How many didn't die because of covid.

[mel b3]

We're all aware of covid , and covid related deaths , be they directly from covid , or lack of treatments for other illnesses etc ,  but has anyone seen any kind of information about deaths that we would normally expect in the average year , but haven't happened due to the effects of covid and all that came with it ? . I wonder how many people won't die from flu this year as most of us are wearing masks and gloves etc , or I wonder how many people won't die from food poisoning due to washing their hands more often , and correctly , or how many people didn't die in a road traffic collision due to lockdown and quieter roads , or how many people didn't get killed in a 3 am drunken brawl because nightclubs are closed , have less people died from a drug overdose as drug supplies have slowed down ?(maybe ). Not that you could really call any of the above much of a win all things considered. 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

It certainly looks like Covid 19 is being listed on death certificates far too often.

[snow white]

Would like to see the statistics for what you are say Mel far to much put down to COVID.

[wascal]

34 minutes ago, snow white said:

Would like to see the statistics for what you are say Mel far to much put down to COVID.

 

[Lloyd90]

What’s the point of this thread?

 

[mel b3]

Sorry guys , I don't think I explained my meaning very well . When I said how many people didn't die because of covid ,  I meant , how many people didn't die from other things , due to the way that our lives have been altered by covid .

How many people would die from food poisoning in the average year , but haven’t died this year because they didn't eat out at a dodgy restaurant,  or are now washing their hands before they eat .

[Rossco89]

I believe in N. Ireland road deaths are certainly down year on year, I suspect lockdown 1 was the main contributor to that.

Unfortunatly I believe more people will die over the coming months due to treatments being either suspended or not even started due to covid ect. 
 

I am not a fan of “live time” statistics, I think the true effect of this pandemic will only be seen when we are through the other side in a few years time.

 

[mel b3]

11 minutes ago, Rossco89 said:

I believe in N. Ireland road deaths are certainly down year on year, I suspect lockdown 1 was the main contributor to that.

Unfortunatly I believe more people will die over the coming months due to treatments being either suspended or not even started due to covid ect. 
 

I am not a fan of “live time” statistics, I think the true effect of this pandemic will only be seen when we are through the other side in a few years time.

 

I'm in complete agreement with you on that one . It's a time bomb that we can all hear gently ticking away in the background. 

[Dave-G]

I can't remember where but recently saw a graph regarding usual monthly death rates over the last three years and the covid period months weren't massively different.

[snow white]

Somebody I was speaking to said that out of all that have died since lockdown began only 1 % where actually down to COVID 

[Lloyd90]

Plenty of Covid deniers. My cousins mate said it’s not real, don’t believe in it don’t think the economy should be stopped etc. etc. He carried on as normal, down the pub etc. 
 

He’s a youngish 33 year old man. No health conditions. 
 

First it started with a cough, he described it as horrific, up all night coughing and gasping for air. Violent shivering and feeling freezing cold whilst sweating buckets, soaking wet whilst being freezing cold. 
 

Slept all day Friday unable to even stand. Managed to wake up around 9pm and eat something for the first time in 2 days. 
 

Saturday morning he said he could not walk 10 yards to the toilet without getting out of breath, and he means seriously out of breath. Gasping for air like your drowning. 
 

Since then he was struggling with fatigue. He was apparently on the mend but I have heard he recently has taken another downhill turn. 
 

 

 

 

Whilst it is easy to compare numbers of deaths on an average year, we don’t know how much deaths have been reduced because of lockdown. 
 

We don’t know just had bad this would have ripped through the population and how many would have died if we did nothing. 
 

Apparently everyone thinks we should have done nothing and carried on as usual, can anyone think of a single country who actually did that? And are still doing that? I’m sure some claimed to but locked down later on? 🤷‍♂️

[243deer]

The trouble with statistics is that if you do not ask the right question then you cannot get the right answer. There are various mathematical theories that are held to be true, but not provable, which are applied to statistical data to 'prove' its validity.

I do not think that we are collecting data in the correct way to answer any of these questions definitively.

Many questions that are answered are political in origin and results are skewed by the way folk are told to collect data. A typical example of this is crime involving firearms, it would be very easy to ascertain if the weapon used was held illegally or legally and what type of weapon it wasyet the police are not allowed to record this as proven by freedom of information requests. Clearly there is an agenda out there that does not want this information in the public domain.

So we get information presented where the wording/meaning may have been changed such as 'deaths where covid 19 may have been a factor' to 'deaths caused by covid 19' depending on your source of information and the agenda for how ir is presented. The obvious comparison is tabloid newspaper/BBC or a respected medical journal.

Alternative data sources such as the NHS itself https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/ appear far more reliable as you just get the raw data to make your own mind up and not a spun story and someones wild interpretation of a worst case scenario.

[hawkfanz]

i think the best indication is to look at the ons statistics for deaths over the last five years[average],this years death rate is actually only a few thousand more than usual,their figurs not mine so we must asume the uk gov figurs for actual covid deaths is way overstated.

[AVB]

This year (3 Jan to 27 Nov) there have been 65,489 excess deaths (deaths above the five year average). This is calculated by totalling up the total deaths above or below the average published on a weekly basis. 
 

source ONS 

[Mice!]

I would imagine that a lot of people who might have died from flu over winter this year might either have already died from covid or are isolated at home so hopefully won't get ill this winter.

I spoke to 7daysinaweek last night,  he said they are flat at the moment,  anyone who gets flu like symptoms has to go through the covid procedure and they are seeing double the numbers they did back in April and March.

He said they have learned how to deal with covid better,  the average bed time has come down to 5 or 6days while earlier in the year it was 20-30 days.

I'm sure had the tiers and lockdowns not been done then things would be far worse in terms of deaths.

[Saltings]

ok on dearth scents no dramas      sister  inlaws  husband died last sunday  45 no dramas short of breath for a few days two negative tests for covid          dead      autopsy  to reveal cause of death 

i dont know what to say   god help you all 

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, Saltings said:

ok on dearth scents no dramas      sister  inlaws  husband died last sunday  45 no dramas short of breath for a few days two negative tests for covid          dead      autopsy  to reveal cause of death 

i dont know what to say   god help you all 

Really sorry to hear this, it's no age at all.

[grrclark]

On 12/12/2020 at 07:09, mel b3 said:

Sorry guys , I don't think I explained my meaning very well . When I said how many people didn't die because of covid ,  I meant , how many people didn't die from other things , due to the way that our lives have been altered by covid .

How many people would die from food poisoning in the average year , but haven’t died this year because they didn't eat out at a dodgy restaurant,  or are now washing their hands before they eat .

I understood what you meant and i've not seen any stat's to describe (non covid) deaths avoided due to covid restrictions, although there will certainly be some.

I suppose part of the problem is there is likely no specific repeatability to some of the causes of death that being either confined to quarters or improved hygiene have mitigated against.

It's like the campaign to not have closed looped cords on window blinds due to someone falling and being strangled by the cord.  How may deaths were prevented, maybe none, maybe hundreds, we will never know until we measure non looped corded blinds non deaths.

You would need to have some sort of repeatable statistical certainly in attributable cause of death to then attribute non deaths and you could only do that over an extended period of time.

To give some certainty in this answer, I can confirm for certain that I have not died of food poisoning this year, but i cannot say if that is due to not going to dodgy eateries or not washing my hands as I have not died of food poisoning in any previous years for either of those reasons either, but it could also be for either, both or none of those reasons.

[Dougy]

Strange that before we've had Covid 19 it was only Funeral Directors that were interested in the amount of Deaths, now it seems to be everyone. 

 

Mel, i see what your getting at, and must admit that traveling to work every morning during the 1st lockdown traffic accidents were down dramatically. Accidents at home increased slightly though. 

 

As for washing hands i found it appalling that adults need to be told to wash after using the toilet. 

[mel b3]

2 hours ago, grrclark said:

I understood what you meant and i've not seen any stat's to describe (non covid) deaths avoided due to covid restrictions, although there will certainly be some.

I suppose part of the problem is there is likely no specific repeatability to some of the causes of death that being either confined to quarters or improved hygiene have mitigated against.

It's like the campaign to not have closed looped cords on window blinds due to someone falling and being strangled by the cord.  How may deaths were prevented, maybe none, maybe hundreds, we will never know until we measure non looped corded blinds non deaths.

You would need to have some sort of repeatable statistical certainly in attributable cause of death to then attribute non deaths and you could only do that over an extended period of time.

To give some certainty in this answer, I can confirm for certain that I have not died of food poisoning this year, but i cannot say if that is due to not going to dodgy eateries or not washing my hands as I have not died of food poisoning in any previous years for either of those reasons either, but it could also be for either, both or none of those reasons.

I suppose that the amount of people that haven't died is pretty irrelevant really, it was just one of my early morning random thoughts , I'm having lots of them at the moment .

1 hour ago, Dougy said:

Strange that before we've had Covid 19 it was only Funeral Directors that were interested in the amount of Deaths, now it seems to be everyone. 

 

Mel, i see what your getting at, and must admit that traveling to work every morning during the 1st lockdown traffic accidents were down dramatically. Accidents at home increased slightly though. 

 

As for washing hands i found it appalling that adults need to be told to wash after using the toilet. 

I now have a covid checklist that I have to go through with my guys every morning before we start work . Two of the things that I remind them of are , wash your hands when you take a xxxx , and don't talk to strangers 😅.

You'd be amazed at how many folks don't know how to put on and take off gloves , and how many people will happily eat a sandwich while still wearing gloves 😅.

[Dougy]

2 minutes ago, mel b3 said:

I suppose that the amount of people that haven't died is pretty irrelevant really, it was just one of my early morning random thoughts , I'm having lots of them at the moment .

I now have a covid checklist that I have to go through with my guys every morning before we start work . Two of the things that I remind them of are , wash your hands when you take a xxxx , and don't talk to strangers 😅.

You'd be amazed at how many folks don't know how to put on and take off gloves , and how many people will happily eat a sandwich while still wearing gloves 😅.

I lost my rag with a inconsiderate self important bloke at work a few weeks ago who didn't think he needed to wear face covering in the presence of my team. Also told a member of senior management to wash his hands after using the toilet, i dont have i kids until i get to work. 

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Dougy said:

 

As for washing hands i found it appalling that adults need to be told to wash after using the toilet. 

I went to a restaurant today that had a neat gadget in the toilets. The door out of the toilets had an integrated hand sanitiser dispenser built in so you had little option but to sanitise your hands as you opened the door. Regardless of covid I am always cautious about opening the door due to the number of filthy ********* who don’t wash their hands. 

[mel b3]

3 minutes ago, Dougy said:

I lost my rag with a inconsiderate self important bloke at work a few weeks ago who didn't think he needed to wear face covering in the presence of my team. Also told a member of senior management to wash his hands after using the toilet, i dont have i kids until i get to work. 

The more senior the manager , the more they seem inclined to ignore the rules that they implement.  I can't decide if it's short memories,  or arrogance. 

[Dougy]

Just now, mel b3 said:

The more senior the manager , the more they seem inclined to ignore the rules that they implement.  I can't decide if it's short memories,  or arrogance. 

He didn't like it, even less so when i started to sing "happy Birthday" while he washed his hands, i did thank him after though. 

[Dave at kelton]

37 minutes ago, mel b3 said:

I suppose that the amount of people that haven't died is pretty irrelevant really, it was just one of my early morning random thoughts , I'm having lots of them at the moment .

I now have a covid checklist that I have to go through with my guys every morning before we start work . Two of the things that I remind them of are , wash your hands when you take a xxxx , and don't talk to strangers 😅.

You'd be amazed at how many folks don't know how to put on and take off gloves , and how many people will happily eat a sandwich while still wearing gloves 😅.

Well if you stop having early mornings you’ll save yourself and the rest of us a lot of trouble 😂😂😂😂