Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.

[Raja Clavata]

The more pertinent question is would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Biden had stated that the US and or others would assist the Ukrainians. Instead Biden basically provided an open invite for Putin to do exactly what he ended up doing.

A follow-up question, which I believe Rewulf and others have asked before is why did Biden make that statement.

Fully aware the above facts may sit uncomfortably with die-hard fans of the US...

[oowee]

15 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Very true.

This piece is quite long , but fascinatingly insightful into the Russian mindset.
It reads like a microcosm of what was to come later.

https://warontherocks.com/2018/08/the-august-war-ten-years-on-a-retrospective-on-the-russo-georgian-war/

Thx for that. Looks interesting, i will read it later.

[Rewulf]

29 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

The more pertinent question is would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Biden had stated that the US and or others would assist the Ukrainians. Instead Biden basically provided an open invite for Putin to do exactly what he ended up doing.

A follow-up question, which I believe Rewulf and others have asked before is why did Biden make that statement.

Fully aware the above facts may sit uncomfortably with die-hard fans of the US...

I think its become clear that Biden is completely incapable of independent thought, so , was he told to make that statement, or as some have claimed, he messed up?
Either way the US state department has consistently made it clear that the US assistance for Ukraine would be limited to weapons. Thus keeping the war limited to proxy.
Even supplying intelligence via satellites and AWACS to the Ukrainian war effort is 'plausibly denied' IE unprovable.

If anyone is under any illusion that the US isnt very happy with whats happened so far, they need to give their head a wobble.

[Raja Clavata]

8 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I think its become clear that Biden is completely incapable of independent thought, so , was he told to make that statement, or as some have claimed, he messed up?
Either way the US state department has consistently made it clear that the US assistance for Ukraine would be limited to weapons. Thus keeping the war limited to proxy.
Even supplying intelligence via satellites and AWACS to the Ukrainian war effort is 'plausibly denied' IE unprovable.

If anyone is under any illusion that the US isnt very happy with whats happened so far, they need to give their head a wobble.

I'm with you on this aspect.

[ordnance]

4 hours ago, Rewulf said:

How on earth could you possibly know that ?
Did they (re) grab the Baltic states before they joined NATO ?
Did they annex Belarus in a land grab ?
Did they roll over Moldova when the Transnistria conflict happened ?
Did they take Georgia or Chechnya when they could have easily ?
Did they take the whole of Ukraine in 2014 before western weapons and training came along , while it had no leadership and the army was in disarray ?
We are lead to believe that Finland had to join NATO to protect its borders, Sweden too apparently ?

Just how dangerous was Russia prior to Ukraines invasion ?

No doubt you will take this as me defending Russia, get those ideas out of your head, this is about explaining why these events have happened, rather than clutching at some manufactured idea of crazy Ivan rampaging through Europe, with only Uncle Sam to protect us.
No one thought like this between 1991 and 2014, but there is no profit in peace.

I know hes annoying , but watch this from Brand from 1.10 onwards.

 

You are scraping the bottom of the barrel with Russell Brand, it makes sense now where you are getting your views from LOL.

[Mungler]

We have pages and pages of conspiracy theory and wild speculation as to the reasons behind the Russian invasion but in all of the possibilities no matter how far fetched, there’s no mention and zero weight attached to the possibility of this being a Russian land grab.

Nope, a Putin land grab and his rebuilding the Russia of old just like his hero Peter the Great doesn’t make its way onto the very long list of possible reasons for the invasion. That’s very telling. 
.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Mungler

[Mungler]

3 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

The more pertinent question is would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Biden had stated that the US and or others would assist the Ukrainians. Instead Biden basically provided an open invite for Putin to do exactly what he ended up doing.

A follow-up question, which I believe Rewulf and others have asked before is why did Biden make that statement.

Fully aware the above facts may sit uncomfortably with die-hard fans of the US...

The general consensus is that the Kremlin had thrown a ton of bribe money into Ukrainian and the reports back were that the Russian military would be welcomed with open arms (and as had happened elsewhere).

Those involved in the organised bribing operation who kept the bribe money and fed false reports up the chain of command have all since been disappeared.

This is supported by the Russian’s use of tanks, lack of supplies / long plan and intercepted supplies (riot gear, not artillery).

As for Biden, he is just plain senile. And as Hanlon’s razor goes ‘never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.’

.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Mungler

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

We have pages and pages of conspiracy theory and wild speculation as to the reasons behind the Russian invasion but in all of the possibilities no matter how far fetched, there’s no mention and zero weight attached to the possibility of this being a Russian land grab.

Except it has been mentioned,  I knew I'd said it, and probably others, but it took a while scrolling and looking for my posts, this is the third land grab.

This is another post, the third time Russia has invaded. Its about territory,  pressure from NATO,  control of the ports, and that Ukraine is fertile and mineral rich.

You could say the reaction was replacing the Ukrainian government,  training their troops and sending supplies.

Your words "the Ukrainians have certainly taken one for team Europe " they have that,  the problem is they're still taking them with no signs of it stopping.

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

As for Biden, he is just plain senile. And as Hanlon’s razor goes ‘never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.’

@NoBodyImportant mentioned very early on in the thread that this wouldn't have happened while Trump was in the White House, the Russians clearly play the long game.

[ordnance]

Quote

mentioned very early on in the thread that this wouldn't have happened while Trump was in the White House, the Russians clearly play the long game.

Why do some think it would not have happened if Trump was in the White House, maybe it would maybe it wouldn't i don't know.

 

Edited July 20, 2022 by ordnance

[Rewulf]

3 hours ago, ordnance said:

You are scraping the bottom of the barrel with Russell Brand, it makes sense now where you are getting your views from LOL.

If you had actually watched the video, it wasn't Brand doing the analysis. 

But never mind. 

2 hours ago, Mungler said:

Nope, a Putin land grab and his rebuilding the Russia of old just like his hero Peter the Great doesn’t make its way onto the very long list of possible reasons for the invasion. That’s very telling

Even the laziest hacks in the MSM don't believe its just a land grab, mainly because he's had 8 years to do it, and any one of those years would have been easier than 2022.

Again, makes no sense, too costly, and too much rep lost to make it worthwhile. 

2 hours ago, Mungler said:

The general consensus is that the Kremlin had thrown a ton of bribe money into Ukrainian and the reports back were that the Russian military would be welcomed with open arms (and as had happened elsewhere).

Those involved in the organised bribing operation who kept the bribe money and fed false reports up the chain of command have all since been disappeared.

Theres literally NO  evidence to back this theory up, I said at the time, it's highly likely to be a Ukrainian misinformation campaign to sow discourse and doubt. 

Same as the 'Putin's got cancer and weeks to live', or 'Russia lost half its tanks and men' 

The best one is 'Russia has no precision weapons left' just as several barrages of them fly overhead. 

Ukrainian propaganda has been relentless in its Soviet style daily rantings. 

38 minutes ago, ordnance said:

Why do some think it would not have happened if Trump was in the White House, maybe it would maybe it wouldn't i don't know.

 

At least you admit to not knowing something for once. 

[ordnance]

Quote

 

If you had actually watched the video, it wasn't Brand doing the analysis. 

But never mind. 

 

You know where is is going if Russell Brand has anything to do with it, into the twilight zone. 

Quote

At least you admit to not knowing something for once. 

Yes unlike some. 

[Rewulf]

1 minute ago, ordnance said:

You know where is is going if Russell Brand has anything to do with it, into the twilight zone

Like I said, never mind. 

[Mungler]

5 hours ago, Mice! said:

Except it has been mentioned,  I knew I'd said it, and probably others, but it took a while scrolling and looking for my posts, this is the third land grab.

This is another post, the third time Russia has invaded. Its about territory,  pressure from NATO,  control of the ports, and that Ukraine is fertile and mineral rich.

You could say the reaction was replacing the Ukrainian government,  training their troops and sending supplies.

Your words "the Ukrainians have certainly taken one for team Europe " they have that,  the problem is they're still taking them with no signs of it stopping.

@NoBodyImportant mentioned very early on in the thread that this wouldn't have happened while Trump was in the White House, the Russians clearly play the long game.

I was responding to Rewulf who you will see (as above) is adamant that this is not a Putin land grab.

He has put forward pages and pages of conspiracy theory but has absolutely excluded the possibility of the invasion of Ukraine being a land grab driven by Putin and that’s presumably because this is all the fault of the West and NATO etc.

 

[Mungler]

3 hours ago, Rewulf said:

If you had actually watched the video, it wasn't Brand doing the analysis. 

But never mind. 

Even the laziest hacks in the MSM don't believe its just a land grab, mainly because he's had 8 years to do it, and any one of those years would have been easier than 2022.

Again, makes no sense, too costly, and too much rep lost to make it worthwhile. 

Theres literally NO  evidence to back this theory up, I said at the time, it's highly likely to be a Ukrainian misinformation campaign to sow discourse and doubt. 

Same as the 'Putin's got cancer and weeks to live', or 'Russia lost half its tanks and men' 

The best one is 'Russia has no precision weapons left' just as several barrages of them fly overhead. 

Ukrainian propaganda has been relentless in its Soviet style daily rantings. 

At least you admit to not knowing something for once. 

So you dismiss out of hand this being a Putin land grab? Presumably this is because it removes all the conspiracy theories about NATO, Trump, the Saudis etc etc and lays bare Russia as the invading aggressor?

I’m not sure there’s enough hours in the day to set out the interviews with Putin, the press releases or other commentary where he laments Russia's darkest day under Yeltsin and how he’s a big fan of Peter the Great and wants to glue the Soviet Union back together as his legacy.

Lets start with this one from a few weeks ago and the video clip of Putin himself on the subject - no doubt it’s a NATO created deep fake eh?

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/putin-compares-himself-to-peter-the-great-in-quest-to-take-back-russian-lands

 

[islandgun]

I see they have turned on the gas supply back to Germany

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2022/7/20/russia-ukraine-live-news

[Rewulf]

6 hours ago, Mungler said:

So you dismiss out of hand this being a Putin land grab? Presumably this is because it removes all the conspiracy theories about NATO, Trump, the Saudis etc etc and lays bare Russia as the invading aggressor?

I don't dismiss it 'out of hand' I said it makes no sense, for various reasons. 

There are no conspiracy theories about NATO, Ukraine was basically invited to join, NATO knew this would incense Russia, so NATO carried on and started training and arming them. 

Ukraine becomes battleground Europe, the US claps its hands with glee. 

Trump and the Saudis? 

Russia is the invading aggressor, just as its always portrayed to be. 

6 hours ago, Mungler said:

how he’s a big fan of Peter the Great

Everyone in Russia, and Ukraine, is a big fan of Peter the Great, the clue is in the last part of his name. 

 

6 hours ago, Mungler said:

I’m not sure there’s enough hours in the day to set out the interviews with Putin, the press releases or other commentary where he laments Russia's darkest day under Yeltsin

If you mean the much vaunted bit where he says 'I want to put the USSR back together' He never said it, try and find the actual interview where he said any such thing. 

What he said was, he laments the collapse of the USSR, for the trouble and economic woe it caused, and that under that regime, he would have been a nobody. 

6 hours ago, Mungler said:

Lets start with this one from a few weeks ago and the video clip of Putin himself on the subject - no doubt it’s a NATO created deep fake eh?

Again, taken out of context, listen to what he actually said verbatim. 

Then read up on what the Great northern war actually entailed, and how ridiculously complicated it became. 

2 hours ago, islandgun said:

I see they have turned on the gas supply back to Germany

This again got twisted. 

'Russia holds Germany to ransom by stopping gas deliveries'

The gas supply to Germany was never switched off, it was limited due to annual maintainance, and the fact that a turbine was sent to Canada for repair. 

Under the sanctions, Canada couldn't legally return the turbine to Russia, they managed to bend the rules and returned it to Germany, who then sent it on to Russia, who have now fitted it and restarted full gas flow. 

 

[islandgun]

17 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

 

This again got twisted. 

'Russia holds Germany to ransom by stopping gas deliveries'

The gas supply to Germany was never switched off, it was limited due to annual maintainance, and the fact that a turbine was sent to Canada for repair. 

Under the sanctions, Canada couldn't legally return the turbine to Russia, they managed to bend the rules and returned it to Germany, who then sent it on to Russia, who have now fitted it and restarted full gas flow. 

 

Twisted by Al Jazeera ? reading the link it just says the gas is turned back on after maintenance....make of that what you will

Edited July 21, 2022 by islandgun

[Rewulf]

38 minutes ago, islandgun said:

Twisted by Al Jazeera ? reading the link it just says the gas is turned back on after maintenance....make of that what you will

Al jazeera used to be a fairly unbiased media group, something seems to have changed lately... 

The fact that they don't mention the turbine at all, may be an oversight, but many other media groups have insinuated that Russia deliberately withheld gas to hurt Germany, completely leaving out the turbine story. 

This https://www-politico-eu.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-canada-sent-key-nord-stream-turbine-to-germany/amp/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From %1%24s&aoh=16583958686364&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.eu%2Farticle%2Fvolodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-canada-sent-key-nord-stream-turbine-to-germany%2F gives a very simplified version, but there's a lot more to it if you care to look. 👍

[ditchman]

im going to send putin my gas bill...........he will have a bloody heart attack then ......job sorted

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, Rewulf said:

Al jazeera used to be a fairly unbiased media group, something seems to have changed lately... 

The fact that they don't mention the turbine at all, may be an oversight, but many other media groups have insinuated that Russia deliberately withheld gas to hurt Germany, completely leaving out the turbine story. 

This https://www-politico-eu.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-canada-sent-key-nord-stream-turbine-to-germany/amp/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From %1%24s&aoh=16583958686364&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.eu%2Farticle%2Fvolodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-canada-sent-key-nord-stream-turbine-to-germany%2F gives a very simplified version, but there's a lot more to it if you care to look. 👍

 

Blimey, and you tell everyone else that that they read the news through blinkers.

Here's the Reuters reporting on it.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-declares-force-majeure-gas-supplies-europe-2022-07-18/

"But a spokesperson for the ministry said it was a replacement part that was meant to be used only from September, meaning its absence could not be the real reason for the fall-off in gas flows prior to the maintenance.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov redirected questions to Gazprom. Gazprom and the Russian energy ministry did not respond to requests for comment."

Turbine part, shmurbine part.

.

 

 

Edited July 21, 2022 by Mungler

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

Blimey, and you tell everyone else that that they read the news through blinkers.

From the Reuters report (2 days old)

The Russian state gas monopoly said in a letter dated July 14 that it was retroactively declaring force majeure on supplies from June 14. The news comes as Nord Stream 1, the key pipeline delivering Russian gas to Germany and beyond, is undergoing 10 days of annual maintenance scheduled to conclude on Thursday. 

Basically , matters beyond their control, ie , they couldnt get the turbine back in time to meet its contractual obligations for gas delivery.
NATO/EU translation , 'Russia is using energy as a weapon just like we said they would.'

The letter added to fears in Europe that Moscow may not restart the pipeline at the end of the maintenance period in retaliation for sanctions imposed on Russia over the war in Ukraine, heightening an energy crisis that risks tipping the region into recession.

What actually happened is that they got the turbine back to them, after delays over the sanction issue , just in time to get the gas flow upped to more normal levels today ,THURSDAY , like they said.
My rudimentary understanding , is that there are multiple turbines, but if one is taken out for maintainence, the others have to run faster to get the pressure, this is obviously not good for turbine life, and if another fails because of this , the pressure will further drop. So gas supply was throttled back , IT NEVER STOPPED as some reported.
When the reconditioned turbine is put back in , it needs to be run slow to check its OK for a while before returning to normal speeds ?
Another turbine is due to be sent to Canada at the end of this month for recon , so they dont want to melt one while another is away , or about to be sent away.
They can then do this ridiculous dance with the sanctions again.

What you (and the MSM) are doing , is completely ignoring relevant bits of information to suit the agenda you have set out for yourself, so dont talk to me about blinkers please.

Edit

"But a spokesperson for the ministry said it was a replacement part that was meant to be used only from September, meaning its absence could not be the real reason for the fall-off in gas flows prior to the maintenance."

Did he really say that ?

For one its not a replacement part, its an active part of the pressure system on the line that needs constant maintainence.
And if it wasnt needed till September, why did Germany move heaven , earth and sanctions to make sure it got back to Russia, even putting it on a plane , when it was originally supposed to travel by ship.
Zelensky appealed directly to the Canadian parliament last week, asking them (begged really) to not send the turbine back (they ignored him)
It FLEW through customs, and arrived back at the Russian end of Nordstream in 2 days, but no , it wasnt really needed to get that gas running.
Turbine Shmurbine you say ?

Edited July 21, 2022 by Rewulf
Forgot a bit.

[Mungler]

"But a spokesperson for the ministry said it was a replacement part that was meant to be used only from September, meaning its absence could not be the real reason for the fall-off in gas flows prior to the maintenance."

Did he really say that ?

 

Yes. It's a direct quote and it's been picked up on all the news carriers as such. Indeed, if the quote was wrong, no doubt we would hear further. And if Reuters were going to start lying in their reporting they could have done a better and bolder job.

In the meantime, given that gas supply has remained constant whilst this mystical part has been absent, one assumes that whilst is a relevant and desirable part, its absence in Canada hasn't thus far interrupted supply, has it?

You really do only want to see what you want to see.

[Rewulf]

8 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Yes. It's a direct quote and it's been picked up on all the news carriers as such. Indeed, if the quote was wrong, no doubt we would hear further. And if Reuters were going to start lying in their reporting they could have done a better and bolder job.

Its a direct quote from someone at the German economy ministry, who has decided for himself that Russia/Gazprom/Putin is lying, and if its been picked by 'all the news carriers' its because it plays into the narrative they want to hear.
Meanwhile , like I said , Germany has moved mountains to get this completely unnecessary part back to the Russian gas terminal !
And hey presto , once the turbine is installed , more gas can be sent.
Also be mindful of how this has been portrayed as 'Russia switched Germanys gas off' they clearly did not.
Again , playing into the narrative , and no one challenges the blatant lie of it.

 

17 minutes ago, Mungler said:

In the meantime, given that gas supply has remained constant whilst this mystical part has been absent, one assumes that whilst is a relevant and desirable part, its absence in Canada hasn't thus far interrupted supply, has it?

Except it hasnt , the wrangling over this turbine, and its release from Canada, has been going on for a month, and take a guess how long gas supplies have been limited to around 40 % of usual flow ?
The reason maintainance on the pipeline infrastructure is carried out at this time of year (every year)  is fairly obvious, the people of the EU dont need it so much in the summer, but again , the MSM and EU have used this as an example of Russian 'energy warfare' with VDL specifically saying so this week.

It doesnt take a huge amount of intelligence to question why EU head honcho Germany, is happy to spend billions on (aggressor) Russian gas, whilst simultaneously feeding weaponry into Ukraine, for the purposes of killing Russian citizens, its because it doesnt have a choice.
Why would Russia NOT stop gas flow into  the EU , whilst war materiel supplied by its customers, kills Russian soldiers ?It needs the money, so it has no choice.

So you have the situation, a rather hypocritical one Im sure youll agree, where they are all reliant upon each other for resources, whlist at the same time , trying to destroy each other.... meanwhile the US cashes in...
 

32 minutes ago, Mungler said:

You really do only want to see what you want to see.

Ditto, but Im prepared to engage to see your side.
Try and see the bigger picture here though , as when you accept certain inarguable truths , like the above, the plot becomes ever murkier.

[JohnfromUK]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

In the meantime, given that gas supply has remained constant whilst this mystical part has been absent, one assumes that whilst is a relevant and desirable part, its absence in Canada hasn't thus far interrupted supply, has it?

Germany has the worlds 4th largest gas storage capacity, about 10 weeks supply.  It is currently about 55% full, but they want to 'top it up' to near 100% because in winter, up to 60% of the daily gas usage can be drawn from the storage reserve, so top up in summer, run down in winter.  At present with only 40% of normal flow coming from Russia, they are worried about entering winter with low stored reserves.

[discobob]

16 hours ago, JohnfromUK said:

Germany has the worlds 4th largest gas storage capacity, about 10 weeks supply. 

whereas we have 2 days worth of storage.......