Whatmuff Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Is anyone else out there expecting one or is it just me? People seem to have their heads in the sand and every day the Global debt gets bigger and all I see is **** on the news about Brexit. US interest rates are rising, Italy are in talks with the EU about their failing economy, the Bank Of England have finally stated their worry about lending to companies already in debt, the London housing market has fallen and the UK economy is actually on it's knees with Amazon apparently taking the blame! We have store closures every month and stocks at all time highs, debt levels are rising to astronomical levels (Corporate and Private) and all my family and friends are looking to remortgage so they can extend or buy a new car!!! I see 2008 as a pin ***** compared to what's about to happen. Anyone else or just me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ditchman Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 nope dont feel right for a recession just yet......................just various companies catching colds thro greed....and that goes for some of the populace as well.............okay everything is going up and down at the moment....that just seems like the market readjusting itself.... mind you most of the working population havnt got over or out of the last depression............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Ruler Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Yeah, we must be due one, I just hope we’re fully out of the EU by then and don’t get dragged down by Italy, Portugal, Greece etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckandswing Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Either way, nothing we can do about it. Might as well just plod on and keep our own houses in order best we can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPP Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 We were in recession last year, just didn’t hit press.. Q4 2019 looks like it could be painful if Brexit is a mess, general election and ⅔ tough budgets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whatmuff Posted October 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 Hmmmm something just doesn't feel right, and with China trade wars and the Fed raising rates and inflation at all time highs the global economy is so fragile and rising rates are the last thing it needs. History has shown crashes to happen after all time highs and when no one expects them, kind of like now. 1 minute ago, PPP said: We were in recession last year, just didn’t hit press.. Q4 2019 looks like it could be painful if Brexit is a mess, general election and ⅔ tough budgets Absolutely, however I didn't see one article on that. All I saw was articles like "warm weather boosts economy" when in fact everything was falling apart from stocks and debt. Interest rates at near zero this time and there is no where to go apart from a major financial reset. 2008 rates were 5%. So had movement to go down, not this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted October 10, 2018 Report Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 hour ago, PPP said: We were in recession last year, just didn’t hit press.. Q4 2019 looks like it could be painful if Brexit is a mess, general election and ⅔ tough budgets I don’t think we were. A recession is when GDP growth is negative for two successive quarters. This didn’t occur in 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mice! Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Duckandswing said: Either way, nothing we can do about it. Might as well just plod on and keep our own houses in order best we can. I would say the above is bang on, seems everyone wants the newest shiniest (spelt right?) thing right now. Interesting thing in the paper about the fact Ford might stop production of Mondeos, this was blamed on the fact folk can now get credit and pay the same amount( per month) for a BMW or Merc. So when people are all driving new cars nice house holidays abroad £40 a month per mobile, is it any wonder the brown hits the fan when things change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddoakley Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 As above, everyone wants everything now and it's easy to have. For a long time credit has been thrown at people- mortgages they can't really afford, car finance, loans for holidays, remortgage for "home improvements" just because the "value" of their house has gone up. Houses aren't worth anything unless you sell and downsize or don't need to buy another. And not many people do that! Always looking for the next step and to borrow more. Many can barely afford their mortgage now and when interest rates go up (the only way they can go) they will be up the proverbial creek. Another housing crash/crisis and everything that that leads too. The only positive I can see at the moment is there is a lot of building work going on. Whether that's big developments or private work. That means that money is moving and that can keep things stable. Just my rambling thoughts after a 20 hour shift! Edd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whatmuff Posted October 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 hour ago, eddoakley said: As above, everyone wants everything now and it's easy to have. For a long time credit has been thrown at people- mortgages they can't really afford, car finance, loans for holidays, remortgage for "home improvements" just because the "value" of their house has gone up. Houses aren't worth anything unless you sell and downsize or don't need to buy another. And not many people do that! Always looking for the next step and to borrow more. Many can barely afford their mortgage now and when interest rates go up (the only way they can go) they will be up the proverbial creek. Another housing crash/crisis and everything that that leads too. The only positive I can see at the moment is there is a lot of building work going on. Whether that's big developments or private work. That means that money is moving and that can keep things stable. Just my rambling thoughts after a 20 hour shift! Edd Bang on Ed, and rates are rising to keep inflation under control and the cracks are appearing. Who thought a 500k mortgage for 40 years on two incomes at 1.2% wasn't a good investment..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVB Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 Buying things isn’t bad as it stimulates growth. Without it you get stagnation or recession. What needs to be controlled is inflation and debt. Both of which are good things but within reason. I feel we are in for a period of correction but I don’t think it will be a full blown recession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Konnie Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 AS been said youth and a few others have created a want it now culture, who works and saves for things now, profit is seen as a must by all companies, profit is if a company is run properly and takes investment in machinery etc into account money that can be chucked on the fire. shareholders are part of this culture, they expect profits, but if a company was to lose money and they were expected to pay more into company funds the problem would be solved only those that could afford to lose would invest and everything would have some balance. No recession just personal greed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scully Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 It’s not something I tend to get too concerned about to be honest. If it happens it happens. The world will keep turning and we’ll all just get on with it; it’s not like we have any option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
team tractor Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 I only said this yesterday. It’s on it’s way. work is drying up with lots of traders , shops, showrooms. We get told by the reps and our customers. It’s happening unfortunately. i blame jag for paying ridiculous amounts of money and then taking it away now. 4 bed new build start at £350k by us and young couples are buying them and putting carpets etc on the mortgage. How are they going to pay for them My mortgage renewal is going up £200 a month and I owe hardly anything. I’m going to shop around but this is happening. I guess it’s going up £5-600 a month to the big borrowers . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TIGHTCHOKE Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, team tractor said: I only said this yesterday. It’s on it’s way. work is drying up with lots of traders , shops, showrooms. We get told by the reps and our customers. It’s happening unfortunately. i blame jag for paying ridiculous amounts of money and then taking it away now. 4 bed new build start at £350k by us and young couples are buying them and putting carpets etc on the mortgage. How are they going to pay for them My mortgage renewal is going up £200 a month and I owe hardly anything. I’m going to shop around but this is happening. I guess it’s going up £5-600 a month to the big borrowers . Who are you blaming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddoakley Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 hours ago, AVB said: Buying things isn’t bad as it stimulates growth. Without it you get stagnation or recession. What needs to be controlled is inflation and debt. Both of which are good things but within reason. I feel we are in for a period of correction but I don’t think it will be a full blown recession. Buying things isn't only "not bad" but essential. Money only works if it's kept moving. Accumulation of wealth helps nobody. Even those accumulating. A big pile of money (Just figures on a screen but that's a whole other discussion) is useless. Yes we need people to buy houses, have work done to them, buy things for those houses and buy new cars etc, if nobody spends then nobody earns. BUT things aren't made here any more and there isn't enough people doing the manual labour. Construction is often a first indicator of financial problems ahead. There isn't enough manufacturing for that to highlight spending patterns. If government spending in housing or infrastructure stops then construction workers move to independent contractors (big firms). If they stop then those builders move to small companies who rely on individuals and companies spending. Each time there is more labour available to a sector the value of that labour falls. If construction workers aren't earning they aren't spending and that sends the problems straight back to the beginning- spending slows down and the work isn't there. As others have said, there isn't anything that you can do about it but brace yourself and try not to be in a position that will leave you in the doodoo when interest rates go up. A wise man once told me " don't go to bed until you have a pound more than you got up with". A motto I have tried to remember. I'm 40 now and do ok but I was still on site with my guys doing the hard graft until 0200 this morning as it needed to be done. I will be back there as soon as I've done a few bits in the office this morning. I don't drive fancy new cars or live in a house I can't afford. I try to look after myself financially so that the crash won't hurt me as much. I think I'm in the minority by a very long way. Edd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figgy Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 Well lets hope for the sake of the economy it never happens. A global recession helps no one. A full meltdown in the UK wouldn't be helpful to trading with the rest of the world. Lets hope when we get out of Europe we start manufacturing again in this country as China is getting more expensive home made is becoming more viable again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whatmuff Posted October 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 Great stuff Edd, couldn't agree more. This happened before the great recession back in 1929 and then 12 years of depression followed. People were introduced to credit and buy now pay later schemes, everyone had new appliances and cars, even the stock market allowed people to margin trade that allowed them to only put 10% on a trade and the brokers would fund the 90%!! Unfortunately the stock market is filled with debt and borrowed money and so is the property market. I used to be a builder and these new build homes are worth no where near the value printed on them, they are cheap and will not last. Yet our current population is compelled to be on "the property ladder" why?? Because that's all I hear these days? And not one of my friends can give me an explanation as to their job security, interest rates, forecast interest rates, normalised rates and REAL AFFORDABILITY! They just search for the lowest mortgage and get what ever they can out. House prices are directly linked to interest rates, and that's the reason why we have sky high prices as rates are near 0 and borrowing has never been cheaper. They can't really go any lower (unless negative of course, but that won't work while we have cash) so the property market is stagnating and people have no more money to spend. I really don't think this will be a normal recession, I think we are on a massive global issue and possibly dare I say it WW3 territory. Unless the powers that be manage to come up with a new reset solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
team tractor Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 50 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said: Who are you blaming? Jaguar( cars) . The Jag as it’s known locally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbird Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 (edited) I have always thought my life tried to save hard, we saved to not have a mortgage gone through life being to careful, but now I look back & think if we right, as every day now you read that in your old age if you have money you are going to have to fund your care, if you own a house the government will make you sell to fund your care they are looking at means testing state pension. Edited October 11, 2018 by blackbird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figgy Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 (edited) When people talk of a financial reset what exactly are they thinking the Government can or will do? As for means testing pensions how can they think folks will pay into a government NI scheme for no return. Edited October 11, 2018 by figgy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpringDon Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 Reset covers a number of measures but is generally a currency reissue. But it could include savings confiscation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MirokuMK70 Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 I hope its not going to happen as we're in the process of buying a new house that needs full refurb and extension over next 2 years... however, it appears the banks havent learned much from last time... When we went to to the bank to arrange our desired 130k mortgage, we were told that they would have been prepared to lend us over 400k!!! I wouldn't sleep at night... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbird Posted October 11, 2018 Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, figgy said: When people talk of a financial reset what exactly are they thinking the Government can or will do? As for means testing pensions how can they think folks will pay into a government NI scheme for no return. Only a few years ago you could get state pension at 65 now it’s 67 for younger people it looks more like 70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whatmuff Posted October 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, figgy said: When people talk of a financial reset what exactly are they thinking the Government can or will do? As for means testing pensions how can they think folks will pay into a government NI scheme for no return. As Springdon covered it could include a currency reissue, the next will be digital/crypto type and I think most probably gold or silver backed. If you take a look at what JP Morgan had been up too with regards too with silver hoarding. Russia and China have also been hoarding the precious metals and with the Gold backed Yuan in China it's starting to break the US dollar. Go back a few years and you may remember companies that were sweeping the country offering a cash for gold service? Well they did in the US and it went across the states. Where did that gold go? If a currency is back by gold then it has value, unlike the paper money system in place at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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