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Predictions?


Scully
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Small Tory majority (small being about 10 to 15 seats).

Labour loose a few seats, mainly in the north

Lib Dems - loose a very small number where people have defected from other parties

SNP about where they are now, possibly slightly down, Plaid Cymru about where they are now.

Greens - same 1 seat they have held before

Brexit party - none (as UKIP before them)

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if the brexiteers .........sideline the brexit party and vote con ....it will be a very good majority....if they dont it will be the same old same old or hung ...or labour.......

i dont think a lot of people will make their mind up until the last second....it will be ..."what the hell"....make an "X" and scuttle off...........

at the moment the polls are predicting much the same as we have now......and folk realise that if it continues it will be yet another 3-4 years of the utter carp we have now....

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3 minutes ago, ditchman said:

if the brexiteers .........sideline the brexit party and vote con ....it will be a very good majority....if they dont it will be the same old same old or hung ...or labour.......

i dont think a lot of people will make their mind up until the last second....it will be ..."what the hell"....make an "X" and scuttle off...........

at the moment the polls are predicting much the same as we have now......and folk realise that if it continues it will be yet another 3-4 years of the utter carp we have now....

Much truth in that. 

I think though - the 'presently undecided' will end up roughly in line with present 'decided' percentages, so the result will be along the lines of the opinion polls - a small Tory majority.

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13 minutes ago, ditchman said:

if the brexiteers .........sideline the brexit party and vote con ....it will be a very good majority....if they dont it will be the same old same old or hung ...or labour.......

i dont think a lot of people will make their mind up until the last second....it will be ..."what the hell"....make an "X" and scuttle off...........

at the moment the polls are predicting much the same as we have now......and folk realise that if it continues it will be yet another 3-4 years of the utter carp we have now....

I think you are right.

Do people vote for an obvious (Tory?) majority to at least get something moving and avoid the current situation. 

Latest polls say c.25 seat Tory majority but to allow for error/variances either way, it could be a bigger majority or a hung parliament.

Goes to show how tight it is and the fact that it's so hard to predict.

I'm no fan of Boris, but can't stand Corbyn and the sooner the Labour party get rid of him the more competitive they will become.

The amount of fake news/smear campaigns etc by ALL parties has been really bad (and more American) this year. Shame on all of them.

This is the least comfortable I have been in `supporting` a party for many years.

Edited by hedge
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Just now, JohnfromUK said:

which will be deeply harming to shooting and fieldsports.

How any field sports supporter or their allied trades could vote for Labour is beyond me! The Labour Party ceased to be the Labour Party when Bliar and his “New” Labour crowd got into no 10! 

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3 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

How so?

If the Conservatives don't gain an overall majority, who will be Prime Minister? It will either be Corbyn with a Labour Majority or Corbyn in a Labour-led coalition. The only other alternative is something more or less what we have now, then another GE (probably) in February. The Tories only have one chance, and that's an overall majority, whereas labour have at least two bites, majority or coalition. 

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1 minute ago, Thunderbird said:

If the Conservatives don't gain an overall majority, who will be Prime Minister?

Good question!

Johnson has probably no likely allies now the DUP are no longer 'on side'.  Hence if he doesn't get a majority, he will in effect be powerless as he will get nothing through the commons.

Corbyn will not get a majority (would need to gain over 100 seats which isn't going to happen) but could get 'propped up' by SNP, LibDem, Greens, and at least some of the 'former Labour' MPs.  If we look at this;

  • SNP will vote for much of the hard left stuff McDonnell, Corbyn, Abbott, Pidcock and others want IF they are granted a second Scotland referendum - and will support lowering the voting age.
  • LibDem will support any leave activities and also reducing voting age to 16, but not the harder lefty (such as nationalisation) issues.
  • Green (who are very lefty) will support Labour and will also support voter age reduction
  • Labour cabinet will be nearly all Remainers who will campaign for Remain in any future referendum

So we have a Corbyn minority who will be able to do almost nothing other than NHS spending, lowering voting age and TWO new referendums, Scotland Independance and Leave under a new Corbyn (stay in Customs Union and Single Market) 'leave' deal or Remain.

Results;

  • Voting age will be reduced to 16
  • Scotland will vote again with lower voter age on leaving the Union
  • UK will remain in the EU
  • Voting age will be 16 making a Labour majority much more likely in any General Election - which will follow soon afterwards.
  • That will lead to a Labour Majority and all the lefty lunacy that McDonnell, Corbyn, Abbott, Pidcock want.
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I hope to god it is Con win otherwise sell your guns quickly and leave the country. JC has pledged to get rid of guns; he hate the Royals, landowners, wealth (part from his own), the Armed Forces and in the Labour Manifesto he wants to turn Grouse Moors and the Highlands into National Parks thus removing shooting and fishing etc from wealthy landowners. How can anyone vote for someone who loves the IRA, Hammas and ***** Dianne Abbot???

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15 minutes ago, Thunderbird said:

If the Conservatives don't gain an overall majority, who will be Prime Minister? It will either be Corbyn with a Labour Majority or Corbyn in a Labour-led coalition. The only other alternative is something more or less what we have now, then another GE (probably) in February. The Tories only have one chance, and that's an overall majority, whereas labour have at least two bites, majority or coalition. 

And that would be of the Conservatives own doing. Boris has gone for win or bust. But if the UK public really "want Brexit done" then Boris has nothing to fear, he'll walk it in that case.

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2 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

The market would collapse if that were followed.  Only the 'best' would be exportable - the rest would in effect be worthless.

Remember Dunblain they were quick enough to erraditcate all legally held weapons and put countless people out of work for what was no more than a callous vote winning exercise

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