oowee Posted March 31, 2020 Report Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Retsdon said: China's figures are the best ones to look at because a) they did a lot of testing, and b) 96% of their cases have now resolved. And the overall death rate there has been 4%. What seems to be about right is that for 80% of people the disease is going to be like a bad flu at worst. For 20%, it'll be a very nasty experience that might well require hospital treatment. And of those who go into hospital about 18+% won't be coming out. For those who say this just a flu, I have a scenario. I hand you a 5 shot revolver and tell you that one chamber has a round in it. Will it kill you? Hmmm, probably not - but if you spin the chamber and it lands on the round you'll almost certainly be going to hospital. And once there you'll have about an 18% chance of dying. Failing that you'll just be very sick for several weeks. I have a question. How much money would you need on the table to pick up the revolver and play Russian roulette? I can't see how we can rely on the China figures. First the virus was dismissed. The population density is far higher than the west so spread would be faster and sanitry conditions are generaly lower so again aiding the spread. Their clampdown certainly looks to be far tighter than the west but I just would not trust the government there to be saying it like it is. Add to which the testing process is far from accurate. There is a lot of skill involved and few with the skills to be abe to do it accurately. The number exposed and not tested will also be significant. Just 3300 dead sounds improbable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figgy Posted March 31, 2020 Report Share Posted March 31, 2020 I wouldn't believe any figures that China put out. Lots of people have been coming out stating that Chinese government are lying about the official figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retsdon Posted March 31, 2020 Report Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, oowee said: I can't see how we can rely on the China figures. First the virus was dismissed. The population density is far higher than the west so spread would be faster and sanitry conditions are generaly lower so again aiding the spread. Their clampdown certainly looks to be far tighter than the west but I just would not trust the government there to be saying it like it is. Add to which the testing process is far from accurate. There is a lot of skill involved and few with the skills to be abe to do it accurately. The number exposed and not tested will also be significant. Just 3300 dead sounds improbable. I feel people are too dismissive of China. Technically they're very good. Yes, at a local level the virus was downplayed initially. But once the alarm reached national level they acted very, very fast indeed. As to how efficient the testing was- who's to say that the Chinese were any worse than anyone else. What I would say is that their numbers have - to date anyway - pretty much been mirrored by other countries that have faced or are facing a widespread outbreak. The reason I cite China is because their cases are resolved. Of course, Italy, Spain, France, Iran, and the UK might come in with a different mortality rate to China's 4%. But to date that's not looking likely. Everyone's numbers (infections v deaths) seem to be fairly consistent with China's at the same stage of the epidemic. But who knows? Anyway, I think my main point - that it's probably not a virus you want to become host to - still stands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retsdon Posted March 31, 2020 Report Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, figgy said: Lots of people have been coming out stating that Chinese government are lying about the official figures. But the thing is - people have been saying that about China from the beginning. But the reason for them lying has apparently changed. For the first month or so when the virus was only in China the Chinese were said to be lying to downplay the number of dead and infected. People were dying in droves in their apartments, etc, etc, and the government was covering it up. Now that the virus is global, the Chinese were apparently not doing that at all - rather they were exaggerating the virulence of the virus. Well, it's either one or the other. If it's the first - we're all in for a very bad time indeed. If it's the second, the world is pointlessly pouring money down the drain trying to curb the spread. Which is it? My own opinion, for what it's worth, is that the Chinese numbers were/are probably as good as anyone else's. Which is not to say they're accurate....but no less accurate. Anyway, we'll see.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figgy Posted March 31, 2020 Report Share Posted March 31, 2020 When we look at the numbers in other countries, I think China were telling find. I saw a video where bodies were lying allover the place, one was laying on some steps dead outside a building. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry d Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 Interesting stuff on the news this morning. First was an Italian, I didn't get to see who he was but suspect he was a doctor/politician/journalist, he stated that the spread was fast in the hospital's due to insufficient and the wrong type of face masks. This would contribute to faster spread and higher viral load and therefore more deaths. Secondly was an MP being grilled about how many sets of the CORRECT PPE were being sourced. Hopefully we have learned from other countries mistakes and will get it right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldypigeonpopper Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, figgy said: I wouldn't believe any figures that China put out. Lots of people have been coming out stating that Chinese government are lying about the official figures. hello, the Chinese Government will never give out official anything, some Russian is even blaming the USA for the Corvid 19 outbreak !!!!! Edited April 1, 2020 by oldypigeonpopper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medic1281 Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, henry d said: Interesting stuff on the news this morning. First was an Italian, I didn't get to see who he was but suspect he was a doctor/politician/journalist, he stated that the spread was fast in the hospital's due to insufficient and the wrong type of face masks. This would contribute to faster spread and higher viral load and therefore more deaths. Secondly was an MP being grilled about how many sets of the CORRECT PPE were being sourced. Hopefully we have learned from other countries mistakes and will get it right. I don’t think we have. Our guidelines for Ppe differ to those recommended by WHO. The cynic in me thinks this is because we haven’t got Enough of the higher lever ppe for all staff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnphilip Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Medic1281 said: I don’t think we have. Our guidelines for Ppe differ to those recommended by WHO. The cynic in me thinks this is because we haven’t got Enough of the higher lever ppe for all staff. Please stay safe , we have lots of respect for you all . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norfolk dumpling Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 Folk look at Worldometer - you will see in live time population changes ie at this precise point in time: Births today 152,883 Deaths today 64,221 Net population growth this year 20,342,556 C-19 only a pimple on the backside of our little planet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old man Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Medic1281 said: I don’t think we have. Our guidelines for Ppe differ to those recommended by WHO. The cynic in me thinks this is because we haven’t got Enough of the higher lever ppe for all staff. Almost certainly correct. I applaud you, all of your colleagues and everyone helping with logistics etc. Thank You! For all non believers hell bent on self destructing, I would add, go ahead but just give the rest of us chance to avoid going under the bus with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbird Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, norfolk dumpling said: Folk look at Worldometer - you will see in live time population changes ie at this precise point in time: Births today 152,883 Deaths today 64,221 Net population growth this year 20,342,556 C-19 only a pimple on the backside of our little planet. Wait till 12 months time then look at the jump in net population after our little world has been in lockdown. Edited April 1, 2020 by blackbird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cranfield Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) Like many past worldwide tragedies, we probably won't know the full facts until after its ended. This is a very respected source of information, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Edited April 1, 2020 by Cranfield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Medic1281 said: I don’t think we have. Our guidelines for Ppe differ to those recommended by WHO. The cynic in me thinks this is because we haven’t got Enough of the higher lever ppe for all staff. That’s not what the Deputy CMO said yesterday in the daily briefing. She said our use of PPE was in line with global ‘standards’ and iirc said that it had been commended by the WHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Neal Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 Reported deaths per million population: Italy 218 China 2 Hmmmmmm..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Elvis Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) Quote Secondly was an MP being grilled about how many sets of the CORRECT PPE were being sourced. Hopefully we have learned from other countries mistakes and will get it right. Not even close!!! its brutal out there and they are still issuing the wrong type of masks 😞 Im not going to state which hospital I was working in yesterday but so many patients were on hi flow oxygen that they were at risk of running out and NO thats not an april fools joke just simply a joke Edited April 2, 2020 by Evil Elvis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oowee Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Evil Elvis said: Not even close!!! its brutal out there and they are still issuing the wrong type of masks 😞 Im not going to state which hospital I was working in yesterday but so many patients were on hi flow oxygen that they were at risk of running out and NO thats not an april fools joke just simply a joke New directives on ppe witheld as the ppe is not available for issue if the directive is given. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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