Future house prices

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, Munzy said:

House prices have been spot-on forever. A house, like anything else, is worth what someone is willing and able to pay. Every single house that ever sold was priced perfectly.

It's when you get the big jumps I don't buy, you expect prices to go up and down, people always say a house is worth what someone will pay, but it's a lot easier for those on the ladder, I wouldn't want to be starting out from scratch these days. 

[amateur]

50 minutes ago, Mice! said:

It's when you get the big jumps I don't buy, you expect prices to go up and down, people always say a house is worth what someone will pay, but it's a lot easier for those on the ladder, I wouldn't want to be starting out from scratch these days. 

I think back to 1974/5 when we had just married and spent a year in Bradford.

Before we left, you could buy a suburban semi for less than £5k. When we returned, there was nothing worth having under £10k, and in fact our first house cost £13k.

Fortunately we were both able to obtain well paid jobs in London - then my wife fell pregnant, but that is another story!

[loriusgarrulus]

I remember our first house after living in a unfurnished rented flat. It was a new build 2 bedroom semi in 1978. We had saved the deposit only when we paid a deposit on a mud plot with wooden pegs in. We were still saving for the legal bill as it was being built. We paid the deposit for it when it was priced at £8500. House prices started to rocket and our solicitor warned us to be prompt on any paperwork as the builders could sell our house for a lot more if we didn't  proceed. We moved to a larger, older 3 bed semi in 1981 and sold the 2 bed semi for £16000. It sounds a pittance compared to todays prices, but my salary at the time was about £1400 a year and my ex was on slightly more.

[udderlyoffroad]

On 12/04/2020 at 13:49, mel b3 said:

You paint such a wonderful picture of Bristol 😅. 

Be patient,  you'll get your few acres . I'm quite the opposite with my land , I'll invite anybody in for a look 😆

Yep, it's an untopia alright.  If you like speed and weed that is.  Actually, having recently acquired a mutt, and being on my one (ahem) daily walk in the sunshine, it's not soo bad.  I'm still relocating somewhere better soon as I can though.  Don't need a gamekeeper do you?  I could even change my name to 'Mellors'

 

On 12/04/2020 at 15:44, oowee said:

Dont do it. We country folk dont need any more city dwellers out here.   I love Bristol but have mostly missed the drug addled cack-holes 😂 I suspect that even these are on the rise given the way prices have moved here.

The best way to pay for houses is to get a decent rate of inflation so the real value of your mortgage is reduced. 

I always wanted a lage garden till I had to cut the grass. Main mower is in the workshop which has closed. Its taking me about 18 hours a week to cut, with just the HRX 😞 Its killing me.

 

I resemble that remark Grant!  I'm a country boy, who moved to the city where the streets where paved with gold and I needed the money....

 

[mel b3]

42 minutes ago, udderlyoffroad said:

Yep, it's an untopia alright.  If you like speed and weed that is.  Actually, having recently acquired a mutt, and being on my one (ahem) daily walk in the sunshine, it's not soo bad.  I'm still relocating somewhere better soon as I can though.  Don't need a gamekeeper do you?  I could even change my name to 'Mellors'

 

 

i havent been down there for a while , but it always seemed quite a nice place , then again , im from tipton , so everywhere looks nice.

my land is as big as a postage stamp , we could probably manage driven mouse .

[oowee]

2 hours ago, mel b3 said:

i havent been down there for a while , but it always seemed quite a nice place , then again , im from tipton , so everywhere looks nice.

my land is as big as a postage stamp , we could probably manage driven mouse .

In the past my work covered Tipton and I rememeber one of my first jobs, evicting gypsys from Weddel Wynd and managing an industrial estate at Princess End. I went back to work there some years later and was revisited by a widower who caimed my debt collection work had led to the death of his wife . Another chap that had excavated the basement of his terraced house to keep lions from his circus days, turning up at the Town Hall to fight eviction. Desperate Dan Cow pie at Mad Orourkes. 

The place was / is,  like no where else, but honest people non the less.

 

[fern01]

 

This guy talks a lot of sense

 

https://youtu.be/HlUyCuYGj-A

[mel b3]

31 minutes ago, oowee said:

In the past my work covered Tipton and I rememeber one of my first jobs, evicting gypsys from Weddel Wynd and managing an industrial estate at Princess End. I went back to work there some years later and was revisited by a widower who caimed my debt collection work had led to the death of his wife . Another chap that had excavated the basement of his terraced house to keep lions from his circus days, turning up at the Town Hall to fight eviction. Desperate Dan Cow pie at Mad Orourkes. 

The place was / is,  like no where else, but honest people non the less.

 

tipton is an acquired taste .  

i had an old boss , that became a friend(and he could be a right hard faced old screw) . hed managed businesses all around the world , and he said that the black country was the only place where none of the staff were scared of him , and that every one of them looked you straight in the eye , he also said that it was an easy place to run , because everyone was a grafter , and he soon knew if he was getting things wrong , because theyre xxxxxxx quick in telling you .

[Teal]

On 12/04/2020 at 15:59, Mungler said:

Indeed, time is the answer. Who wouldn’t go back in time and buy and keep their first house / property? In reality most people don’t get to keep hold of houses because they need the equity for the next move / bump up the ladder.

As has been said, property prices are a heady mix of supply, demand, interest rates, the availability of borrowing and employment. 

Over time, demand will outstrip supply, unless a pandemic or World war irons out a large (and diverse chunk of population). Everything else can change - interest rates, availability of borrowing and employment.

The last RICS stats I saw said we needed to be building 350,000 units a year to keep pace with demand and we we’re looking at circa 150,000 being built with a year on year shortage in the hundreds of thousands. 

Where we currently are will be a blip. The old money / those will access to borrowing will start hoovering up repos and cheap low maintenance renters. We will blink, 10 years will go by and as we do now we’ll be saying we wish we bought back in 2008. People always need somewhere to live. 
 

This is correct. I think people are forgetting the Govts of the world 'saved' the economy in 2008. By printing money and spending on a massive scale. It's not capitalism, and is a completely broken system, but its all they know.

They are doing the same now on a bigger scale. In the immediate term cash is what you want but we're not far away from seeing it's value eroded. Any blip in property or other genuine assets is temporary. Longer term we're all getting poorer. Stock market is a joke, it's only where it is because America has ploughed in trillions. For now the central banks have ammunition, but when that runs low or if inflation starts running away from them, that's when the world ends! 

[geordieh]

On 12/04/2020 at 05:05, mel b3 said:

Am I the only one that doesn't give a rats bum what my house is worth ?.

I'll just be happy if the family and me make it through ,  and we still have a roof over our heads👍.

I'm with you Mel

[fern01]

On 10/04/2020 at 22:03, Mungler said:

I had a dream 2 nights ago that our Bank went bust. We’re still an old fashioned unlimited liability partnership - it’s amazing what the sub conscious worries about.

Was it Santander?  If so your dream could become reality

4 hours ago, geordieh said:

I'm with you Mel

+1  It only matters if you want to sell it

[fern01]

On 12/04/2020 at 12:48, buze said:

There might be a surplus of buyers as well soon enough. When all the expats dump their property in Spain/Portugal/France to try to move back here after having been stuck away from the home country in sometime, medical deserts...

Who will they sell them to?

[Vince Green]

2 hours ago, fern01 said:

Who will they sell them to?

They couldn't sell them before all this started, certainly in Spain the property market had ground to a halt some time back. A lot of people out there would be glad to come back if they could.

[blackbird]

5 hours ago, fern01 said:

Was it Santander?  If so your dream could become reality

+1  It only matters if you want to sell it

fern01 Hit the nail right on the head (it only matters if you want to sell it) 

[Walker570]

On 11/04/2020 at 23:17, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, a lot of us remember the crash in the early 1980s that took years to recover, a lot of people went in negative equity, i do hope it will not be the same in 2020 more so with what the UK citizens are going through with this epidemic  

Was that the early 90s ?  We were very lucky indeed as we had our house for sale in September 1989 and was moving here to my late fathers place.  The prices of houses in the 80s rose at a stupid rate each year and the asking price of ours was almost three times what we paid for it four years earlier.  We sold it the first week in November and eight weeks later 1st January 1990 it had dropped to below half that figure and the young builder who purchased it took 10yrs to get back the value.  I'm guessing but I bet that property was in the region of eight hundred thousand just prior to the lockdown.  I tell this story just to point out how house prices can rise and fall dramatically in just a relatively short space of time.  A house is still a good investment.

[WalkedUp]

It matters if you want or need to sell and have a large mortgage. If all house prices drop or rise in sync and you have a decent LTV you are well insulated. If you are just starting out with a large LTV then with a drop you may be in negative equity and will not be able to move. 
 

We are lucky that we have downsized already, just remortgaging this week to wipe the development loans for building the house and so our monthly outgoings on house will drop by 70% - a nice breathing space after two tight years. Our mortgage is still less than 40% so it doesn’t matter that we need to move in 5 years. My sister is just buying a £800,000 house (high value here) with a 90% LTV. They had the mortgage in principal from before this all hit but I’ve been trying to advise her to drop out of it. They are moving here from a big city 40 miles away and her husband is keeping his job there, I am not sure it will work out easily and so they need to keep agile. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by WalkedUp

[oldypigeonpopper]

1 minute ago, Walker570 said:

Was that the early 90s ?  We were very lucky indeed as we had our house for sale in September 1989 and was moving here to my late fathers place.  The prices of houses in the 80s rose at a stupid rate each year and the asking price of ours was almost three times what we paid for it four years earlier.  We sold it the first week in November and eight weeks later 1st January 1990 it had dropped to below half that figure and the young builder who purchased it took 10yrs to get back the value.  I'm guessing but I bet that property was in the region of eight hundred thousand just prior to the lockdown.  I tell this story just to point out how house prices can rise and fall dramatically in just a relatively short space of time.  A house is still a good investment.

hello, ah you maybe right, early 90s,

[Walker570]

On 12/04/2020 at 05:05, mel b3 said:

Am I the only one that doesn't give a rats bum what my house is worth ?.

I'll just be happy if the family and me make it through ,  and we still have a roof over our heads👍.

100% that is the most important thing.   The 1980s saw folks buying properties on a deposit two years before the footings went in.  I had a colleague in the police force who would put down such a deposit, move after 2yrs (no tax) then straight away look at another development in the area and put down a deposit on another which at that stage was just lines on a plan. Two years he would move again and do the same. Consquently prices of homes went up at an alarming rate through the 80s and then the subsequent crash in December 1989.  There where some winners (thankfully) but I knew of many losers who struggled for a while with negative equity.

[Mungler]

19 hours ago, Teal said:

This is correct. I think people are forgetting the Govts of the world 'saved' the economy in 2008. By printing money and spending on a massive scale. It's not capitalism, and is a completely broken system, but its all they know.

They are doing the same now on a bigger scale. In the immediate term cash is what you want but we're not far away from seeing it's value eroded. Any blip in property or other genuine assets is temporary. Longer term we're all getting poorer. Stock market is a joke, it's only where it is because America has ploughed in trillions. For now the central banks have ammunition, but when that runs low or if inflation starts running away from them, that's when the world ends! 

Yes, inflation and interest rates is where the world ends.

It’s been a while since I sat in an economics lecture, but is there a tried and tested way to combat inflation other than increasing interest rates?

I still can’t get over interest rates - I’ve just re-fixed a buy to let with Virgin money, £260k over 5 years interest only at £390 a month. That’s £23k to borrow 1/4 of a million (in round numbers) over 5 years.

To my mind, real world inflation runs higher than that. As has been said on here - it’s all about depreciating off the cost (or rather the value) of the money over years.

[AVB]

21 hours ago, Mungler said:

Yes, inflation and interest rates is where the world ends.

It’s been a while since I sat in an economics lecture, but is there a tried and tested way to combat inflation other than increasing interest rates?

I still can’t get over interest rates - I’ve just re-fixed a buy to let with Virgin money, £260k over 5 years interest only at £390 a month. That’s £23k to borrow 1/4 of a million (in round numbers) over 5 years.

To my mind, real world inflation runs higher than that. As has been said on here - it’s all about depreciating off the cost (or rather the value) of the money over years.

Raising interest rates is the least invasive way. Inflation is caused by people spending so you need to reduce peoples spending power. The other ways of doing it are restricting wage increases, increasing taxes or in extremes restricting the supply of credit.