Thoughts on a Second Wave! Then a Second Lockdown.

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Raja Clavata said:

14 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

From what I've seen on social media and speaking to other people, the DC debacle gave an awful lot of people precisely the excuse they were looking for. Whilst I have not congregated or done anything radically outside the guidelines I did see it as encouragement more of my own version of common sense than I might otherwise of done.

I'd suggest there are lots of different factors with various (unknown) weightings, we should not just pick and choose the ones that suit our bias.

As I've said in my other reply to Vince - 100% agree that DC is an excuse.

There are lots of factors - and different weightings ........ but I'm not consciously picking and choosing - I see almost no reasons to be confident that relaxing lockdown in the way proposed is going to work in keeping the R number below 1 (i.e. no overall increase in cases).  The rules now are not being followed - in fact in many ways they are being completely ignored - and if that is the attitude taken, we might as well have done a 'herd immunity', shed half a million or so elderly and sick and had far less (though not no due to global factors) economic damage and saved a fortune on pension payouts, care homes etc.

[Mice!]

38 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

We have a VERY liberal 'regime' in which a high percentage of the population have no respect for the police, the community, rules, or in many cases even self discipline - and we are now paying the price for that.

Far too liberal,  everyone is scared of upsetting someone instead of saying this is how it is.

Isle of Man restricted people coming onto the island, MADE people stay in a hotel when they came back at their expense and got this situation under control. But its dealing with fewer people and took control so a job well done. 

Ireland have also had far fewer deaths, again I think this is because people obeyed their rules, and have a far different view of the police.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

As I've said in my other reply to Vince - 100% agree that DC is an excuse.

There are lots of factors - and different weightings ........ but I'm not consciously picking and choosing - I see almost no reasons to be confident that relaxing lockdown in the way proposed is going to work in keeping the R number below 1 (i.e. no overall increase in cases).  The rules now are not being followed - in fact in many ways they are being completely ignored - and if that is the attitude taken, we might as well have done a 'herd immunity', shed half a million or so elderly and sick and had far less (though not no due to global factors) economic damage and saved a fortune on pension payouts, care homes etc.

I reckon the vast majority are following the rules, it just doesn't make the news, for obvious reasons.

I actually think that herd immunity might have been a better option overall, with the benefit of hindsight.

[JohnfromUK]

Just now, Mice! said:

Far too liberal,  everyone is scared of upsetting someone instead of saying this is how it is.

Agreed

1 minute ago, Mice! said:

But its dealing with fewer people and took control so a job well done.

Agreed - and also I suspect that they are 'easier people' to deal with in that they will be more 'old school' in the IoM.

2 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Ireland have also had far fewer deaths, again I think this is because people obeyed their rules, and have a far different view of the police.

I don't know enough about Ireland to know, but don't doubt what you say.

1 minute ago, Raja Clavata said:

I actually think that herd immunity might have been a better option overall, with the benefit of hindsight.

Is 500,000 deaths (mainly elderly and infirm) acceptable?  Is that actually the right figure?  If we had the virus 'running wild' - how would that have damaged trade/tourism long term?

I can see your point of view, but I'm not sure it would have been acceptable politically, and have led to huge international issues.  Almost no countries have openly gone that route.  (Some 3rd world will have to take that route as they have little alternative).

[JohnfromUK]

11 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

I reckon the vast majority are following the rules, it just doesn't make the news, for obvious reasons.

I would agree with that .......... and when I go to my local supermarket (a Morrisons as it happens) the store, the staff, and the (few as I go very early) customers are all very good.  That is effectively the only time I leave home other than on foot for walks.

However both local and national news are now a mass of reports of various transgressions of the gathering limits rules and the accompanying photos indicate that it is happening. 

 

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

Is 500,000 deaths (mainly elderly and infirm) acceptable?  Is that actually the right figure?  If we had the virus 'running wild' - how would that have damaged trade/tourism long term?

I can see your point of view, but I'm not sure it would have been acceptable politically, and have led to huge international issues.  Almost no countries have openly gone that route.  (Some 3rd world will have to take that route as they have little alternative).

It's a very subjective and emotive subject, as I'm sure you'll agree. I did the maths previously and posted them on here and I think people should draw their own conclusions on what would and would not be acceptable / bearable.

I do think 500k deaths would have been unacceptable if "comparable" countries did not follow suit, I suspect this played a part in the government and scientific strategy.

With respect to running wild, I guess that would all depend on how long that persisted and I suspect we have no real way of knowing.

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

I would agree with that .......... and when I go to my local supermarket (a Morrisons as it happens) the store, the staff, and the (few as I go very early) customers are all very good.  That is effectively the only time I leave home other than on foot for walks.

However both local and national news are now a mass of reports of various transgressions of the gathering limits rules and the accompanying photos indicate that it is happening. 

 

Similar to my experiences too and agree on the news.

[JohnfromUK]

2 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

It's a very subjective and emotive subject, as I'm sure you'll agree. I did the maths previously and posted them on here and I think people should draw their own conclusions on what would and would not be acceptable / bearable.

I don't think anyone knows what the number would have been - as with the NHS swamped it might be higher that expected ..... and also - there seems to be some evidence that a significant portion of the 'survivors' have long term heath issues and quite severe ones at that which may/may not be permanent.

When the rest of Europe is seeing below 50K (well below in many cases) - 500K here would have been political suicide. 

Herd immunity (I think) means that you are likely have a constant ongoing level of cases - probably much less severe - where the virus is reinfecting the ones whose antibodies are declining.  A bit like a common cold - except that to those with no immunity - it can be very serious (as common colds apparently are to isolated populations 'up jungle').  If we could prove you can never get it twice ........ have longterm immunity ...... and cannot be a long term non symptomatic carrier ...... it might be viable, but currently - those factors are not known.  Hence the plan to 'flatten the peak' to retain the capacity to treat medically and strain every effort to getting a vaccine.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

I don't think anyone knows what the number would have been - as with the NHS swamped it might be higher that expected ..... and also - there seems to be some evidence that a significant portion of the 'survivors' have long term heath issues and quite severe ones at that which may/may not be permanent.

When the rest of Europe is seeing below 50K (well below in many cases) - 500K here would have been political suicide. 

Herd immunity (I think) means that you are likely have a constant ongoing level of cases - probably much less severe - where the virus is reinfecting the ones whose antibodies are declining.  A bit like a common cold - except that to those with no immunity - it can be very serious (as common colds apparently are to isolated populations 'up jungle').  If we could prove you can never get it twice ........ have longterm immunity ...... and cannot be a long term non symptomatic carrier ...... it might be viable, but currently - those factors are not known.  Hence the plan to 'flatten the peak' to retain the capacity to treat medically and strain every effort to getting a vaccine.

Indeed. Don't know if you'd seen the reports but on the plus side they are now saying the death rate from COVID in the UK has gone down from 6% to ~1%, again probably multi-factorial reason but very good news all round.

Simplistically, that would suggest about 700k deaths in the UK if everyone caught it, now if you could be 100% certain (which you can't) that would be the end of it then perhaps that would have been worth taking a punt on. I'm not strongly advocating it, just saying.

Key take for me is that it's still a very dynamic and unravelling episode so it's reasonable to expect the approach to mitigate it will evolve (assuming the powers that be are taking into account all the latest data and growing knowledge base).

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, Raja Clavata said:

then perhaps that would have been worth taking a punt on.

With much of the rest of the world 'locked down' and the turmoil that 700K deaths might cause - the economic damage might be similar (maybe worse) than we have now.  Would you want to have goods, foodstuffs from the UK, holiday in the UK, tourists from the UK to your country when they have maybe 10x as bad virus fatalities as your own country and the virus circulating unchecked?  It is impossible to know what the (economic) damage might be.  We might be seen as thoroughly 'antisocial' allowing that to happen and become a pariah.

I have a suspicion that there are two factors behind the improved mortality rate;

• Better medical understanding leading to better outcomes
• More accurate recording of 'recovering' cases

I am one who believes that it was here and growing much earlier than acknowledged - maybe November or early December, and so many early cases were not recognised as Covid because it 'wasn't here', and so any deaths were put down as flu/pneumonia.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, JohnfromUK said:

With much of the rest of the world 'locked down' and the turmoil that 700K deaths might cause - the economic damage might be similar (maybe worse) than we have now.  Would you want to have goods, foodstuffs from the UK, holiday in the UK, tourists from the UK to your country when they have maybe 10x as bad virus fatalities as your own country and the virus circulating unchecked?  It is impossible to know what the (economic) damage might be.  We might be seen as thoroughly 'antisocial' allowing that to happen and become a pariah.

I have a suspicion that there are two factors behind the improved mortality rate;

• Better medical understanding leading to better outcomes
• More accurate recording of 'recovering' cases

I am one who believes that it was here and growing much earlier than acknowledged - maybe November or early December, and so many early cases were not recognised as Covid because it 'wasn't here', and so any deaths were put down as flu/pneumonia.

Sorry, should have caveated it with the previous "neighbouring countries following suit" as before.

One of the other factors being cited is that a different demographic of people are now being infected too.

[Bumble]

5 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

I would agree with that .......... and when I go to my local supermarket (a Morrisons as it happens) the store, the staff, and the (few as I go very early) customers are all very good.  That is effectively the only time I leave home other than on foot for walks.

However both local and national news are now a mass of reports of various transgressions of the gathering limits rules and the accompanying photos indicate that it is happening. 

 

I went to Morrisons yesterday to do the big shop, and after 5 mins I abandoned my trolly, walked out & went to Waitrose instead.  There was virtually no attempt at social distancing by an awfully large amount of people in Morrisons, to the point where I had some utter idiot push past & actually make contact while I was waiting for somebody else to move on. It’s the worst shopping experience I’ve had so far, and almost as if the majority of people have completely given up on social distancing. 

Waitrose was the polar opposite, and despite costing me a few quid more, was well worth it for a much safer & more civilised shopping experience. 

[JohnfromUK]

5 minutes ago, Bumble said:

I went to Morrisons yesterday to do the big shop

Our branch of Morrisons has a very proactive manager at present who seems very switched on, so I think we are lucky.  He is also very good at getting 'end of sell by' goods to the local foodbank . 

We don't have a Waitrose very conveniently located for me.

[Saltings]

I hope and pray we don't have a second lockdown       however recent days  beach jolly's football jolly's protest jolly's house parties  street parties jollies     the government is advise only  to help the nhs to save lives         riots blm as more subjectable to the virus  more liable  to arrest  and yet being sent hme by the police  in their thousands from street parties  it beggars belief  blame not having correct  ppe when my family members  white with the same ppe front line as everyone  else     have lost their lives without saying goodbye     you   absolute  ********    mods  please don't filter     this  sometimes you got to cuse  to make others ********  listen  3 months of lockdown by me and my family  and friends  nothing achieve re virus   self centered ********    (you ******** ) a party so you can riot and blame the police  and riot ( you ******** )  what have you ******** done to save any life        nout  take that to your grave self centered ********  mods help your self  put me in the same box as ditch man  we are both practical we will survive  and im in good company    why hould anyone state a fact and pay a price rip a statue down   which reminds of the good  and bad  don't repeat history      im irish  I don't have a vendetta   I am happy in the country which has afforded me a life I can  pay taxes bring up a family who all work while   paying taxes  no scroungers here  however it infuriates me      cant be bothered to make a life sit and rot playing x box  and a splif   deal drugs  I may get  ban free speech may upset others  however true 

[fatchap]

I think that was the second wave, I believe the first and quite mild wave was around Christmas and January. Quite a few people I know including myself was unwell around Christmas last year, told by doctors it was some form of virus. 

Anyone on here felt rough around that time with what felt a bit like flu that wouldn't go away?

[mel b3]

I've just got back from my morning stroll  ,  I only walk 1.5 miles , and in that short space I've walked past three house/ garden parties , that were all still going strong . I can only imagine that it must be a similar story in many parts of the country.

I suspect that the government would have pretty much zero chance of managing another lockdown .

My family have done our very best to do as asked by government,  but at present,  it's looking like it was all a bit of a waste of time,  and that herd immunity might have been the way to go anyway . 

If the infection rate does start to climb , I can't see how it can be as dangerous as the first time,  those poor people that were high risk , have already passed away anyway .

I don't have any of the answers , and to be honest , I don't even understand all of the questions , but one thing i do know , is that we're still in a right old mess.

[JohnfromUK]

40 minutes ago, fatchap said:

Anyone on here felt rough around that time with what felt a bit like flu that wouldn't go away?

I was unwell late December/early January with a 'mystery illness' - enough to get me to Dr. for first time in years.  Various tests done, nothing actually identified.  To this day I don't know what it was, but maybe it was Covid?  My symptoms weren't what were initially listed for Covid, (not much of a cough or loss of taste etc.) but since then the list of Covid symptoms has been expanded.  I do have a normal flu vaccination, but you can still get flu, bad colds, etc.  Simply don't know.

The good side was that I lost about 15% of my weight and have managed to keep most of it off!

37 minutes ago, mel b3 said:

I've just got back from my morning stroll .......

I can't disagree with any of your post.

Edited June 28, 2020 by JohnfromUK

[TIGHTCHOKE]

2 hours ago, Saltings said:

I hope and pray we don't have a second lockdown       however recent days  beach jolly's football jolly's protest jolly's house parties  street parties jollies     the government is advise only  to help the nhs to save lives         riots blm as more subjectable to the virus  more liable  to arrest  and yet being sent hme by the police  in their thousands from street parties  it beggars belief  blame not having correct  ppe when my family members  white with the same ppe front line as everyone  else     have lost their lives without saying goodbye     you   absolute  ********    mods  please don't filter     this  sometimes you got to cuse  to make others ********  listen  3 months of lockdown by me and my family  and friends  nothing achieve re virus   self centered ********    (you ******** ) a party so you can riot and blame the police  and riot ( you ******** )  what have you ******** done to save any life        nout  take that to your grave self centered ********  mods help your self  put me in the same box as ditch man  we are both practical we will survive  and im in good company    why hould anyone state a fact and pay a price rip a statue down   which reminds of the good  and bad  don't repeat history      im irish  I don't have a vendetta   I am happy in the country which has afforded me a life I can  pay taxes bring up a family who all work while   paying taxes  no scroungers here  however it infuriates me      cant be bothered to make a life sit and rot playing x box  and a splif   deal drugs  I may get  ban free speech may upset others  however true 

Well said Mate.

Let's hope we can get past the worst before the cold weather that the virus likes is helping it again.

[southeastpete]

1 hour ago, fatchap said:

I think that was the second wave, I believe the first and quite mild wave was around Christmas and January. Quite a few people I know including myself was unwell around Christmas last year, told by doctors it was some form of virus. 

Anyone on here felt rough around that time with what felt a bit like flu that wouldn't go away?

I actually am remember having a cold that seemed to last a long time, 3 weeks? 

[Mice!]

7 hours ago, Saltings said:

I hope and pray we don't have a second lockdown       however recent days  beach jolly's football jolly's protest jolly's house parties  street parties jollies     the government is advise only  to help the nhs to save lives         riots blm as more subjectable to the virus  more liable  to arrest  and yet being sent hme by the police  in their thousands from street parties  it beggars belief  blame not having correct  ppe when my family members  white with the same ppe front line as everyone  else     have lost their lives without saying goodbye     you   absolute  ********    mods  please don't filter     this  sometimes you got to cuse  to make others ********  listen  3 months of lockdown by me and my family  and friends  nothing achieve re virus   self centered ********    (you ******** ) a party so you can riot and blame the police  and riot ( you ******** )  what have you ******** done to save any life        nout  take that to your grave self centered ********  mods help your self  put me in the same box as ditch man  we are both practical we will survive  and im in good company    why hould anyone state a fact and pay a price rip a statue down   which reminds of the good  and bad  don't repeat history      im irish  I don't have a vendetta   I am happy in the country which has afforded me a life I can  pay taxes bring up a family who all work while   paying taxes  no scroungers here  however it infuriates me      cant be bothered to make a life sit and rot playing x box  and a splif   deal drugs  I may get  ban free speech may upset others  however true 

You haven't said anything the rest of us haven't said, many will have thought it.

5 hours ago, mel b3 said:

I've just got back from my morning stroll  ,  I only walk 1.5 miles , and in that short space I've walked past three house/ garden parties , that were all still going strong . I can only imagine that it must be a similar story in many parts of the country.

I suspect that the government would have pretty much zero chance of managing another lockdown .

My family have done our very best to do as asked by government,  but at present,  it's looking like it was all a bit of a waste of time,  and that herd immunity might have been the way to go anyway . 

If the infection rate does start to climb , I can't see how it can be as dangerous as the first time,  those poor people that were high risk , have already passed away anyway .

I don't have any of the answers , and to be honest , I don't even understand all of the questions , but one thing i do know , is that we're still in a right old mess.

Happily I've not seen any parties near me, but that doesn't mean it's not going on?

I'd like to think the lockdown has helped,  it could have been worse, thankfully we don't know.

I'd imagine most have followed the rules, but most are fed up and had enough, might as well get the masses back to work,  if they are happy to go the beach or parties, celebrate Liverpool winning the league then get back to work, no doubt the pubs will be busy on Saturday??

[Raja Clavata]

Interesting article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-28/sweden-s-covid-expert-says-the-world-still-doesn-t-understand

 

[mel b3]

1 hour ago, Mice! said:

You haven't said anything the rest of us haven't said, many will have thought it.

Happily I've not seen any parties near me, but that doesn't mean it's not going on?

I'd like to think the lockdown has helped,  it could have been worse, thankfully we don't know.

I'd imagine most have followed the rules, but most are fed up and had enough, might as well get the masses back to work,  if they are happy to go the beach or parties, celebrate Liverpool winning the league then get back to work, no doubt the pubs will be busy on Saturday??

police officers all around the country must be absolutely dreading the pubs opening again , god itll be a mess.

[Scully]

Our village pub and its two caravan sites ( one tourer one static ) are reopening this weekend. They have been inundated with enquiries for a week or two now so it may be rather chaotic.
Screens have gone up on the bar, and all requirements will be  adhered to by the landlord and staff, so much will depend on the behaviour of those who turn up, as to how it will go. 

[Stonepark]

The reason a lot of young people and families are ignoring the COVID 19 rules is very simple..... the virus is not going to kill them or their friends or anyone they know within their age groups (unless very unlucky due to other serious diagnosed or undiagnosed co-morbidities such as immune system issues etc).

 

Currently the statistics are as follows (up to June 12th) for COVID19 deaths in the population represented as a risk are:-

Under 1 Year Old, 1 in 324,694

1 to 14 Year Old, 1 in 2,518,212

15 to 44 Year Old, 1 in 43,370

45 to 64 Year Old, 1 in 3,264

65 to 74 Year Old, 1 in 828

75 to 84 Year Old, 1 in 229

85 Years Plus, 1 in 72.

 

Subconsiously, a lot of people are picking up on this and reacting accordingly and the government is going to struggle locking down the younger population when effectively the vast majority are not at any serious risk and the odds of being struck by lighning in the UK is 1 in 1.2 million, the chances of being killed by a car is 1 in 32,500, etc.

 

	Annual death risk 1 in X
	Men	Women
All ages	136	193
Under 1	177	227
1- 4	4386	5376
5 - 14	8333	10417
15-24	1908	4132
25-34	1215	2488
35-44	663	1106
45-54	279	421
55-64	112	178
65-74	42	65
75-84	15	21
85 and over	6	7

[Mice!]

14 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

15 to 44 Year Old, 1 in 43,370

I would have thought this figure would be higher.

But yes like you say most by now will be thinking we've not been effected, or know anybody who has.

We only know of a few people who have had the virus, friends of friends working in hospitals.

So the country staying locked down seems wrong now, but once the stable door is opened could they shut it again?

[Smokersmith]

44 minutes ago, Mice! said:

but once the stable door is opened could they shut it again?

In my view the door was swinging wildly in march, but I think now it would only peep open a bit ….