flattening the curve

[peck]

Watching the daily briefing  over the last few weeks and they keep on about flattening the curve. When the curve of deaths was at it highest (about 800 day) and wards were full of virus cases and ventilators in short supply, The curve then started very to slowly come down and reporters are asking when can restrictions be lifted, what will happen if this is done  is that we will have another rise in the curve so what do we do? do we reintroduce restrictions?.

 The experts said that it could infect 80% of the population, at the rate of 20,000 per month which could very easily happen it would take years for us to get control. But with restrictions lifted it could be 50,000 or even easily 100,000 per month. Where are all the ventilators and ppe going to come from then? the whole system could very easily turn into absolute chaos, tens of thousands of sufferers all needing treatment, will they just sit back and accept it or will they be out and about infecting more and more people.

I KNOW IT SOUNDS A BIT DOOM AND GLOOM BUT IF WE LIFT RESTRICTIONS TOO SOON THAT'S WHAT WILL HAPPEN.

  

Edited April 28, 2020 by peck

[clangerman]

let’s see to slow to close our borders to slow to lock down lack of ppe and ventilators yep lifting restrictions to soon is obviously the next fatal mistake waiting to happen madness! 

[peck]

Uk population is 66.6 million, 80% is very roughly 50 million. So there are 50 million possible cases of corona virus waiting to happen. It all depends on the shape of that curve as to whether we can control it or not. Once that curve starts rising and rising we are in big trouble.

[henry d]

Chill pill.

It's not just flattening the curve, it has to be seen to be dropping not just flattening?

9 minutes ago, clangerman said:

let’s see to slow to close our borders to slow to lock down lack of ppe and ventilators yep lifting restrictions to soon is obviously the next fatal mistake waiting to happen madness! 

What?

[toontastic]

1 hour ago, clangerman said:

let’s see to slow to close our borders to slow to lock down lack of ppe and ventilators yep lifting restrictions to soon is obviously the next fatal mistake waiting to happen madness! 

Of course every other country got it spot on. Italy, Spain, Belgium have death rates much higher than ours. Everyone has been trying to source PPE and ventilators not just us. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by toontastic

[Retsdon]

36 minutes ago, toontastic said:

Italy, Spain, Belgium have death rates much higher than ours.

Hmmm. Belgium's death rate is high because they count every single death in which simply suspected Covid-19 is any kind of a factor  - not necessarily the main cause - as a Covid death. And there's the problem with the stats. Every country measures  things differently. The more you test - they more cases you'll find. The wider your classification of a covid death - the more coovid deaths you'll have. In the future when the dust has settled the difference between average deaths per month over a 5 year period compared to 2020 will probably be the only half accurate way to measure intra country differences of death rate. At the moment it's all apples v oranges stuff.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Retsdon

[toontastic]

1 minute ago, Retsdon said:

Hmmm. Belgium's death rate is high because they count every single death in which simply suspected Covid-19 is any kind of a factor  - not necessarily the main cause - as a Covid death. And there's the problem with the stats. Every country measures  things differently. The more you test - they more cases you'll find. The wider your classification of a covid death - the more coovid deaths you'll have. In the future when the dust has settled the difference between average deaths per month over a 5 year period compared to 2020 will probably be the only half accurate way to measure intra country differences of death rate. At the moment it's all apples v oranges stuff.

The stats are indeed very misleading, I have read that Germany only count death as covid related when there are no other symptoms at all. 

[Mighty Ruler]

As Germany is so often held up as an example of how to get it right, I was surprised to see German doctors staging a naked protest to make the point that they may as well be naked as to work without PPE

[Cawdor118]

Statistics and analytics are my thing, i love it. But unless you have defined standards, its almost pointless. Its arbitrary. 

[lancer425]

1 minute ago, toontastic said:

The stats are indeed very misleading, I have read that Germany only count death as covid related when there are no other symptoms at all. 

I am of the opinion that when all the dust settles surrounding this virus, and when and even if we can get any realistic views on how many really did die of covid 19, we might see remarkably similar results.

 And that the results that do stand out will be steered by population densities and social factors rather than government policies.

 Chinas figures looked low. But WHY. ?

1 Was it because a lock down there means a lock down. full stop unlike here or most other countries which depend on the populations compliance.

OR 2.  Did china know how to deal with this virus because they made it.

3. Did china just lie because they can.

4 is it that china simply do not know the true death rate.

The last one is possible, in fact the uk and other countries might never know the real death rates to this. The 1918 pandemic , threw up far from accurate data, we would expect 100 years latter we could do a much more accurate assessment of this viruses toll. But can we. ?

 

[stumfelter]

16 minutes ago, Mighty Ruler said:

As Germany is so often held up as an example of how to get it right, I was surprised to see German doctors staging a naked protest to make the point that they may as well be naked as to work without PPE

Any links?

[henry d]

9 minutes ago, lancer425 said:

OR 2.  Did china know how to deal with this virus because they made

How many times...how many?

[Jim Neal]

Quote

Any links?

www.wurst-und-beaver.de

Edited April 28, 2020 by Jim Neal

[lancer425]

2 minutes ago, henry d said:

How many times...how many?

That again we don’t know. Will we ever know. ?

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, clangerman said:

let’s see to slow to close our borders to slow to lock down lack of ppe and ventilators yep lifting restrictions to soon is obviously the next fatal mistake waiting to happen madness! 

Has there been any cases of there not being available ventilators? According to the briefing today we are sending them to other countries that need them.

Everyone in the world wants the ppe. 

They messed up not locking down sooner because they tried treating people like they were intelligent.

[toontastic]

9 hours ago, Mighty Ruler said:

As Germany is so often held up as an example of how to get it right, I was surprised to see German doctors staging a naked protest to make the point that they may as well be naked as to work without PPE

I've just seen in on the news, it does appear that all countries have had the same problems with supplies of PPE. 

[oldypigeonpopper]

hello, not sure if right but i heard the ventilators that Dyson was making are now not required by the Government, so what will he do with a warehouse full of these ventilators ?

[Old farrier]

6 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, not sure if right but i heard the ventilators that Dyson was making are now not required by the Government, so what will he do with a warehouse full of these ventilators ?

Sell them to the next country that is short of them 

[henry d]

9 hours ago, lancer425 said:

That again we don’t know. Will we ever know. ?

Here you go

[TIGHTCHOKE]

40 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, not sure if right but i heard the ventilators that Dyson was making are now not required by the Government, so what will he do with a warehouse full of these ventilators ?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-dysons-20m-ventilator-no-longer-required-by-the-government-11978474

JD is happy they are not required, I suspect they will be paid for though.

[Mice!]

10 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-dysons-20m-ventilator-no-longer-required-by-the-government-11978474

JD is happy they are not required, I suspect they will be paid for though.

Brilliant that we don't need them, great advertising for Dyson showing what they can do, I'm sure they will prosper from this and rightly so.

[oldypigeonpopper]

hello, i wonder why the Government think these ventilators are not required when they a building more Nightingale hospitals, and did we not hear NHS hospitals state we do not have enough ventilators? is it not better to have more not less

[TIGHTCHOKE]

3 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, i wonder why the Government think these ventilators are not required when they a building more Nightingale hospitals, and did we not hear NHS hospitals state we do not have enough ventilators? is it not better to have more not less

The country and its wonderful NHS have enough capacity because the curve has been flattened.

13 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Brilliant that we don't need them, great advertising for Dyson showing what they can do, I'm sure they will prosper from this and rightly so.

Yes and there will be lots of other firms that have done their bit too.

[TRINITY]

10 hours ago, Mighty Ruler said:

As Germany is so often held up as an example of how to get it right, I was surprised to see German doctors staging a naked protest to make the point that they may as well be naked as to work without PPE

Not surprised in the slightest, plenty od beaches around the world where you see naked germans, they cant wait to flash their tackle.

[udderlyoffroad]

19 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

The country and its wonderful NHS have enough capacity because the curve has been flattened.

Even the NHS wouldn't be so stupid as to accept ventilators that still don't have regulatory approval. 

We will have to agree to differ on the NHS being wonderful.  The staff at the front end, 99.9% awesome.  The rest of the organisation?  not so much

Do you describe Germany's health care system as 'wonderful'?  They're doing far better than the UK, even if the figures in Germany are measured differently.