Penelope Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just read this on an angling forum. FUTURE PREDICTIONS:In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla. Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed. Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency. Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASPwww.DrBobGoldman.comWorld Chairman-International Medical CommissionCo-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4MFounder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of FameCo-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging MedicinePresident Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WelshAndy Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Frightening, I'll be ok because I live in wales....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walker570 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 What is going to replace my old Landie then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clakk Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 In my village we got a phone box and a road out ,all mod -cons ere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyska Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 In my village we got a phone box and a road out ,all mod -cons ere We've got the same, but there's no phone in it, just dog poo bags rather than the defibrillator that was suggested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie10 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 They actually sure about this: Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sussexboy Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just to rub salt in it, it was a Kodak employee that invented the digital camera. It was a case of head in the sand management. Or maybe head somewhere else dark. I used to work for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollieollie Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I wonder who is going to wipe my £%$& Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lord_seagrave Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Frightening, I'll be ok because I live in wales....... I always wanted a Welsh name. Turns out there's an app. LS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WelshAndy Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I always wanted a Welsh name. Turns out there's an app. LS Wir yr, da rwan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 renewables make up an absolute tiny fraction of our energy needs, take way the subsidies and it wouldn't make any, this is a fact, we live on an island in the middle of the sea, solar panels are like arabs buying in sand. Southern spain cant do it, how could we. electric cars just move the pollution somewhere else, plus they are dangerously quiet, and rubbish. renewables make up an absolute tiny fraction of our energy needs, take away the subsidies and it wouldn't make any, this is a fact, we live on an island in the middle of the sea, solar panels are like arabs buying in sand. Southern spain cant do it, how could we. electric cars just move the pollution somewhere else, plus they are dangerously quiet, and rubbish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mighty Prawn Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 It's fun to read articles very similar to this about how the industrial revolution, manmade materials, computers, robots etc will take over all parts of our world and yet is hasn't happened yet - tech improves our lives and stops us having to expose ourselves to dangerous things but there is much they cannot do Interesting that in his signature where he tries to give it the big spuds, all those impressive sounding organisations that he was also the founder of! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-wheel-drive Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 The answer will be simple if computers can do everything and they do not need food do not get ill what do they need people for all it needs is a simple flu virus and there goes all of the people problem solved we are the ones that are polluting the world get rid of us we have outgrown are usefulness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Some truth in what was written but a lot of it is cobblers. AVB - CEO & founder of flat earth society. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mel b3 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 im a binman , even a robot wouldnt do half of the xxxxx that i do every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Some truth in what was written but a lot of it is cobblers. AVB - CEO & founder of flat earth society. i met an extremely religious man yesterday, he sermonised me for 30 minutes about how we are now in 'the end days' of civilisation. He was in his mid 80s and had been studying the bible for 70 years. He was a very nice man, but the way his thinking had been totally dominated by the bible was quite scary. He spoke much like the list published by the op, a total conviction, that a perfect storm is now happening, environmentally,financially,nuclear wise,greed,and mass immigration, throughout the world, and that this is gods warning coming true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WelshAndy Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 im a binman , even a robot wouldnt do half of the xxxxx that i do every day. Or on the kurbsider sorting recycling.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 What will it be like breaking clays with a gun that projects plasma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digger Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 (edited) I like the bit about jobs - hilariously vague. The guy is chairman of a company that researches anti aging medicine? Says it all. A lot of words put together doesn't mean it's likely. One for the tin foil hat brigade Edited January 11, 2017 by digger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollieollie Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Arnie will sort the computers out if they get to big for their boots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just where is all the "cheap electricity" coming from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol p Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just where is all the "cheap electricity" coming from? Same place as the cheap water in Africa. It only costs 3p a year to run a well for an entire city, apparently. And when you have paid to have it built, the women won't use it because they prefer the 42 mile walk to their original source. This gives them plenty of time to slag off the men folk of the village as they walk, apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieT Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Quite a frightening prospect. Especially as my hamlet has no mains water or gas, only got mains electricity 10 years ago, still has no mobile signal and broadband clocks at 1.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Quite a frightening prospect. Especially as my hamlet has no mains water or gas, only got mains electricity 10 years ago, still has no mobile signal and broadband clocks at 1.5. do you have a well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mel b3 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Or on the kurbsider sorting recycling.... nope , full on stinking piles of poo at the moment. roll on april then ill be back to my own job as a green waste collector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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