Smokersmith Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Working for a global business, we have to keep an eye on how Brexit will develop. This was a report I got this morning from Deutchebank ...... Brexit is the most important political event for the UK since World War II. It will shape the UK economy for generations. In this special report, we provide a comprehensive guide for investors for the months and years ahead. After Article 50 is triggered, sequencing is the key that opens all doors to Brexit. There is no time to negotiate a comprehensive deal in two years and the UK will have to abandon this strategy. The government will need to focus its negotiating power on a transitional arrangement. The UK must prevent a sudden exit from the customs union in March 2019 or risk a huge disruption to existing business models. Politics is the main risk. The UK will have to accept compromises on the budget, sovereignty and freedom of movement for a transitional deal. The political difficulties only look resolvable with an early UK general election. Politics will be equally problematic for the EU27. With populism increasingly felt across the continent, the EU must take account of the threat a successful Brexit would present of the European project. Our base case is that the UK will eventually compromise, but this will depend on a weakening economy, market pressure and a potential early general election. The UKs ability to conduct third-country free trade deals is at best a red-herring and at worst a waste of time and energy. The UKs competitive advantage is overwhelmingly concentrated in services where non-tariff barriers are a bigger constraint to trade. The UK would be alone in Europe in not pursuing some kind of trade deal with the EU, the worlds largest market. We do not see the advantages of third-country trade deals as even partially offsetting the loss of access to the Single Market. Hard Brexit is avoidable, but the inherent difficulties of negotiations will mean the market fully prices a hard Brexit outcome (no transitional agreement and WTO rules) at some stage in the next two years. This is why we remain structurally bearish on the pound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 When I went into the voting booth last year, there was no mention of hard or soft, this is an invention of the remainers who have struggled so terribly with the result, they couldn't overturn the outcome, so they tried to change and weaken the definition, but it wont wash, its either brexit or not. Even the pm who was remain understood that, which was a relief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr gen Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 we will later be listening to a broadcast from Lord Haw Haw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougy Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I just see the EU as an experiment that just didn't work. Now lets get back to work and get a bit of Great back into the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 When I went into the voting booth last year, there was no mention of hard or soft, this is an invention of the remainers who have struggled so terribly with the result, they couldn't overturn the outcome, so they tried to change and weaken the definition, but it wont wash, its either brexit or not. Even the pm who was remain understood that, which was a relief.+1.The ops cut and paste is nothing more than feet stamping and crying because we didn't vote the 'right' way, if there was another referendum today I think the result would be a vastly bigger leave vote, all the people who voted remain for fear of falling off a cliff the moment we voted leave have seen the lies, I've spoken to loads of people who said they voted remain but would have voted leave if given another vote, I haven't yet spoken to a single person who would have changed their vote to remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 (edited) I don't think Deutchebank is particularly impartial source to quote. Its like a divorce, a lot of stress at the time but life is better on the other side, once you get there lets get going Edited March 29, 2017 by Vince Green Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr gen Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I just see the EU as an experiment that just didn't work. Now lets get back to work and get a bit of Great back into the UK. +1 This country voted into the Common Market. The E.U is no such thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 +1. The ops cut and paste is nothing more than feet stamping and crying because we didn't vote the 'right' way, if there was another referendum today I think the result would be a vastly bigger leave vote, all the people who voted remain for fear of falling off a cliff the moment we voted leave have seen the lies, I've spoken to loads of people who said they voted remain but would have voted leave if given another vote, I haven't yet spoken to a single person who would have changed their vote to remain. Thanks for concurring with me, its nice sometimes when people agree with reality. When this brexit is history, and the dust has settled, the same people will still be knocking it, it wouldn't matter to them that it became a resounding success, the fact would remain that someone disagreed with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I just see the EU as an experiment that just didn't work. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I actually think that if there was another vote today the majority vote would be to remain, save that everyone over 60 would still be hitting the leave button hard. Because nothing has happened yet (that fun will only start properly in the years to come) people have been lulled into a false sense of security or empowerment. Long term I think we will be better out of Europe but if the exit isn't done properly we could see ourselves locked on the outside of Europe short to medium term. In particular the financial services sector and London will suffer (being on the outside of a game where being on the inside is everything) and whilst everyone from up North will be shouting 'who cares' it is of course London that contributes to 30% of the whole pot and more than twice of anything from up North http://www.citymetric.com/politics/london-still-generates-more-twice-tax-revenue-entire-northern-powerhouse-region-1235 Short to medium term we're all going to be worse off. Like I said, I think 'out' is the right call but I'm in no rush and there's no point rushing it and ******* it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 johnny rotten seems to like it, and trump and farage, he is the first celebrity I have heard that has openly spoken in favour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 johnny rotten seems to like it, and trump and farage, he is the first celebrity I have heard that has openly spoken in favour. Well, that settles it then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Short to medium term we're all going to be worse off.Lets be in no doubt that the EU will do everything it can to make things as difficult as possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Well, that settles it then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Lets be in no doubt that the EU will do everything it can to make things as difficult as possible Yep, tack on a government that is still implementing austerity measures following 2008 and a recent pound / euro realignment and it's all going to get very expensive very quickly. We need another Maggie and with a proper plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walshie Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 There are uncertain times ahead for sure but surely uncertainty with a probably happy ending has to be better than what we had as part of the great german superstate? We've had 9 months of the remoaners bleating like children. Once article 50 is triggered are we going to have another 2 years of it? Sick of listening to the bad losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungler Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I was hoping for something to wobble / give inside Europe; Greece properly falling off the perch, the big German bank rumoured to be balance sheet insolent going pop or the Frogs voting in the National Front (having had enough of no borders and no real immigration controls). None of that has happened (yet) and the UKs signalled departure appears to have galvanised those countries remaining in the EU and yes, that is rather irritating Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12gauge82 Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 As the Brexit negotiations go on I think the cracks will start to appear in the EU, member states will start to argue to secure what each individual state wants to achieve and I think you will see a less United front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walker570 Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Nine months too late. Should have been done immediately after the vote. Less time for these 'spoilers' like Branson trying to put a spoke in the works. How anyone can look at the European Parliament and Commission and say it is value for money, I don't know. Everything they touch goes rotten. I read an article where a Hard Brexit is the way to go and agreed wholeheartedly. If our politicians just give in the slightest way the unelected in Brussels will screw us. I honestly do not see 'austerity' either. I am a pensioner, not wealthy, but I organise my life and spending accordingly and enjoy life to the full. We are on the way to a better life, believe me and the EU is slowly disintegrating as some of us predicted ten years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandringstar Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 If it does happen today, it really is a massive day, its all quite low key at the moment, however someone in our village has been adourning roundabouts and public areas with little blue starry flags, it happens overnight and has been increasing in the run up to today. They actually look quite pretty I think it may be one of the farmers, he had a huge EU flag up last summer, I don't mind, never really been a flag type myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just watch how many other countries vote to leave in the next ten years. The whole concept changed from a growing trading group in to an unelected dictatorship enforcing the will of a few upon most of europe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLuke Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I actually think that if there was another vote today the majority vote would be to remain, save that everyone over 60 would still be hitting the leave button hard. Because nothing has happened yet (that fun will only start properly in the years to come) people have been lulled into a false sense of security or empowerment. Long term I think we will be better out of Europe but if the exit isn't done properly we could see ourselves locked on the outside of Europe short to medium term. In particular the financial services sector and London will suffer (being on the outside of a game where being on the inside is everything) and whilst everyone from up North will be shouting 'who cares' it is of course London that contributes to 30% of the whole pot and more than twice of anything from up North http://www.citymetric.com/politics/london-still-generates-more-twice-tax-revenue-entire-northern-powerhouse-region-1235 Short to medium term we're all going to be worse off. Like I said, I think 'out' is the right call but I'm in no rush and there's no point rushing it and ******* it up. I'm with you on all of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadeye18 Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I was hoping for something to wobble / give inside Europe; Greece properly falling off the perch, the big German bank rumoured to be balance sheet insolent going pop or the Frogs voting in the National Front (having had enough of no borders and no real immigration controls). None of that has happened (yet) and the UKs signalled departure appears to have galvanised those countries remaining in the EU and yes, that is rather irritating I was hoping for those things too but there's still time for something to go wrong.From what ive seen Paris is a warzone of migrant riots so the national front will be around to upset the establishment for a long time to come.Greece and Italy are also going to be liability for a long time to come.Fingers crossed eh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldypigeonpopper Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Lets be in no doubt that the EU will do everything it can to make things as difficult as possible hello, maybe those EU countries who have been bailed out might want some more money but the hard fact is most of these EU countries need us just as much as we need them but we should not have all these regulations and red tape decided by Brussels, in 2 years time we should be open for business to all countries with out any restrictions, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Green Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Europe can't go any other way except fail. Its inevitable and the further we are distanced from it financial when it does the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.