Brexit - merged threads

[12gauge82]

9 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Do you really mean rigged, that implies corruption to me? But I wholeheartedly agree they didn't think it all through adequately and just assumed leave was never going to happen.

It's impossible to know but you may well be right about just how damaging it has been to us both in domestic and global terms - my colleagues in France; consisting of Brits, French and Italian - are all bemused as to why we chose to leave. I was in the US a few weeks back and I know that former colleagues would have openly laughed in my face if it wasn't for the fact they have Trump as president.

One of the things that frustrates me most is the structure of the referendum, if it had been structured as a first vote on leave or remain with further votes to refine the details then I would almost certainly have voted leave in the first round. I can't be alone in this thinking and a vote structured this way would have almost certainly returned a much higher leave majority which would have stood a better chance of making the EU sit up and listen - a real lost opportunity it seems.

If we may come back to polls for a moment, I'm starting to wonder what useful purpose they serve in democracy, it seems to me like they provide a mechanism to assist in altering the outcome of the vote, either through tactical or protest votes. Perhaps it would be better if polls were actually banned and so nobody was influenced either directly or indirectly based on what the latest polls are saying - I'm kinda thinking out loud here but yeah why not, what's the downside?

No I don't think they actually literally rigged it, but they did their best, the lies and scare mongering, the leaflet which cost more than the entire campaign budget should have allowed, the perverse thing is, I think it back fired on them, the public smelt a rat and some probably voted leave because they could sense the government were telling lies. 

You raise some good points above, but going back to how we're going to get out of this mess, I can only see one option, a wto brexit would deliver on the leave vote and would most likely cause some level of economic damage, the level depends on who you listen to. I fear the EU won't give us a free trade deal due to the ineptitude of Mays negotiations coupled with a parliament that is trying to stop us leaving.

Not leaving, Mays deal, or another form of Brino will not deliver on the referendum result and I personally believe the long term damage from that will damage our country worse than even the worst prediction of a hard brexit. Just how they're going to square the circle is beyond me. 

[oowee]

9 hours ago, figgy said:

All this so called damage I think is ********.

It will all settle down and we can all just get on with our lives.

We should never have been dragged into European common trade. We were doing well on our own.

The pound was strong we had manufacturing, then we handed over power to countries that don't have our best interests at heart. 

If there was another vote I'd vote leave again but there shouldn't be another vote. We had one and it should stand. The government has had years to sort out a deal or not. I wish Europe would say off you pop.

I think it will all settle down economicaly at a level a few % points below where we are now and most people will not notice so much difference, at first. Then gradualy over time we will see a slow economic contraction almost indiscernable as we start to respond to global competition. The gap between rich and poor will accelerate as we get leaner and fitter. What will happen to the Union through the change is anyones guess.

For me the big difference will be the interaction and beaurocratic controls that will hinder the ease with which we currently play with europe. Particularly with access to the European R&D budgets, which our academics will want to access and where we want european partners to play a full part here. Uk government will hopefully compensate this side of the channel with budget increases but it's the linkage and co operation policy that will be the test.

We will need some sort of visa free work arrangements, for specialist labour groups. In R&D and finance, IT and specialist manufacture.  We will have to have free labour movement accross borders, including housing and schooling or we will simply loose the business and tax. 

With travel, and resettlement I just hope we can find some new arrangemeent that allows us to settle in other countries within the EU, at will pretty much like now. Not sure how that happens but I hope it's quick as I for one will want to live accross borders. 

 

[Raja Clavata]

54 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

No I don't think they actually literally rigged it, but they did their best, the lies and scare mongering, the leaflet which cost more than the entire campaign budget should have allowed, the perverse thing is, I think it back fired on them, the public smelt a rat and some probably voted leave because they could sense the government were telling lies. 

You raise some good points above, but going back to how we're going to get out of this mess, I can only see one option, a wto brexit would deliver on the leave vote and would most likely cause some level of economic damage, the level depends on who you listen to. I fear the EU won't give us a free trade deal due to the ineptitude of Mays negotiations coupled with a parliament that is trying to stop us leaving.

Not leaving, Mays deal, or another form of Brino will not deliver on the referendum result and I personally believe the long term damage from that will damage our country worse than even the worst prediction of a hard brexit. Just how they're going to square the circle is beyond me. 

It might be because we are coming at this from opposite sides but I really can't see WTO exit happening except by accident. Is any other kind of Brexit which would be acceptable to you?

[figgy]

Ownee I hope we have no free travel or migrant workers like we have now or free settlement anywhere in Europe. It's one of the main reasons lots voted leave.

I want our country to decide who and what workers come here along with if you want to migrate here what are your finances and prospects ohh you want our benefits , no go away.

Edited April 6, 2019 by figgy

[Rewulf]

10 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Do you really mean rigged, that implies corruption to me? But I wholeheartedly agree they didn't think it all through adequately and just assumed leave was never going to happen.

Who are 'they' ?
This is the interesting bit , do you mean Cameron, his cabinet, the conservatives, all MPs ?
Were they all so out of touch, so blind to see the mood of the country ?
Or do you believe we all got swayed at the last minute by the 'far' right ?
The problem with your assertation is this - If they knew leave would win, would they have even held the referendum ? And, if they didnt for that very reason, what does that say about democracy in this country ?

If Im not being clear, Ill try and do it a different way.
'They' knew that a huge proportion of the electorate were unhappy, they could see UKIP gaining momentum, and the conservatives were bleeding voters to them and other anti EU/immigration groups.
The 2015 election was going to be bad, so put in the manifesto that there would be a vote on membership, it kept elements in the party happy, and it kept the Eurosceptics happy.

Table: 2015 general election results summary

Party	Seats	Gain	Loss	Net	Votes	%	±%
Conservative	331	35	11	+24	11,334,920	36.9	+0.8
Labour	232	22	48	–26	9,347,326	30.4	+1.5
Scottish National	56	50	0	+50	1,454,436	4.7	+3.1
Liberal Democrat	8	0	49	–49	2,415,888	7.9	–15.2
Democratic Unionist	8	1	1	0	184,260	0.6	0.0
Sinn Féin	4	0	1	–1	176,232	0.6	0.0
Plaid Cymru	3	0	0	0	181,694	0.6	0.0
SDLP	3	0	0	0	99,809	0.3	0.0
Ulster Unionist	2	2	0	+2	114,935	0.4	0.0
UKIP	1	1	0	+1	3,881,129	12.6	+9.5
Green	1	0	0	0	1,157,613	3.8	+2.8
Others	1	0	0	0	164,826	0.5	–0.3

 

Even then , UkIP made massive gains, just no seats, can you imagine what could have happened if they hadnt promised a Ref ?

So, now back in power, (with a healthy majority) and seeing what happened to the Libs for breaking manifesto pledges, the Cons had to have that Ref.

So can we still say that there wasnt a appetite to leave, was remain a certainty ?
More importantly, was it 'thought through adequately' ? 

So, how do 'they' thin the leave numbers down, and make sure 'they' get what they want, and remain.
This is the important bit, its a 'free' vote right , a 'chance in a generation' to have your say ?
A moment where power is handed back to the people ( Some might say it never left, but hey ho)
But its not is it, the lies and half truths of project fear came thick and fast ...but  didnt work, the people ignored the possibility of apocalypse and still voted out.
The governments sure fire plan to force remain came to nothing, because guess what ?

THE PEOPLE DIDNT WANT TO.

Fast forward now.

Delay - - A completely unnecessary GE where that nice majority goes up in smoke --Gina Miller --Florence and the transition period delay --Chequers and the Peoples vote rising-- To where we are today, absolutely nowhere, no other deals being looked at and with half the house calling for the whole thing to be scrapped.
And you say corruption is a strong way of describing it ?!

'They' wanted to remain, and by hook or crook, they are ignoring the vote we had, and doing what they want.
I think they thought it through perfectly for what THEY wanted, it might not be going perfectly to plan for them, but like you say Parliament is sovereign, so they can do pretty much whatever the hell they like.
Or can they ? Not without repercussions methinks.

 

[12gauge82]

42 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

It might be because we are coming at this from opposite sides but I really can't see WTO exit happening except by accident. Is any other kind of Brexit which would be acceptable to you?

Oh I fully agree, I don't think a wto brexit will happen either and at least while May is in charge, the EU is never going to give us a free trade deal. I can't see any other deal that will honour the referendum result, we really are in a catch 22. 

[Rewulf]

43 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Is any other kind of Brexit which would be acceptable to you?

I would accept the unconditional surrender of the EU ,and subsequent incarceration of Junker and Verhofstadt , for starters.
We could replace it with a trade organisation based in London, that deals with trade ONLY, as it was supposed to be .
How does that sound ?

[oowee]

42 minutes ago, figgy said:

Ownee I hope we have no free travel or migrant workers like we have now or free settlement anywhere in Europe. It's one of the main reasons lots voted leave.

I want our country to decide who and what workers come here along with if you want to migrate here what are your finances and prospects ohh you want our benefits , no go away.

I am withyou on the control but..... There are lots of high revenue companies that move workers backwards and forwards at will. We need this to continue. The reverse is they move entities. I am watching one as we speak being set up in Spain from the UK for this reason. Aided by the Spanish skill repatriation fund no doubt. 

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

I would accept the unconditional surrender of the EU ,and subsequent incarceration of Junker and Verhofstadt , for starters.
We could replace it with a trade organisation based in London, that deals with trade ONLY, as it was supposed to be .
How does that sound ?

I am all for setting up an alternative. 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

I am all for setting up an alternative. 

They need to lose the political element of the EU , its not needed, some laws yes, but only to do with trade, the Euro is a disaster.
50,000 employees ??
£6 billion a year in admin ?
Division on a scale not seen since the 1930 s ?
 

Wipe the slate clean, and start again, call it the common market or something ?

[oowee]

1 minute ago, Rewulf said:

They need to lose the political element of the EU , its not needed, some laws yes, but only to do with trade, the Euro is a disaster.
50,000 employees ??
£6 billion a year in admin ?
Division on a scale not seen since the 1930 s ?
 

Wipe the slate clean, and start again, call it the common market or something ?

Sounds good to me but you do need to have legal controls, and some quality civil servants to run the thing 

[Rewulf]

Just now, oowee said:

Sounds good to me but you do need to have legal controls, and some quality civil servants to run the thing 

Youre too OLD now 🤣

OK the jobs yours , see Mr Farage and he'll get you a desk 😄

Controls on trade are fine, some standards and legal framework, what we have now is bloated out of any proportion, any imagining of what it was supposed to be .
Its been a generational thing , the way its progressed, now people think its perfectly normal to have 2 sets of government, one in London , and the 'superior' one in Brussels.
Its not normal.

[Raja Clavata]

12 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Who are 'they' ?
This is the interesting bit , do you mean Cameron, his cabinet, the conservatives, all MPs ?
Were they all so out of touch, so blind to see the mood of the country ?
Or do you believe we all got swayed at the last minute by the 'far' right ?
The problem with your assertation is this - If they knew leave would win, would they have even held the referendum ? And, if they didnt for that very reason, what does that say about democracy in this country ?

If Im not being clear, Ill try and do it a different way.
'They' knew that a huge proportion of the electorate were unhappy, they could see UKIP gaining momentum, and the conservatives were bleeding voters to them and other anti EU/immigration groups.
The 2015 election was going to be bad, so put in the manifesto that there would be a vote on membership, it kept elements in the party happy, and it kept the Eurosceptics happy.

Table: 2015 general election results summary

Party	Seats	Gain	Loss	Net	Votes	%	±%
Conservative	331	35	11	+24	11,334,920	36.9	+0.8
Labour	232	22	48	–26	9,347,326	30.4	+1.5
Scottish National	56	50	0	+50	1,454,436	4.7	+3.1
Liberal Democrat	8	0	49	–49	2,415,888	7.9	–15.2
Democratic Unionist	8	1	1	0	184,260	0.6	0.0
Sinn Féin	4	0	1	–1	176,232	0.6	0.0
Plaid Cymru	3	0	0	0	181,694	0.6	0.0
SDLP	3	0	0	0	99,809	0.3	0.0
Ulster Unionist	2	2	0	+2	114,935	0.4	0.0
UKIP	1	1	0	+1	3,881,129	12.6	+9.5
Green	1	0	0	0	1,157,613	3.8	+2.8
Others	1	0	0	0	164,826	0.5	–0.3

 

Even then , UkIP made massive gains, just no seats, can you imagine what could have happened if they hadnt promised a Ref ?

So, now back in power, (with a healthy majority) and seeing what happened to the Libs for breaking manifesto pledges, the Cons had to have that Ref.

So can we still say that there wasnt a appetite to leave, was remain a certainty ?
More importantly, was it 'thought through adequately' ? 

So, how do 'they' thin the leave numbers down, and make sure 'they' get what they want, and remain.
This is the important bit, its a 'free' vote right , a 'chance in a generation' to have your say ?
A moment where power is handed back to the people ( Some might say it never left, but hey ho)
But its not is it, the lies and half truths of project fear came thick and fast ...but  didnt work, the people ignored the possibility of apocalypse and still voted out.
The governments sure fire plan to force remain came to nothing, because guess what ?

THE PEOPLE DIDNT WANT TO.

Fast forward now.

Delay - - A completely unnecessary GE where that nice majority goes up in smoke --Gina Miller --Florence and the transition period delay --Chequers and the Peoples vote rising-- To where we are today, absolutely nowhere, no other deals being looked at and with half the house calling for the whole thing to be scrapped.
And you say corruption is a strong way of describing it ?!

'They' wanted to remain, and by hook or crook, they are ignoring the vote we had, and doing what they want.
I think they thought it through perfectly for what THEY wanted, it might not be going perfectly to plan for them, but like you say Parliament is sovereign, so they can do pretty much whatever the hell they like.
Or can they ? Not without repercussions methinks.

 

By they I meant the government. They were negligent in that they did not give leave enough credibility so did not structure the vote or series of votes in the way they would have done if they had thought it through properly. They were fixated on internal party politics and trying to screw Corbyn and UKIP in the process. The first in chain of bad moves that led to the disaster we are in now - a bit like the chain of events that normally lead to an air crash.

No, I don't believe they would have held the referendum in the form it was presented if they thought leave was going to win, or even stood a credible chance of winning, it would have been either not put forward or structured very differently (a point I think I've made a few times already).

I don't think the far right swayed anything, the far right element of UKIP seems to have emerged afterwards and in the absence of Farage.

I think it is possible that the polls affected the outcome, if the polls show remain is gonna romp home then it's reasonable to assume some remain voters might not make it to the polling station and conversely it will encourage leavers to make sure they do get their vote in? I'm not suggesting it changed the outcome but merely that it's one of the variables at play along with tactical and protest voting etc.

Both sides were playing games and trying to mislead people, Dominic Cummings even spoke openly about Leaves approach - both sides lied and cheated. Who cheated and lied best probably depends on which side of the debate you sit. But to qualify my comment on corruption was in respect to the referendum itself not what has ensued since.

Sorry I'm on a fallow buck cull today, hence my short reply, so if i've overlooked a key point it's not deliberate and will followup later...

[wymberley]

Well, there's some good news amongst all the doom and gloom. With effect from the end of March our passports will carry no mention of the European Union with the exception of the usage of old stock. Better still, at the end of the year we'll have our dark blue version back - which some older folk might remember - I wonder if we will be able to exchange our current version for those even if it hasn't expired.

[Raja Clavata]

33 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Oh I fully agree, I don't think a wto brexit will happen either and at least while May is in charge, the EU is never going to give us a free trade deal. I can't see any other deal that will honour the referendum result, we really are in a catch 22. 

Agreed, fast approaching a state of hopelessness.

32 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I would accept the unconditional surrender of the EU ,and subsequent incarceration of Junker and Verhofstadt , for starters.
We could replace it with a trade organisation based in London, that deals with trade ONLY, as it was supposed to be .
How does that sound ?

Interesting line of thought.

[Rewulf]

2 minutes ago, wymberley said:

Well, there's some good news amongst all the doom and gloom. With effect from the end of March our passports will carry no mention of the European Union with the exception of the usage of old stock. Better still, at the end of the year we'll have our dark blue version back - which some older folk might remember - I wonder if we will be able to exchange our current version for those even if it hasn't expired.

Got daughters back on wednesday , still got EU , I may sue 🤣

 

7 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

By they I meant the government. They were negligent in that they did not give leave enough credibility so did not structure the vote or series of votes in the way they would have done if they had thought it through properly. They were fixated on internal party politics and trying to screw Corbyn and UKIP in the process. The first in chain of bad moves that led to the disaster we are in now - a bit like the chain of events that normally lead to an air crash.

Why would they if they though remain was in the bag?
You are thinking about it on the lines of a free and fair referendum, and the result being honoured.
It wasnt, and it isnt, that is plain to see.

 

9 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

No, I don't believe they would have held the referendum in the form it was presented if they thought leave was going to win, or even stood a credible chance of winning

Which supports what I said ?

 

10 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I think it is possible that the polls affected the outcome, if the polls show remain is gonna romp home then it's reasonable to assume some remain voters might not make it to the polling station and conversely it will encourage leavers to make sure they do get their vote in? I'm not suggesting it changed the outcome but merely that it's one of the variables at play along with tactical and protest voting etc.

Maybe, maybe remain used the polls for sheep mentality voting.?

Doesnt matter , that bit is done.

11 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I don't think the far right swayed anything, the far right element of UKIP seems to have emerged afterwards and in the absence of Farage.

Personally, I think a lot of UKIPs original base was old BNP type voters, they are either gone or gone moderate, if you think Tommy Robinson getting a seat with them makes the whole thing 'far' right , I think if anything thats cost them support.

 

14 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Both sides were playing games and trying to mislead people, Dominic Cummings even spoke openly about Leaves approach - both sides lied and cheated.

Standard procedure, you dont bring a knife to a gun fight.
 

[toxo]

After the referendum everything was going swimmingly. All these remoaner MPs were getting used to the idea of leaving because that was the democratic result. They even ran on a leave mandate in a GE. Then they voted to trigger article 50 knowing full well (or was it they who didn't understand what they were signing up to?) that the ONLY legal rule was that we leave on the 29th March 2019. Then something strange happened. I don't hold on to details but some remoaners found that if they acted in a completely un-British way they could find a chink in the armour of democracy. When this started and there were no substantial repercussions, more and more of the turncoats jumped on the bandwagon and THAT'S the reason we are in this mess today.

Whatever happens, don't waste your vote. We must show these people who think they're untouchable that there are going to be consequences. Voting for anything other than the two main parties is the way to hurt them and send a message to future self servers.

[oowee]

1 hour ago, wymberley said:

Well, there's some good news amongst all the doom and gloom. With effect from the end of March our passports will carry no mention of the European Union with the exception of the usage of old stock. Better still, at the end of the year we'll have our dark blue version back - which some older folk might remember - I wonder if we will be able to exchange our current version for those even if it hasn't expired.

I think they still have some old stoock to use up. I was lucky and just got mine back so will be able to hold my head high in Europe. If you order one make sure you get extra pages for all of the stamps you might need. 

If I was the Home Office I would not be ordering blue covers just yet. 

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

I think they still have some old stoock to use up. I was lucky and just got mine back so will be able to hold my head high in Europe. If you order one make sure you get extra pages for all of the stamps you might need. 

If I was the Home Office I would not be ordering blue covers just yet. 

How very patriotic 🙄

[walshie]

1 hour ago, wymberley said:

Well, there's some good news amongst all the doom and gloom. With effect from the end of March our passports will carry no mention of the European Union with the exception of the usage of old stock. Better still, at the end of the year we'll have our dark blue version back - which some older folk might remember - I wonder if we will be able to exchange our current version for those even if it hasn't expired.

You'll have to pay for a new one. Annoyingly mine runs out in October, so looks like i'll be getting a maroon one but at least it won't have federation of would-be world domination on it. Then I'll change it again when the blue ones come out.  Rule Britannia!

[Jaymo]

3 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Youre too OLD now 🤣

OK the jobs yours , see Mr Farage and he'll get you a desk 😄

 

That’s right, I heard he was working in the storage depot after his MEP career stalled 🙂

[oowee]

3 hours ago, walshie said:

You'll have to pay for a new one. Annoyingly mine runs out in October, so looks like i'll be getting a maroon one but at least it won't have federation of would-be world domination on it. Then I'll change it again when the blue ones come out.  Rule Britannia!

Cheaper option and if you have to you could probably get the 'and NI' lifted with Sellotape if its not needed 😋

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Leather-Travel-Passport-Holder-Protector/dp/B005DQBR94?psc=1&SubscriptionId=AKIAILSHYYTFIVPWUY6Q&tag=duc08-21&linkCode=xm2&camp=2025&creative=165953&creativeASIN=B005DQBR94

[walshie]

54 minutes ago, oowee said:

Cheaper option and if you have to you could probably get the 'and NI' lifted with Sellotape if its not needed 😋

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Leather-Travel-Passport-Holder-Protector/dp/B005DQBR94?psc=1&SubscriptionId=AKIAILSHYYTFIVPWUY6Q&tag=duc08-21&linkCode=xm2&camp=2025&creative=165953&creativeASIN=B005DQBR94

Don't have a problem with N.I. It's the rest of the European freeloaders I have an issue with. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by walshie

[ShootingEgg]

8 hours ago, oowee said:

I think they still have some old stoock to use up. I was lucky and just got mine back so will be able to hold my head high in Europe. If you order one make sure you get extra pages for all of the stamps you might need. 

If I was the Home Office I would not be ordering blue covers just yet. 

Why are you so lovey dovey with a non democratic pile of ****!? 

The EU is a corrupt group of ********* who spend money on themselves and champagne, multiple homes and expenses.. We are not in a free trade agreement, we pay billions to get not alot back from them feeding from theor troughs. 

[oowee]

4 hours ago, walshie said:

Don't have a problem with N.I. It's the rest of the European freeloaders I have an issue with. 

 Noooo I was thinking if NI left the UK lol. 

 

[Raja Clavata]

21 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Why would they if they though remain was in the bag?
You are thinking about it on the lines of a free and fair referendum, and the result being honoured.
It wasnt, and it isnt, that is plain to see.

I think the referendum and what followed afterwards needs to be separated. The structure of the referendum was negligent but I think it was free and fair, more or less.

The structure of the referendum has led to the downstream issues. The EU were never going to freely offer up a good deal and no deal was never really an option even if that’s what the majority of the people who voted leave intended. So a binary leave or stay vote put whoever was responsible for executing the result caught between a rock and hard place.

The reason TM has been so hell bent on her deal is because it boils down to either a deal being agreed or Brexit not happening. No Brexit or a long delay to Brexit is political suicide for the Tories. I don’t like Labour but the Conservatives are reaping what they sowed.

Which supports what I said ?

If you agree with the above then I think it supports what we both said. 

Personally, I think a lot of UKIPs original base was old BNP type voters, they are either gone or gone moderate, if you think Tommy Robinson getting a seat with them makes the whole thing 'far' right , I think if anything thats cost them support.

I dunno, I saw lots of support for him on social media. BTW if he cares so much about this country and society why doesn’t he wade in and try to fix the knife crime issue.