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Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.


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On 16/07/2022 at 11:23, Stonepark said:

That was the Neocons plan for the Russian economy from the start and it ain't happening.

Russia is an exporting nation, there is nothing the West has it either does not produce itself or it cannot get from China, India or another non western aligned country. China, India, african countries etc are never going to accept holding their population in poverty to satisfy the Wests current mental illness believing that they should dictate to the rest of the planet and as such are going to be buying Russian gas, oil, fertiliser, minerals, finsihed goods, arms etc no matter what Europe and the USA does.

Given China, India and sub saharan africa alone are 3.5 billion people plus, Russia is literally laughing all the way to the bank.

If you haven't noticed, Biden is currently on a begging tour of the Middle East trying to get more oil and LNG production to try and replace that which is now "sanctioned" and unavailable to the West.

 

On the Army, Russia has committed something like 10% of its military to this action, nearly all professional trained soldiers and all being rotated in and out of the front lines on a nearly daily basis to minimise PTSD. They are grinding away at the Ukranian army who are retreating West over virtually the whole front line. Even with every NATO country shipping what "spare" arms they can, Ukraine cannot match the combat intensity the Russians are keeping up and as such Ukraine is running out of professional manpower, arms and ammunition and are at some point going to fold, no matter what Zelensky wishes.

 

On 16/07/2022 at 12:25, Stonepark said:

taken just prior to the revolution/coup....

https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/elektoralnye_nastroeniya_grazhdan_oktyabr_2013.html

The above survey included all of Ukraine with no evidence of bias as no one had lost people, territory or face until that point.  The 2017 survey Brookings refer to which is post the secession of the Dombass and Crimea and appears slanted to give certain results. Lies, Dam Lies and statistics comes to mind......., there is not 57% of the people in the Donbass or Crimea or the other predominantly russian supporting areas expressing a cold or very cold attitude to Russia.....

The survey clearly shows that the 2010 elected president Yankovych would be reelected and he campaigned on a Russian re-alignment, as against the previous President who was Pro EU and was jailed for corruption. Yanukovych was not following the majority of the Western Ukranians (including Kiev) (Pro EU, Pro WEF) wishes, but he was pleasing the Eastern ukrainians from where he came from and who wish to be closer to Russia and who held the democratic majority at the time.

Saying Putin didn't need to invade is like saying you would stand aside and let someone attack and rape your wife and and then only take action on the perpetrator afterwards as until that point he hadn't done it yet, even though he had walked right up to you brandishing a knife and shouting he was going to do it.

Ukraine has spent the last 8 years arming itself and training soldiers to take back the scecceded regions of the Donbass and potentially Crimea. Russia has for 8 years been clearly telling them to cease and desist, and uphold the Minsk agreement which Ukraine had agreed to, whilst the West has been encouraging them onwards towards a fight.

Any 'delusions' the conflict would be over are just that, delusions - Ukraine is not willing to give up the seceeded regions and as such all Putin has done is instead of the West supporting Ukrainans slaughtering the Russian supporting Ukrainians, he has made it an "even" fight and is mainly keeping civilians out of the line of fire.

The bottom line is that unless Zelensky and the undemocratically elected "Ukranian" government (they never included Crimea or the Donbass since 2012 in elections) opt for a ceasefire and had either uphold the Minsk agreement or abdicate and held open and honest free elections for all of Ukraine (including the Donbass and Crimea) the war continue until Ukraine folds and Russia wins.

 

 

 

 

 

20 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Ukraine (Kiev) are agressors, they have just been out agressed by Russia.... why people don't understand that Ukraine was in the process of mounting an invasion of the Donbass to take it back forceably against the secceded areas and this was a major escalation of the ongoing civil war which had pretty much been a stalemate since 2014.

I agree with Russia securing the Donbass for the people who live there who have opted not to be part of a undemocratic government and country.  People have the right to self determination after a coup/revolution, the Donbass made the decision to secede, Kiev refused to accept this and a low intensity civil war was in progress.

As Kiev Government is operated by extremists and will not agree to the Donbas doing it's own thing, Russia, now has to force the Kiev Government to fold in order to avoid a continuing civil war and is in the process of doing so by degrading its military to a point it cannot continue to fight.

 

 

19 hours ago, Stonepark said:

The war footing is to have factories provide munitions and supplies 24/7 and is not a call up of reserves or a full war economy.

The West has tried to cripple oil tankers through refusing to insure, however, the West now only insures some 60% of marine shipping, the Greeks and others who ships are internaltionally flagged are just getting insurance from elsewhere such as Russia, China and India.

Russia has laid pipelines for gas both to the West and the East and is expanding these as we speak and getting the gas to where it is needed is not difficult, as they do not need to liquify it to transport it, unlike the West (especially Europe) who are having difficulties in obtaining a alternative supply.

Russian Crude flows.jpg

Russia gas pipelines.jpg

 

19 hours ago, Stonepark said:

Agreed we both have differing points of view and I have been trying to post independant (non-biased) links where possible for people to get views that are not reported by the MSM who are clearly following a pro Kiev agenda.

Putin, indeed has the ball and he is going to carry it until Ukraine is sufficently defeated militarily to not be a problem for the independant republic of Donbass for the forseeable future. If this means he has to not only degrade the army but also the Kiev government and elites, he is going to do so.

If Ukraine wants to stop this, they simply have to call a ceasefire and implement the Minsk accords or a new version of them and leave the Donbass to self govern as they have been doing since 2014. Unfortuneately as Kiev is controlled by extremists, that is unlikely to happen. Bear in mind the Donbass and Crimea were not part of any election of the current kiev government and in their eyes is illigitimate.

Forcing the people of the Donbass to reintegrate into Ukraine (as is Zelensky's goal) is no different from trying to force the Republic of Ireland to reintegrate into the UK, it ain't going to happen without a major fight and would be the closest parallel today. The Minsk accords being the equivalent of the Anglo - Irish treaty.

 

18 hours ago, Stonepark said:

These posts are a good example of the mass bombardment of rubbish posts on forums.  It's about the same as the trump election  issues.  Now the question is,  are these posters .... crackpots.? ... trouble makers.? ... Russian sympathizers  ( agents of foreign powers) or are they real people.. or some sort of foreign operated bots.?  Because for anyone to post that amount of rubbish posts in that period of time ain't normal.  It's a case of BS baffles brain power. But it's like Churchills quote above. .. you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

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1 hour ago, Minky said:

 

 

 

 

 

These posts are a good example of the mass bombardment of rubbish posts on forums.  It's about the same as the trump election  issues.  Now the question is,  are these posters .... crackpots.? ... trouble makers.? ... Russian sympathizers  ( agents of foreign powers) or are they real people.. or some sort of foreign operated bots.?  Because for anyone to post that amount of rubbish posts in that period of time ain't normal.  It's a case of BS baffles brain power. But it's like Churchills quote above. .. you can't fool all of the people all of the time.


 

I did wonder.

Anyone who knows their way round the internet will have seen the Russian Twitter bots at work, and likewise, say something nasty about Putin and you get reported / piled on on Facey.

The Russians do info wars better than anyone else, and there’s always some halfwit ready to lap it up - flat earthers, Chem trails, lizard people, the CIA bringing down the Twin Towers - that’s ready to go fertile ground for a bit of pro Putin nonsense propaganda.

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I  aint fooled by that nonsense and  As Russ Abott used to say... SEE YOU JIMMY.!!!!!   If all else fails and Putin's cronys come a calling I've still got me pitch fork.  Like corporal Jones said... They don't like it up em and if they do come a calling they'll get a Damn good forking

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So why has 3 ÷ hours gone by and not one post about how evil the Ukrainians are or how they're going to get beaten.  Have I outed some sort of propaganda scam.  I'm waiting for some sort of clown to surface and show themselves.  ..have I  found a new sport.?  Hunt the 5th columnist or the bot man.  Also out in the Ukraine there are hundreds of cases being investigated of Russian agents that have sneaked into the armed services.  and working for the russians.  There's a very simple cure for that.  A rope and a tree.

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40 minutes ago, Minky said:

So why has 3 ÷ hours gone by and not one post about how evil the Ukrainians are or how they're going to get beaten.  Have I outed some sort of propaganda scam.  I'm waiting for some sort of clown to surface and show themselves.  ..have I  found a new sport.?  Hunt the 5th columnist or the bot man.  Also out in the Ukraine there are hundreds of cases being investigated of Russian agents that have sneaked into the armed services.  and working for the russians.  There's a very simple cure for that.  A rope and a tree.

Do you know what , you may not have found a new sport , but youre certainly in line for troll of the week.

Youve waited 3+ hours for someone to say how 'evil' the Ukrainians are, but guess what , no ones going to say that, no ones ever said that, because its not true.
If you think that everyone with a different opinion to yours is a bot , 5th  columnist or 'working for the Kremlin' then its you that has the problem.

I find it very sad that there are real actual people , who read a paper , or watch the 10 pm news , and suddenly develop an expertise in geo political affairs that eclipses people that have followed and studied it for decades.

Listen very carefully Minky.

I do not like Russians, they are rude, arrogant, and usually smell bad, Ukrainians are no better.
I do not agree with Russia invading Ukraine, nor do I think Russia is 'justified' , I think the loss of life, military and civilian, is appalling .
I do not agree with the idea that Ukraine was invaded because Putin is mad , or trying to recreate the USSR or the Russian empire, or because of nazis or language.
Just because the news tell you something , it doesnt mean its true. Try to remember that.

The facts are , Ukraine HAS been invaded, a large part is occupied, and cities and infrastructure have been destroyed.
I DO believe that  if there had been serious negotiations beforehand , all this could have been avoided.
I do believe that US/NATO meddling , to the detriment of Ukraine, made this impossible, and continues to do so.
I do believe Ukraine cannot now regain what its lost , 'win' as it were, without considerable further destruction and loss of life.
It would appear, as we pump more and more arms into the warzone , and Russia mobilises more men and equipment, that this is a price the west is quite willing for Ukraine to pay.
Now Im sure there'll be some fat contracts to rebuild their country eventually, but how Ukraines going to pay for it , who knows ? The west will likely own them for decades.

Then theres the plaintiff cries of  'Why doesnt Russia just pull out ?' 
Well , thats not happening , and in essence , who would ?
After committing lives and materiel , why would you just stop and give it up. (We stopped in Afghan and iRAQ for 20 years and achieved NOTHING)
So lets look at other options besides duking it out until we see a possible WW3 escalation, or Russia decides it has enough ground.
The problem is , this calls for diplomacy and negotiation, yet where is it ? Zelenskys condition for getting round a table , is for ALL Russian forces to leave ALL taken ground in Ukraine, including Crimea.
So effectively, no negotiations possible, and Zelensky seems happy to continue fighting, no matter what the cost , how good a leader is he , as he screams for more heavier and advanced weapons ?

There are a multitude of actors in this , with a multitude of aims and side hustles, but what I can tell you is, the 'official' story has little to do with the reality.
Now if that makes me a flat earther, or a tin foiler, I dont really care.
I do care about the suffering of the Ukrainians, I/YOU cant imagine anything like it, they certainly dont deserve whats happened to them , and to suggest otherwise is crass ignorance.
I just hope that sooner rather than later , something happens to stop this stupidity.

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21 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, Putin won't stop destroying and murdering Ukraine citizens , men, women and children not forgetting the army personnel until he fires every bomb Russia holds

I know you feel for the people , but if the intention was to kill as many civilians as possible, then they would just carpet bomb city suburbs ?
Again dont take this as me defending it , but the way its portrayed as deliberate, just doesnt make sense.

 

25 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

and now I see people who were brought in to find those responsible for war crimes have been influenced by Russia ?

Im not sure if youre referring to the people Zelensky has just publicly sacked and accused of treason, but I have heard hes actually backtracking on it , hes now saying theyre suspended, pending an inquiry.
Ill dig around on that one , but its very difficult to get unbiased information, when the only source is the Ukrainian government.

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4 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Do you know what , you may not have found a new sport , but youre certainly in line for troll of the week.

Youve waited 3+ hours for someone to say how 'evil' the Ukrainians are, but guess what , no ones going to say that, no ones ever said that, because its not true.
If you think that everyone with a different opinion to yours is a bot , 5th  columnist or 'working for the Kremlin' then its you that has the problem.

I find it very sad that there are real actual people , who read a paper , or watch the 10 pm news , and suddenly develop an expertise in geo political affairs that eclipses people that have followed and studied it for decades.

Listen very carefully Minky.

I do not like Russians, they are rude, arrogant, and usually smell bad, Ukrainians are no better.
I do not agree with Russia invading Ukraine, nor do I think Russia is 'justified' , I think the loss of life, military and civilian, is appalling .
I do not agree with the idea that Ukraine was invaded because Putin is mad , or trying to recreate the USSR or the Russian empire, or because of nazis or language.
Just because the news tell you something , it doesnt mean its true. Try to remember that.

The facts are , Ukraine HAS been invaded, a large part is occupied, and cities and infrastructure have been destroyed.
I DO believe that  if there had been serious negotiations beforehand , all this could have been avoided.
I do believe that US/NATO meddling , to the detriment of Ukraine, made this impossible, and continues to do so.
I do believe Ukraine cannot now regain what its lost , 'win' as it were, without considerable further destruction and loss of life.
It would appear, as we pump more and more arms into the warzone , and Russia mobilises more men and equipment, that this is a price the west is quite willing for Ukraine to pay.
Now Im sure there'll be some fat contracts to rebuild their country eventually, but how Ukraines going to pay for it , who knows ? The west will likely own them for decades.

Then theres the plaintiff cries of  'Why doesnt Russia just pull out ?' 
Well , thats not happening , and in essence , who would ?
After committing lives and materiel , why would you just stop and give it up. (We stopped in Afghan and iRAQ for 20 years and achieved NOTHING)
So lets look at other options besides duking it out until we see a possible WW3 escalation, or Russia decides it has enough ground.
The problem is , this calls for diplomacy and negotiation, yet where is it ? Zelenskys condition for getting round a table , is for ALL Russian forces to leave ALL taken ground in Ukraine, including Crimea.
So effectively, no negotiations possible, and Zelensky seems happy to continue fighting, no matter what the cost , how good a leader is he , as he screams for more heavier and advanced weapons ?

There are a multitude of actors in this , with a multitude of aims and side hustles, but what I can tell you is, the 'official' story has little to do with the reality.
Now if that makes me a flat earther, or a tin foiler, I dont really care.
I do care about the suffering of the Ukrainians, I/YOU cant imagine anything like it, they certainly dont deserve whats happened to them , and to suggest otherwise is crass ignorance.
I just hope that sooner rather than later , something happens to stop this stupidity.

 

2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

I know you feel for the people , but if the intention was to kill as many civilians as possible, then they would just carpet bomb city suburbs ?
Again dont take this as me defending it , but the way its portrayed as deliberate, just doesnt make sense.

 

Im not sure if youre referring to the people Zelensky has just publicly sacked and accused of treason, but I have heard hes actually backtracking on it , hes now saying theyre suspended, pending an inquiry.
Ill dig around on that one , but its very difficult to get unbiased information, when the only source is the Ukrainian government.

Another couple of examples.  Do these posts look normal to anyone. On a shooting hunting forum.?

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7 minutes ago, Minky said:

 

Another couple of examples.  Do these posts look normal to anyone. On a shooting hunting forum.?

On Off Topic, we talk about anything, politics, people, places, all kinds of daftness. It's one of the most  lively and active parts of the forum. 

I would suggest, if you don't like it, or it offends you, don't read it. 

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It doesn't appear as if there is any discussion involved it's just a couple of posters bombarding the  forum with nasty propaganda.  If your so into each others opinions why don't you go off line and you can bore each other senseless with the nonsense drivel. You could even meet up and have a cup of tea.  I'm sure that the monitoring services would love to know that your happy together.

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34 minutes ago, Minky said:

 

Another couple of examples.  Do these posts look normal to anyone. On a shooting hunting forum.?

They look perfectly normal in this section. 

6 hours ago, Minky said:

So why has 3 ÷ hours gone by and not one post about how evil the Ukrainians are or how they're going to get beaten.  Have I outed some sort of propaganda scam.  I'm waiting for some sort of clown to surface and show themselves.  ..have I  found a new sport.?  Hunt the 5th columnist or the bot man.  Also out in the Ukraine there are hundreds of cases being investigated of Russian agents that have sneaked into the armed services.  and working for the russians.  There's a very simple cure for that.  A rope and a tree.

This looks like someone bored, and it seems strange for someone with so few posts on the forum to suddenly start accusing people of being bots, the topic has been going for 80+ pages, where were you then?

, I heard on the news earlier that 60 or 600 Ukrainians had been found to be working with the Russians,  I wasn't paying attention and haven't looked further into it, but someone high up in Zelensky security is said to be involved, no doubt anyone commenting on this will be a Russian sympathiser, couldn't be corruption,  they must be super spies.

6 hours ago, Minky said:

not one post about how evil the Ukrainians are

Not sure I've read one post saying the Ukrainians are evil, just different opinions giving two sides to the story. 

Was there not a coup which brought in the current government?

Has there not been ongoing fighting for the last 8 years?

Has the Ukraine not been receiving training and supplies from the West for the last 8 years, despite not being in NATO 

Russia aren't likely to simply leave, maybe if the sanctions were lifted if they did they might, but I'm not sure that's on the table.

5 hours ago, Rewulf said:

The problem is , this calls for diplomacy and negotiation, yet where is it ? Zelenskys condition for getting round a table , is for ALL Russian forces to leave ALL taken ground in Ukraine, including Crimea.
So effectively, no negotiations possible, and Zelensky seems happy to continue fighting, no matter what the cost , how good a leader is he , as he screams for more heavier and advanced weapons ?

If that's the case then there's little chance of any sort of negotiation happening,  which just means more of the same.

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Quote

 

5 hours ago, Rewulf said:

The problem is , this calls for diplomacy and negotiation, yet where is it ? Zelenskys condition for getting round a table , is for ALL Russian forces to leave ALL taken ground in Ukraine, including Crimea.
So effectively, no negotiations possible, and Zelensky seems happy to continue fighting, no matter what the cost , how good a leader is he , as he screams for more heavier and advanced weapons ?

 

Imagine that the Ukrainian's  want the invaders who are in their country destroying it murdering their men women and children out of their country, how unreasonable of them. Anyone that thinks any agreement with the Russians would be honoured by the Russians / Putin needs their heads looked at. 

Edited by ordnance
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11 minutes ago, ordnance said:
 

Imagine that the Ukrainian's  want the invaders who are in their country destroying it murdering their men women and children out of their country, how unreasonable of them. Anyone that thinks any agreement with the Russians would be honoured by the Russians / Putin needs their heads looked at. 

Okaaay, just keep fighting then? 

Then more men, women and children are killed, more infrastructure destroyed? 

At least they didn't show weakness by negotiating yes?

EVERY conflict ends with negotiations, besides a few historical examples, when a race, tribe or city was completely annihilated, and there was no one left. 

The problem with Ukraine, is it doesn't seem to be allowed to talk to Russia without NATOs permission, is it a case of, do it like we say, or the weapons tap is turned off? 

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16 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Okaaay, just keep fighting then? 

Then more men, women and children are killed, more infrastructure destroyed? 

At least they didn't show weakness by negotiating yes?

EVERY conflict ends with negotiations, besides a few historical examples, when a race, tribe or city was completely annihilated, and there was no one left. 

The problem with Ukraine, is it doesn't seem to be allowed to talk to Russia without NATOs permission, is it a case of, do it like we say, or the weapons tap is turned off? 

And you don't start a negotiating by stating we are willing to give up this or that, you start by saying you are giving nothing up and then you negotiate.  As for not being allowed to negotiate without NATO permission, I would say its the other way round France Germany etc would be happy for the Ukrainian's to hold their hands up tomorrow and surrender. Yes more people will be killed by invading Russian soldiers, they can march out tomorrow and end the fighting, The UK was willing to accept the carpet bombing of British cities and the civilian deaths and destruction that came with it, they could have done what you suggest negotiate with the Nazis and in the sort term spared British lives, but Hitler like Putin would have being back for more. This is nothing new, like now back then there were apologists for Hitler in the UK who wanted a negotiated surrender the Hitler, some things never change. 

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2 minutes ago, ordnance said:

And you don't start a negotiating by stating we are willing to give up this or that, you start by saying you are giving nothing up and then you negotiate

Again, just don't bother then, keep killing each other? 

 

4 minutes ago, ordnance said:

As for not being allowed to negotiate without NATO permission, I would say its the other way round France Germany etc would be happy for the Ukrainian's to hold their hands up tomorrow and surrender

France and Germany aren't NATO, the US is NATO , or at least 90% of it, plus they're more than happy to work outside of it if it suits they're interest. 

Germany in particular is facing economic collapse if it doesn't keep buying Russian gas , which is why it, and the EU, have today decided that any further sanctions on Russia, will not involve buying gas... In roubles. 

11 minutes ago, ordnance said:

The UK was willing to accept the carpet bombing of British cities and the civilian deaths and destruction that came with it

We were giving it back just as bad, later.. Worse. 

A better analogy would be Japan, their code of non surrender, melted as city after city was levelled with incendiaries, then nukes. When they heard the yanks had 8 more ready, and their own forces were finished and out of fuel, did they fight on? No. Because they couldn't win. 

Can Ukraine win? 

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We were giving it back just as bad, later.. Worse. 

A better analogy would be Japan, their code of non surrender, melted as city after city was levelled with incendiaries, then nukes. When they heard the yanks had 8 more ready, and their own forces were finished and out of fuel, did they fight on? No. Because they couldn't win. 

Can Ukraine win? 

 

Yes LATER in the war they were not when the Luftwaffe was flattening UK city's, the UK hadn't a clue at that stage if they could win the war. As i said there were people back then with a similar attitude to you, the UK should sue for peace as they couldn't win. Can Ukraine win that depends on what you define as win, no matter what happens there is no win in this for Russia / Putin, because of his actions Sweden and Finland are joining NATO, NATO is more united now than it has being for decades, Russia / Putin are global outcasts. He had a win when western leaders were queuing up to lick his boots, at that stage he could have got most he wanted form them, he blew it. 

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10 hours ago, Rewulf said:

Okaaay, just keep fighting then? 

Then more men, women and children are killed, more infrastructure destroyed? 

At least they didn't show weakness by negotiating yes?

 

Got to be honest, I think that's arrogant. Who the hell is Russia, or anyone else to invade a country and then mock Ukraine for having the audacity to fight back. 

I really don't understand your thought process. 

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21 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Got to be honest, I think that's arrogant. Who the hell is Russia, or anyone else to invade a country and then mock Ukraine for having the audacity to fight back. 

I really don't understand your thought process. 


Agreed.

It’s the Ukrainian’s choice at the end of the day and I’ve a sneaking suspicion they’ve watched what happens to those who attempt to surrender to or are repatriated within the depths of Russia, and fighting is the lesser of evils. But again, it’s their choice. 

Your next door neighbour has just broken into your house, murdered your family and now you are told you should be negotiating with him so he can stay in your garage or that you should have done more to dissuade him from breaking into your house in the first place. 

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As far as I'm aware, it's not a case of flights out of Russia banned per se but that there's a ban on Russian airlines being able to land / operate out of most nations in the world at the moment. So, if Iran is willing to accept a visit by Putin then there's nothing much that can be done about it by NATO, Ukraine or anyone else.

That said, if ever there was a good moment for a missile to go astray then...

 

Edit: not just airlines, Russian registered aircraft of all types

Edited by Raja Clavata
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2 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

if ever there was a good moment for a missile to go astray then...

That might not be good - it might result in a whole lot coming flying our way - and one 'worry' is that would apply whoever 'had one go astray' even if it was say Al Quaeda ..........

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