39TDS Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 54% leave 62% remain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShootingEgg Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 I spoke to a chap this morning who said he wants to leave but he thinks remain are going to win so he's voting remain Please tell me you slapped him. I have a mate who wants out but isnt going to vote... I could of punched him for such a ridiculous stance... I just told him dont moan infront of me if he doesn't like anything in the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malkiserow Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 I have yet to be convinced that, despite their camps' claims, either outcome will make a big difference in most of the key areas such as immigration and the economy BUT emotionally it will make a big difference. For the "rigged" claims, I suspect you are mostly or all leavers. I doubt there is much monkey business with the counting process in the UK. I am aware of some large companies saying to their workforce "it is up to you on the day, but we sell our products to Europe" I foresee even more grumpy old men on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportsbob Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 54% leave 62% remain +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savhmr Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 (edited) The "undecideds" will swing the result. At the moment, it's too close to call, so 50/50. (or a "landslide majority" for Remain as Cameron might call it) However, the undecideds still count for 11% of the total vote, so the true averaged poll positions are 44.5% Remain and 44.5% Leave. Given that some of the undecideds will still be undecided on the day, some of those will not vote at all, say half of them. As for the rest, historically, about three quarters of undecided voters stick to the status quo as that is a low risk option in their mind, better the devil you know sort of thing, so that will leave 4% of the original 11% undecided in favour of Remain and 1.4% for Leave. So, the prediction is about an 80% turnout, with Remain winning 51% to 49% Leave for those who bother to vote. Mind, I reckon on some who have voted "Out" in the polls will swing back to "Remain" as they get cold feet so it may even swing as large as 60/40 remain as you add that to things like the Ex-pat votes which are likely to be for Remain and it's likely that a large proportion of the young will be voting Remain, so people who perhaps didn't bother voting in the General elections. In the unlikely position that the vote is 50/50, the government will likely declare it a victory for remain as parliament is unlikely to make a change on an equal spread of votes. This leaves us with something of a quandary as any recount will more than likely swing it. This makes me pretty suspicious already about things like sabotage of postal votes by the unscrupulous (some are reputedly "lost" already) and personally, I don't agree with Ex-pats having a vote as they chose to leave the UK for warmer shores, so should put up and shut up. That's another debate for another day though. Edited June 22, 2016 by Savhmr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digger Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 bet365 have remain at 1/4 and leave at 3/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 (edited) It's going to rain all day tomorrow. The determined oldies will get their boots and brollies out and go and vote. The younger generation will be watching the Glastonbury mud bath on their puters and won't want to be going out and getting wet. I predict the weather gods are on the side of leave. You know what, there is significant mileage in this. The people who I know to be committed to vote leave would walk barefoot over broken glass to cast their vote, but all the people who I know who are voting remain do so with a shrug of their shoulders and the most enthusiasm they can muster is to say it's the best to make of a bad situation. Voter motivation will see large turnout for everyone over 40 years of age. Indeed, everyone I know who is old enough to have voted the last time around all tell me that they voted for a common market and not where we are now - they see tomorrow's vote as a crusade and righting a historic wrong that befell their generation. Yes, voter turnout by demographic will be very interesting. Edited June 22, 2016 by Mungler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitebridges Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 bet365 have remain at 1/4 and leave at 3/1. ...and some punter had £100k on to take out £40k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wymberley Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 A tad off topic, but on Friday we're going to show the world the UK status in this matter which is somewhat different to our parliamentary or council elections. Let's just say that the turnout is 75% (very high) and one way or the other the winning percentage is 55. This result therefore reflects c41% of our population's wishes. Among any legislative measures necessary to have the referendum should we not perhaps have made voting an obligation? Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandalf Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 You're right Mungler. Disabled Memsahib and I will get to the village hall if I have to carry her through the floodwaters of the village brook to get there. We will both be voting leave - Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malkiserow Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 A tad off topic, but on Friday we're going to show the world the UK status in this matter which is somewhat different to our parliamentary or council elections. Let's just say that the turnout is 75% (very high) and one way or the other the winning percentage is 55. This result therefore reflects c41% of our population's wishes. Among any legislative measures necessary to have the referendum should we not perhaps have made voting an obligation? Just a thought. Nice idea but not sure how it would work. We have a government elected on 37% of available votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wymberley Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 Nice idea but not sure how it would work. We have a government elected on 37% of available votes. I only asked because everyone seems to be on about the Australian immigration points system in which country it is mandatory to vote. Obviously, it works there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Livefast123 Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'm hoping that the Brexiteers romp home but something tells me that Cameron will stoop to new lows in order to win.....in which case we deserve everything we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panoma1 Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 I, like everyone else am unable to predict the outcome and I am unwilling to try! I do however think it is plain that whatever the result a very significant number of people in the UK (and elsewhere) want out!........that number will only grow because the EU (and the remain advocates?) are not capable of (or interested in?) improving the lot of ordinary people in the UK..........and because of this the remain camp cannot swing more people in the UK to support the EU in the future, the EU experiment has failed, the end will not be too far in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger-Mouse Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 A tad off topic, but on Friday we're going to show the world the UK status in this matter which is somewhat different to our parliamentary or council elections. Let's just say that the turnout is 75% (very high) and one way or the other the winning percentage is 55. This result therefore reflects c41% of our population's wishes. Among any legislative measures necessary to have the referendum should we not perhaps have made voting an obligation? Just a thought. It was discussed but It`s not part of our constitution and imho nor should it be. For many years I didn`t vote. Had it been compulsory, in all likelihood, all I would have done is spoiled my ballot paper. Nothing but a waste of time for me and those counting the ballot. Voting is a democratic right but I believe it`s also democratic to allow people not to vote if they have no desire to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 It was discussed but It`s not part of our constitution and imho nor should it be. For many years I didn`t vote. Had it been compulsory, in all likelihood, all I would have done is spoiled my ballot paper. Nothing but a waste of time for me and those counting the ballot. Voting is a democratic right but I believe it`s also democratic to allow people not to vote if they have no desire to. Growing up my old man always made a big thing about exercising his democratic right to vote. I suppose the war generation were more attuned to the privilege that it was. My point on this referendum is that I don't have (and will never have) the opportunity to elect / unelect those in charge of Europe. And so out it must be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger-Mouse Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 Growing up my old man always made a big thing about exercising his democratic right to vote. I suppose the war generation were more attuned to the privilege that it was. My point on this referendum is that I don't have (and will never have) the opportunity to elect / unelect those in charge of Europe. And so out it must be. I think you`re correct. However I believe that it`s usually the case that the older generation are more prone to exercising their democratic right, Part of the fault I believe, is the FPTP system we have where in many cases a vote is largely irrelevent because of strong support for a single party in an area. If we had PR it might change that because an individual vote would be more important. However that`s a discussion for another day. On your second point I totally agree. I`ve said right from the beginning that the issues of democracy and sovereignty lie at the heart of this vote as far as I`m concerned. All other factors are secondary to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wymberley Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 (edited) It was discussed but It was discussed but It`s not part of our constitution and imho nor should it be. For many years I didn`t vote. Had it been compulsory, in all likelihood, all I would have done is spoiled my ballot paper. Nothing but a waste of time for me and those counting the ballot. Voting is a democratic right but I believe it`s also democratic to allow people not to vote if they have no desire to. Do we have one? Edited June 22, 2016 by wymberley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger-Mouse Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 (edited) It was discussed but It was discussed but It`s not part of our constitution and imho nor should it be. For many years I didn`t vote. Had it been compulsory, in all likelihood, all I would have done is spoiled my ballot paper. Nothing but a waste of time for me and those counting the ballot. Voting is a democratic right but I believe it`s also democratic to allow people not to vote if they have no desire to. Do we have one? We have an unwritten constitution whereby certain rights are presumed to be natural and lawful. http://www.bl.uk/magna-carta/articles/britains-unwritten-constitution Interestingly being part of the EU is unconstitutional "There are a number of associated characteristics of Britain’s unwritten constitution, a cardinal one being that in law Parliament is sovereign in the sense of being the supreme legislative body." As we can now be over ruled by the EU that is no longer the case. Edited June 22, 2016 by Danger-Mouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muddy Funker Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 It'll be rigged to remain anyway, I'll be voting without a doubt but I've lost all interest in the debate now. Lies and spin from both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wymberley Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 I think you`re correct. However I believe that it`s usually the case that the older generation are more prone to exercising their democratic right, Part of the fault I believe, is the FPTP system we have where in many cases a vote is largely irrelevent because of strong support for a single party in an area. If we had PR it might change that because an individual vote would be more important. However that`s a discussion for another day. On your second point I totally agree. I`ve said right from the beginning that the issues of democracy and sovereignty lie at the heart of this vote as far as I`m concerned. All other factors are secondary to me. Agreed and I do admit that my final phrase was misleading - I was only referring to this one particular occasion in which each and every vote carries the same weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dekers Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 with a couple of days to go whats your prediction for the result Remain 57% Leave 43% with a 75% turnout Where did that come from, after the debate last night the suggestion was VERY CLOSE! May I please implore you all to vote, and vote OUT, forget any of this I'm not voting its fixed anyway malarkey, apathy could well be the outs undoing, cast your vote, it really isn't much to ask! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger-Mouse Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 Agreed and I do admit that my final phrase was misleading - I was only referring to this one particular occasion in which each and every vote carries the same weight. Yes I understood that you were only talking about this particular issue. However, all in all, I`d rather only those committed to their decision voted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yod dropper Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 Delighted to hear on the Today program on R4 this morning that 39% of Swedes are now anti-EU but that would rise to 59% if we left. We are truly at the centre of Europe, leading the way and shaping it's future which is for it to fall apart. Thinking in the long term and for children and grandchildren we are best off out now. The genie will not go back into the bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ditchman Posted June 22, 2016 Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 it seems strange that overnight all the polls have swung back in favour of the remain lobby....and yet it takes a week for the polls to change to show the swing in favour of the leave lobby................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts