Farage

[udderlyoffroad]

40 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Anyone leaving the country when labour win tomorrow ? 

Didn't our friend Raja say he was leaving if the Reform candidate won in his constituency?

[oowee]

5 hours ago, Rewulf said:

So if Mexico or Canada wanted to join a Russia/China military pact, it would be no issue for the US ?
And if the war is nothing to do with NATO, why are we feeding money , arms and intelligence into it ?
I dont see anyone apologising for it, I see people wanting it to stop, to get us out of the mess we have created.

Taiwan is undefendable, if China wants it , its going to take it, unless you prefer WW3 ?

 

Russia looked to join NATO but as a criminal state it could not survive the membership hurdles. It currently shares a maritime border with the US. 

Putin cannot have success on his doorstep. He needs the conflict to survive. The only one to apologise is Putin. His time will come

We all want it to stop and stopping it is in the gift of Putin. With Trump on the horizon that looks an unlikely scenario just now. 

 

[Rewulf]

38 minutes ago, ditchman said:

Anyone wants a guess at how Farage/reform will do ......or will it be all squit again

I reckon 8 mps, and around 18 % of the popular vote.

[ditchman]

3 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

I reckon 8 mps, and around 18 % of the popular vote.

the polls vary soooo much ..everywhere from 7-22 MP's................

[Rewulf]

19 minutes ago, oowee said:

Russia looked to join NATO but as a criminal state it could not survive the membership hurdles

But Ukraine passes with flying colours ? 😂

Nato didn't want Russia because that would be one enemy less to justify their existence. 

21 minutes ago, oowee said:

Putin cannot have success on his doorstep

He's going to invade China next then ?

Just now, ditchman said:

the polls vary soooo much ..everywhere from 7-22 MP's................

22 would be amazing , but I dont see double figures in my tea leaves.

[Wymondley]

Out for dinner with family tonight and inevitably the conversation turned to politics...

Surprised that the younger and previously left leaning members are voting Reform, they want change and don't believe they'll get it from Labour.

 

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, Wymondley said:

they want change and don't believe they'll get it from Labour

Good on them , but unfortunately we're getting labour this time.

Next time , maybe we'll get a change for the better.

[Wymondley]

I've never forced my views on them, they've just been encouraged to understand what it is they're actually voting for.

Successful, twenty somethings, with a social conscience, prime Labour/liberal voters normally, but apparently not this time.

Not fans of Farage but just see the need for a kick up the rear of British politics.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[12gauge82]

6 hours ago, ditchman said:

Anyone wants a guess at how Farage/reform will do ......or will it be all squit again

I suspect they might do better than predicted, which if achieved will be an incredible result considering they're an upstart party formed very hastily after a snap election.

How many seats and the vote share they get I don't know, but my prediction is based from the amount of people I know who are voting reform from all sides of life and political spectrum, it has a similar feel to the brexit referendum and while I don't think there's a chance of them actually winning this time, I think they're going to beat the polls. 

 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

7 hours ago, udderlyoffroad said:

Didn't our friend Raja say he was leaving if the Reform candidate won in his constituency?

 

7 hours ago, Rewulf said:

I reckon 8 mps, and around 18 % of the popular vote.

 

7 hours ago, ditchman said:

the polls vary soooo much ..everywhere from 7-22 MP's................

I would love to see Reform overtake the bloody pointless liberal Democrats and their twit of a Leader Sir Ed Davey.

[Yellow Bear]

2 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

 

 

I would love to see Reform overtake the bloody pointless liberal Democrats and their twit of a Leader Sir Ed Davey.

They cooked their goose when they moved from centre to hard left, and that when "centre" moved left as well.

[12gauge82]

2 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

 

 

I would love to see Reform overtake the bloody pointless liberal Democrats and their twit of a Leader Sir Ed Davey.

As a share of the vote I don't think they'll have a problem doing just that. Actual seats I don't know. 

[JohnfromUK]

18 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

Actual seats I don't know.

It makes little difference.  The likely outcome is a very large Labour majority with around 400 MPs.  The 'opposition' will be therefore around 225 seats made up of a mixture of ;

• Tories - maybe 100 seats?
• Lib Dems - maybe 50 - 75 seats?
• Greens - a few seats
• Reform - a few seats
• SNP, Plaid Cymru and various Northern Ireland parties - around 40-50 seats?

The size of the majority will enable the Government to effectively ignore any opposition and in the majority of cases ignore quite large sections of their own party (the Gov't is likely to get support from Plaid and SNP and some NI parties on some issues).

This means that they can easily drive through some 'Labour' favoured policies on matters that are likely to be favoured by the left and Trades Union sections (a LOT of MPs will be Trades Union affiliated) and can ignore quite a few 'moderates' on the Labour benches.

The actual 'right leaning' opposition will only be around 100-120 seats as Lib Dem, Green and a majority of NI, Scottish and Welsh seats are likely to vote with Labour leaving only Tory, Unionist and Reform on the right.  That in effect may have nasty knock ons for 'fieldsports' and firearms.

Edited July 4 by JohnfromUK

[12gauge82]

7 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

It makes little difference.  The likely outcome is a very large Labour majority with around 400 MPs.  The 'opposition' will be therefore around 225 seats made up of a mixture of ;

• Tories - maybe 100 seats?
• Lib Dems - maybe 50 - 75 seats?
• Greens - a few seats
• Reform - a few seats
• SNP, Plaid Cymru and various Northern Ireland parties - around 40-50 seats?

The size of the majority will enable the Government to effectively ignore any opposition and in the majority of cases ignore quite large sections of their own party (the Gov't is likely to get support from Plaid and SNP and some NI parties on some issues).

This means that they can easily drive through some 'Labour' favoured policies on matters that are likely to be favoured by the left and Trades Union sections (a LOT of MPs will be Trades Union affiliated) and can ignore quite a few 'moderates' on the Labour benches.

The actual 'right leaning' opposition will only be around 100-120 seats as Lib Dem, Green and a majority of NI, Scottish and Welsh seats are likely to vote with Labour leaving only Tory, Unionist and Reform on the right.  That in effect may have nasty knock ons for 'fieldsports' and firearms.

Agreed John. It's why anyone who is usually a tory voter needs to give their vote to reform as they are now the opposition party. A vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote, they're a spent entity and have blown it. Without drastic change, I believe permanently. 

[Penelope]

11 hours ago, Wymondley said:

Out for dinner with family tonight and inevitably the conversation turned to politics...

Surprised that the younger and previously left leaning members are voting Reform, they want change and don't believe they'll get it from Labour.

 

I've had people at work, who you would NOT expect in a million years, say they intend to vote for Reform.

[ShootingEgg]

14 minutes ago, Penelope said:

I've had people at work, who you would NOT expect in a million years, say they intend to vote for Reform.

I don't think they will get enough across the board though. Tactical and spoilt papers will decide today's outcome 

[Dave-G]

I suspect a lot of Labour and Tory usual voters will be sick and fed up of voting - voter apathy will take its toll.

I'm not voting because my brown patch will always vote for slimy Vasalene no matter how much shame he doesn't posses.

[sportsbob]

On 29/06/2024 at 15:54, Raja Clavata said:

No, it doesn’t. Delighted to be able to clear that one up for you.

Thanks for the ambiguous sarcastic reply , are you by any chance a politician . A simple answer to this if at all possible where do you consider on the left to right scale Reform reside.

[Zoli 12 guage]

just called in on the way back from walking the Beagle and me and Reggie put our cross in the Reform box,even though i've never heard of the geezer 👍

[ditchman]

44 minutes ago, Zoli 12 guage said:

just called in on the way back from walking the Beagle and me and Reggie put our cross in the Reform box,even though i've never heard of the geezer 👍

HHhahhahhahhahaaaaaa....you are not the only one

[Rewulf]

46 minutes ago, Zoli 12 guage said:

just called in on the way back from walking the Beagle and me and Reggie put our cross in the Reform box,even though i've never heard of the geezer 👍

I was going to nip in before work this morning and vote for my local Reform candidate, then I made the mistake of checking him out, now Im not going to bother voting at all.
Not that he was ever going to win, Notts north has been a labour safe seat for decades, high levels of unemployment , poverty and crime, underwritten by the totally labour controlled council that is one of the worst in the country.
I just wanted Reform to get as many votes as possible, but their selection of this candidate makes no sense to me at all.
His name is Golam Kadiri, he doesnt and has never lived in any part of Nottinghamshire, describes himself as an entrepreneur, but sell 2nd hand cars, he was born and educated in Bangladesh.
In a 90% white working class area, racist connotations aside, why would the locals vote for someone that has no connection to the area whatsoever? You could walk into any pub in the area and pick a random bloke, and he would do better at garnering support.

I can only think he has a 'mate' in the party who put him forward using the business connection part of the electoral conditions.
Reform need to do better.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

3 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Reform need to do better.

They CERTAINLY do, a bloody used car salesman from up tut north.......................

[sandspider]

Even if you think there's no point voting, because Labour or whoever will get in, you still need to vote. If no one who's not a Labour voter bothers to vote, Labour will certainly get in! And even if they still win, maybe a lower majority will mean someone takes notice and things change in future.

[Rewulf]

7 minutes ago, sandspider said:

Even if you think there's no point voting, because Labour or whoever will get in, you still need to vote. If no one who's not a Labour voter bothers to vote, Labour will certainly get in! And even if they still win, maybe a lower majority will mean someone takes notice and things change in future.

In my opinion, there are 2 things to vote for, the MP , and what he would do for me and my community.
And the 2nd is the policies of the party he is a member of.
You might like the candidate, you may not like the party, or vice versa.
You could add a 3rd option of a protest or tactical vote, but thats irrelevant to this.

I just didnt like the man in this situation ,I like Reform, but Im annoyed that they put zero thought into this.
Maybe Mr Kadiri will do really well, maybe hes a nice guy, its hard to tell because theres very little information available about him , his LinkIn profiles are virtually blank, his Facebook has virtually nothing.
Maybe Reform are just using a filler, because they know they cant win ? But like I say , at least they could have picked someone local.

[sandspider]

True enough, and I understand your point. Reform do seem to be phoning it in a bit. But you could vote for an independent (if you have that option) or draw a male chicken on your ballot paper? Again, maybe somebody will notice.

My current MP, a Tory, has actually done a pretty good job as far as I can tell - he's helped me, been visible in the area, tried to influence local causes etc. I like the man, but not the party.