Coronavirus (Covid-19) Is this it?

[ditchman]

1 hour ago, Lord Geordie said:

The diesel in your blood stream will kill off any earth born virus! 
 

besides, I am sure if fat Sarah offered you mouth to mouth, the shock alone would see you back on your feet, and running for your bunker, I mean shed! 

sarah is nowhere to be seen.............as i said before she was last seen climbing into the back of an old transit van full of mongolian throat singers.........

[islandgun]

2 hours ago, Retsdon said:

On February 28th, Italy had 328 cases and 3 deaths .Today's latest figures are 9,172 cases and 463 deaths and the rate of increase on the graph is still pointed due north. The UK, on an almost carbon copy of trajectory, currently has 326 cases and 5 deaths. In other words, the UK is less than a fortnight behind Italy. Yet the advice from the government is still to simply wash your hands and carry on as normal. Highly, highly, irresponsible imho.

It's not like Italy is a unique case. Depending on the transmissability of the disease, absent timely measures, these epidemics will follow a mathematical progression of development.

Here  in Saudi, whilst there are probably more, there are only 20 reported cases. And yet the government has looked over the water at Iran and decided that they don't want to end up in the same boat. Consequently the schools are closed, public gatherings are banned, the shrines at Mecca and Medinah are closed, etc etc. Land borders are closed too. Will it work? Who knows, but at least the government is proactively trying to avert the inevitable public health disaster in the absence of any such measures.

It's quite shocking because I never, ever thought I'd see the day when a Saudi government was more responsible  and showed more concern for its population that did the government in Westminster. 

But perhaps it's not cynicism on the British government's part. Perhaps its like a rather painful and one-sided conversation I had with my father many years ago when I was about 17. He was driving and talking, and I was sitting next to him and listening, and we were on our way to view the wreckage of my mother's car which I'd put through a hedge the previous evening. He was normally a pretty tolerant man, but he was well wound round the axle this time, chiefly because the car hadn't been long back from the repair shop following a previous encounter with the wall of a pub. He was saying plenty, but one thing I still remember was '..there are three kinds of people in the world. There are intelligent people and they learn from other people's mistakes. Then you have most normal people who learn from their own mistakes. And then you have the cretinous bloody fools who will never learn!!!

Cynicism or stupidity. Not much of a choice really.

 

 

 

I think your saying restrict, close down and prepare for the worst.. makes perfect sense to me

I will also remember your dads wisdom..👍

[semi-auto]

I can only agree with Retsdon. Just what is the Government waiting for? I firmly believe that the powers that be are waiting for the number of cases to hit a particular trigger figure (perhaps 1000) and then, and only then, will they act. Of course, by then it will be too late - a matter of closing the stable door!  I fully expect, within the next fortnight, to see a ban on large gatherings, sporting events behind closed doors and closed schools, not to mention travel bans. Should they not be proactive rather than reactive? I think, in this case they are more driven by the economic consequences rather than people's health.

[JohnfromUK]

I live within the 'catchment area' of Cheltenham - where for anyone not into their racing - has it's biggest annual meet starting today and running for the rest of the week.  As happens every year, all the local hotels, B&Bs etc. for miles around are booked up and full of racegoers, including all of the small towns, villages etc within a wide radius.   Attendance over the festival expected to be circa 250,000 (probably 100,000 individual people as many go on more than one day).  Cheltenham already has a confirmed case - which was 'caught in the UK', so it is reasonable to assume that the virus is actively around in the area.

It will be interesting to see what transpires over the next few weeks.  Lots of 'used pound notes' changing hands and shaking hands on deals etc.  I strongly expect that Cheltenham is being used as an 'experiment' to see how big events pass the virus on (or otherwise).  The organisers apparently have 'additional handwashing measures' in place.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Just received this;

 

UK Virus ALERT

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “****** Off” to “Let's Get the ******.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

The Russians have said “Its not us”

[loriusgarrulus]

[Teal]

I don't believe a Government can contain it, and I certainly don't believe the figures from China. Yet the media are trotting them out dogmatically. Holding onto Chinese propaganda as fact for how to deal with it. I think that this will kill millions of people, and will continue its spread around the world. If you look at how diverse it has spread, and how infectious it apparently is, by the time any government has closed the doors it is far too late.

I also don't think it is viable to have countries on semi-permanent lockdown. This virus is going to rumble on for many months, and the economic damage would be long lasting. Do you shut things down everytime a case appears? It is like after the tube bombings, when people (including media selected "experts" said there should be metal scanners at each tube station and they would be prepared to wait on their travel each day. They are detached from reality. A large number of people will become infected, and a small number of those infected people will die. That's the reality.

There is very little that can be done other than to somewhat slow the transmission, which will help prevent systems becoming overloaded. But stopping it spreading, no chance. Look at the cruise ships in lock down, they are all getting it. Everyone is naive to this, and so it is going to spread exponentially as per graphs above.

[Smokersmith]

Thank TC … nice to lighten the mood a little.

Here in our work environment, we've upped our control measures to significantly beyond what the UK Govt are saying.

Seems sensible.

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

31 minutes ago, Smokersmith said:

Thank TC … nice to lighten the mood a little.

Here in our work environment, we've upped our control measures to significantly beyond what the UK Govt are saying.

Seems sensible.

Where I "work" all of the lavatories have been emblazoned with helpful posters to remind people to wash their hands properly and often.

[SpringDon]

What actual evidence is there that the reduction in infection rates is “Chinese propaganda”? Or is the old, they eat bats so you can’t believe them line.

[islandgun]

49 minutes ago, Teal said:

I don't believe a Government can contain it, and I certainly don't believe the figures from China. Yet the media are trotting them out dogmatically. Holding onto Chinese propaganda as fact for how to deal with it. I think that this will kill millions of people, and will continue its spread around the world. If you look at how diverse it has spread, and how infectious it apparently is, by the time any government has closed the doors it is far too late.

I also don't think it is viable to have countries on semi-permanent lockdown. This virus is going to rumble on for many months, and the economic damage would be long lasting. Do you shut things down everytime a case appears? It is like after the tube bombings, when people (including media selected "experts" said there should be metal scanners at each tube station and they would be prepared to wait on their travel each day. They are detached from reality. A large number of people will become infected, and a small number of those infected people will die. That's the reality.

There is very little that can be done other than to somewhat slow the transmission, which will help prevent systems becoming overloaded. But stopping it spreading, no chance. Look at the cruise ships in lock down, they are all getting it. Everyone is naive to this, and so it is going to spread exponentially as per graphs above.

I would be happy if it were slowed down

[Retsdon]

1 hour ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Just received this;

 

UK Virus ALERT

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “****** Off” to “Let's Get the ******.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

The Russians have said “Its not us”

Of course, it's a joke until you or someone you love is dying of asphyxiation because the health service has been completely overwhelmed and there are no critical care beds available. Then it becomes no laughing matter at all.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

Good grief, take it in the spirit it was intended, like SmokerSmith did!

[Teal]

31 minutes ago, SpringDon said:

What actual evidence is there that the reduction in infection rates is “Chinese propaganda”? Or is the old, they eat bats so you can’t believe them line.

Is that a line?

A lot of what the Chinese Government says is for propaganda purposes, either for domestic or intentional consumption. That is a fact. Look at what they did at the start of the outbreak, suppression and denial. Silencing of anyone who spoke out. Then when things get hot, the very top of their government stepped in to take "firm action", with a very unhappy domestic situation. Things got very hot and people very critical. They quarantine big areas - but by this time the coronavirus is popping up all over the world, so of course it is also endemic in all areas of China, which has far greater movement domestically than internationally. It also has areas of serious high population density. Perfect for transmission.

They get medical staff to perform dances for patients: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZcpYSkcYPM .  If this serves any other purpose than domestic propaganda I do not know.

Then magically, it works! 

Yesterday: "Outside of Wuhan, the spread has effectively stopped, according to the official figures. All but one of the 99 new cases reported on Saturday were in Wuhan or were people who had travelled to China from abroad."

Oh yes - so China has it completely sorted-  but and the blame for infections now lies on the international community. Amazing that deflection, and the credit to their leaders for stamping this out! And also amazing that the world media is taking these figures in as credible. They are absolutely not.

I have an undergraduate degree in Biology, and we did cover epidemiology. Anyone who wants to believe what the Chinese government is saying on this is only deluding themselves. Will we ever get the true figures from China - highly unlikely. Their government continually fake statistics. But I would bet my house that these numbers that they are feeding out are absolute fantasy.

 

[Teal]

31 minutes ago, islandgun said:

I would be happy if it were slowed down

So would everyone. But at what cost would you be prepared to pay.

[Jaymo]

2 hours ago, Smokersmith said:

Thank TC … nice to lighten the mood a little.

Here in our work environment, we've upped our control measures to significantly beyond what the UK Govt are saying.

Seems sensible.

 

Aren’t you lucky, we’re still being sent to Italy !!!!

[bruno22rf]

Might be worth mentioning to some of our more "mature" members that quite a few Air Purifiers are capable of killing Flu viruses in the home - about £80 gets you a machine that will treat a room up to 75 sqm.

[islandgun]

41 minutes ago, Teal said:

So would everyone. But at what cost would you be prepared to pay.

Loss of freedom = travel restriction, large gatherings, rationing !

[SpringDon]

1 hour ago, Teal said:

<snip>

I have an undergraduate degree in Biology, and we did cover epidemiology. Anyone who wants to believe what the Chinese government is saying on this is only deluding themselves. Will we ever get the true figures from China - highly unlikely. Their government continually fake statistics. But I would bet my house that these numbers that they are feeding out are absolute fantasy.

 

So are you saying the recent WHO delegation, that praised the Chinese actions and stated that they were starting to get the outbreak under control, are as deluded as me?

[old'un]

15 minutes ago, islandgun said:

Loss of freedom = travel restriction, large gatherings, rationing !

Think you are living in one of the safest places at the minute, if it does start to get a bit close you can always pull the drawbridge up.

Get the spare bedroom ready Steve.

[islandgun]

3 minutes ago, old'un said:

Think you are living in one of the safest places at the minute, if it does start to get a bit close you can always pull the drawbridge up.

Get the spare bedroom ready Steve.

Ha ha, Happily the spare bedrooms full of toilet roll..😉

[Retsdon]

1 hour ago, Teal said:

There is very little that can be done other than to somewhat slow the transmission,

But that's the key - as illustrated by this diagram. The reason that the death rate in Wuhan was so much higher than the rest of China was because the health services became overwhelmed by the numbers. People who could have been saved were dying in their hundreds through lack of critical care.  At the moment Boris and Co seem happy to take the pink route. 

Well, we'll see how that works out when the mess hits the fan. 

[Teal]

2 hours ago, SpringDon said:

So are you saying the recent WHO delegation, that praised the Chinese actions and stated that they were starting to get the outbreak under control, are as deluded as me?

I'm just saying the Chinese stats are fabricated. It's completely in their interest to put out false statistics. I think what China has done is remarkable in terms of logistics and state control, as a 'feat' it would be easy for the WHO to praise that. I don't think many other countries could do that. Whether it's a good thing the state has such autocratic control is a different matter. But if you look at how this has spread internationally, and then think that by locking down some areas within China they have solved it, I just don't believe it.

@Retsdon the point I was making if you had not just quoted half a sentence out of context, was in response to why I believe that the Chinese figures are fabricated. I have no issues with your graph, or the merits of slowing down transmission. Although there is an issue of cost, and like it or not, there is an economic argument as the driving factor. Rather than saving lives. And that is the truth. It is an socio-economic trade-off. People are going to die. No-one likes this, but it is how the world works. So they will delay implementation until as long as they feel they can.

[Scully]

1 hour ago, Retsdon said:

But that's the key - as illustrated by this diagram. The reason that the death rate in Wuhan was so much higher than the rest of China was because the health services became overwhelmed by the numbers. People who could have been saved were dying in their hundreds through lack of critical care.  At the moment Boris and Co seem happy to take the pink route. 

Well, we'll see how that works out when the mess hits the fan. 

You must be great craic on a night out! 😳

[Retsdon]

2 minutes ago, Teal said:

Although there is an issue of cost, and like it or not, there is an economic argument as the driving factor. Rather than saving some lives. And that is the truth. It is a trade-off

The thing is, you're going to get the cost either way. Allowing a massive epidemic with a higher death rate (in Wuhan it was running at over 10% for a while) to develop unchecked isn't going to save money in the long run. Even if you don't organize them to do it people will simply stop either going out or spending money and your economy is going to take a massive hit - or you'll have revolution on the streets. It's swings and roundabouts. There are no good economic outcomes.

But we'll see. My reading is that the government has made the decision to hope for the best and try and blag their way through this. But if they were paying attention, they'd have known that this is what the Italians tried to do initially and in the end they have been forced to adopt measures that would have been far more effective if taken 2 weeks earlier.  Stupid really, because in the final analysis  there's not a government in the civilized world that can deliberately and cynically have large chunks of its population dying for lack of medical care just to save money. It's a politically untenable position  - so taking emergency measures isn't an optional luxury, it's a political necessity that will become unavoidable in due course. 

But it's a pity that a lot of people are going to have to die before these people confront the obvious.