone tries to abduct or attack the owner, and dog is found close to bench/phone. I'd be checking the spaniels teeth and claws, because mine would have had a piece. 

Possibly something else plod hasn't thought of? 🤔 

Alot of people believe their dogs would defend them if they came under attack, the reality is most dogs have been taught their entire lives not to challenge humans, unless they've done some protection training its probably unlikely. 

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, I see the divers are looking at the estuary way ?

[Weihrauch17]

3 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

That would possibly suggest that the Police may have worked out just how far a submerged body might go in 12 days or so!

They have messed up big time not securing the scene for forensics and only having one totally unfounded theory and are doubling down on that.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Weihrauch17

[Minky]

2 hours ago, Mungler said:

I’m amazed that everyone will blindly accept what the police say and without challenge, but suggest something else and it’s up there with Martians snatching her.

 

Locally to me a young bloke decided to comit suicide.  It was thought in a local bit of forestry woodland. Plod went up there mob handed about 4 transit loads. They all amassed and had the pep talk.  5hey split into about 4 groups and did a sesrch of the woods.  eventually it was declared by a senior officer that the woods had been removed as an area of interest.  The bloke brother didn't accept this and worked out a search pattern. He walked the woods and found the body of his brother reasonably quickly.  So much for the comprehensive police search.  Usless/ not fit for purpose.

[12gauge82]

15 minutes ago, Minky said:

Locally to me a young bloke decided to comit suicide.  It was thought in a local bit of forestry woodland. Plod went up there mob handed about 4 transit loads. They all amassed and had the pep talk.  5hey split into about 4 groups and did a sesrch of the woods.  eventually it was declared by a senior officer that the woods had been removed as an area of interest.  The bloke brother didn't accept this and worked out a search pattern. He walked the woods and found the body of his brother reasonably quickly.  So much for the comprehensive police search.  Usless/ not fit for purpose.

To be fair their only human and will make mistakes like all of us. 

[Minky]

When the woman police officer stated that it was their considered opinion that she had fallen in the river and drowned.  Someone should have challenged her as to what evidence had this statement been based. ? The divers said that there was very little water flow  in the river and bodies were almost allways found within 10 mtrs of where they had gone in and in their considered opinion based on many years of searching for bodies was that she ain't in the river.  It seem as if the alien abduction or Reggie perrin theories are more considered.

9 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

To be fair their only human and will make mistakes like all of us. 

There are mistakes and then there is total  incompetence and it falls into the later.

[max151]

I personally think its a good things that people talk about this present situation  about the missing person ,the police are quite confident had fallen into the river.After all most cases investigated by them have only been resolved by the public giving them as they call it Intelligence.Im quite sure there are a lot of theories discussed here that the police would be well advised to have a look at as it is intelligence well worth noting.

[Shadowchaser]

11 hours ago, Rim Fire said:

To be honest i don't think we should be speculating on anything it has to be horrendous for the family and the last thing they need is for accusations and second guessing   from the public 

It's doubtful that the family are reading this very topic or forum.  

I also don't see a problem with discussion/speculation.  There are forums dedicated to real life mysteries such as...

The Springfield Three, The Fort Worth Missing Trio or Claudia Lawrence.  Of course those events happened years/decades ago but how long do you leave it before allowing discussion? 

I'll grant that on social media platforms things can get nasty, but if we keep things cordial then all is well. 

 

Back on topic, would the police possibly use some dummies to see if they would go over the weir? 

 

[Vince Green]

4 hours ago, Gordon R said:

Just seen a news item - Police in Morecambe Bay in an inflatable, seemingly randomly cruising around. A big area to search and I would have thought a drone would be a bit more systematic and could cover more area from above the water.

I find it all a bit a bit odd. the initial search covered several hundreds of yards downstream to a weir, which experts said a body would not traverse. There seems to have been a limited look upstream, for obvious reasons. A scanty search beyond the weir, where the river widens considerably. Next minute the search moves to the open sea, where the world's fastest tide is located. 

 

Gordon

Even if they think it's a complete waste of time they have to be seen to explore every possible option. Just so they can't be criticised later for not doing so

[Gordon R]

Vince - i agree, but it just looks like they are going through the motions and backside covering.

[ditchman]

find it very difficult to accept that the body would go over the weir as the water is so slack.....the other strange thing is the police can account for all her movements except for 10 mins'....am i correct ?....it would be very difficult for someone/anyone to abduct her back to transport unseen in the space of 10 mins.....

all these questions we are asking are the same that the family are asking 'cept more so ...must be tearing their minds apart...i do hope there is some sort of closure to this soon for them............

[Vince Green]

6 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Vince - i agree, but it just looks like they are going through the motions and backside covering.

Probably exactly right

" well, we searched as best we could but it's a very large area, "

[Penelope]

15 hours ago, Bigbob said:

Saw a bit on tv yesterday the experts are saying watch the husband he's showing no emotion  

If she went into the water the dog would have followed her 

the water the police are searching is 18 inches to 2 foot deep his company would of put a drone up and searched a larger area quicker 

I thought it had been proven that he was at home working at the time of her disappearance? Ring door bell, etc....

[Bigbob]

14 hours ago, Minky said:

Locally to me a young bloke decided to comit suicide.  It was thought in a local bit of forestry woodland. Plod went up there mob handed about 4 transit loads. They all amassed and had the pep talk.  5hey split into about 4 groups and did a sesrch of the woods.  eventually it was declared by a senior officer that the woods had been removed as an area of interest.  The bloke brother didn't accept this and worked out a search pattern. He walked the woods and found the body of his brother reasonably quickly.  So much for the comprehensive police search.  Usless/ not fit for purpose.

A police sergeants father went missing from a block of flats , they brought a police dog in said it followed his scent to a bus stop across the road , the next saturday they stopped all the traffic just wondering if you where passing last saturday and saw anything ?. turns out he was laying died in the bushes at his front door  . Embarrassment or what son was in the job and i wonder what happened to the dog . Maybe a good job this family are bringing in the experts 

[Gordon R]

You can't fault the Police personnel searching the ground and the divers, who are being directed from above. I do find the management of the incident lacking in clarity and methodology.

[Bigbob]

22 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

You can't fault the Police personnel searching the ground and the divers, who are being directed from above. I do find the management of the incident lacking in clarity and methodology.

The expert on tv in the morning seemed to disagree with nearly everything they are doing and stated time is precious there not moving fast enough 

[Rim Fire]

19 hours ago, Mungler said:

Errrr because the dog was out for a walk and was under control, and the owner didn’t end up in the river?

I’m amazed that everyone will blindly accept what the police say and without challenge, but suggest something else and it’s up there with Martians snatching her.

 

nobody is accepting anything there is no body to prove either way what has happened to this lady until it is proven it all speculation 

As for the dog it was not on a lead and was found by the river and it was not wet so not all spaniels go into the water without being directed 

and the owner didn’t end up in the river? how do you know 

[Gordon R]

The Police rather quickly surmised that she had fallen into the river - why they came to that conclusion is beyond me. The river is shallow, she didn't go into the river to retrieve the dog's ball, because there wasn't a ball to recover. She didn't go in to help the dog, which wasn't in the water  and could swim very well.

The river is running very slowly and expert opinion is that it wouldn't have travelled far if anywhere and certainly not traversed the weir. The experts say the body isn't in the river. Sally Riley has rebuked the diving expert for saying there might be third party involvement. It baffles me why she is doing that, as it seems a far more logical explanation. 

It is possible that she did end up in the river, but it goes against the known facts.