Lockdown

[Scully]

2 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

Can't afford not to be in work without better support from the Government.

Me neither. If I’m paid to stay at home then I’ll stay at home quite happily. 

[bruno22rf]

Friend of mine was told to go to Stoke Mandeville Hospital with her symptoms on Friday - she was seen by a Doctor, wearing full Hazmat, whilst still in the Car Park.

[NatureBoy]

8 minutes ago, Scully said:

That’s the thing really; if you’re self employed then you have to work, unfortunately. I’m getting ready to go now. 

Same here Scully! Lot of jobs been/being cancelled! Gona be hard times! Even having exterior decorating jobs and maintenance being cancelled. Owners of holiday lets and second homes i look after have come out of the city's to stay in them themselves. A lot seen travelling through Suffolk fully loaded at weekend. Some have asked for keys back. Another had cleared all the cleaning products out of her properties last week. Others have asked for keys to there beach huts even (still got 2 to finish). Maybe that's where they are hording all the food! They were a lot in Southwold and Aldebrough Framlingham and the like last week. And packed this weekend. Locals avoiding them and not happy. One in local butchers 3 times in a week buying as much as she could until they put a limit on her. Be interesting if virus shows a spike in these places.      NB

[Scully]

1 minute ago, NatureBoy said:

Same here Scully! Lot of jobs been/being cancelled! Gona be hard times! Even having exterior decorating jobs and maintenance being cancelled. Owners of holiday lets and second homes i look after have come out of the city's to stay in them themselves. A lot seen travelling through Suffolk fully loaded at weekend. Some have asked for keys back. Another had cleared all the cleaning products out of her properties last week. Others have asked for keys to there beach huts even (still got 2 to finish). Maybe that's where they are hording all the food! They were a lot in Southwold and Aldebrough Framlingham and the like last week. And packed this weekend. Locals avoiding them and not happy. One in local butchers 3 times in a week buying as much as she could until they put a limit on her. Be interesting if virus shows a spike in these places.      NB

Lake District very busy apparently, for whatever reason? 🤔

[Dave at kelton]

20 hours ago, Westward said:

I don't disagree but it needs to be organised because there's a balance to be considered between the level at which local medical facilities break down and how long the pandemic lasts. Governments, or more specifically the civil servants who really make the decisions, never seem to get the fact that there are different conditions and circumstances in different parts of the country. Here in Glos for example, there are only 20 or so cases, and with similar levels in surrounding areas lockdown is pointless for us right now. If infections increase here it will come from outside through train and vehicle travel, parcel and food deliveries etc.

Italy shows that lockdown in a democratic society only has a small effect on preventing the spread, especially in urban areas.

Just because you have few cases now in a rural area is not the point. It will reach you, probably spread by people coming into the area. Here in SW Scotland we are facing an influx of campervans and we don’t want them. Just cause you are in a van does not stop it reaching us. You have to get out, touch surfaces, buy provisions and interact with our community. If you don’t get the stay at home then the sooner Boris locks us all down, save for key workers, the better!

[Nuke]

20 hours ago, Westward said:

I don't disagree but it needs to be organised because there's a balance to be considered between the level at which local medical facilities break down and how long the pandemic lasts. Governments, or more specifically the civil servants who really make the decisions, never seem to get the fact that there are different conditions and circumstances in different parts of the country. Here in Glos for example, there are only 20 or so cases, and with similar levels in surrounding areas lockdown is pointless for us right now.

Not pointless, if you have a low local count then you can help other parts of the country and recieve intensive care patients from them.

/M

[Retsdon]

 

[Demonic69]

Let's do the maths:

66 Million in the UK.

5683 confirmed cases so far, over 2 weeks, presumed 22,000 actual cases based on data from China, Japan, Germany and S Korea

281 deaths

Presumed 60% of population need to catch and recover to achieve some kind of herd immunity, so 39.6 Million.

If we could maintain the current infection rate of 1500 per day it would take 26,666 days for enough people to become infected, 73 years.

A generous mortality rate of 1% (current rate sits at almost 5%, but this was the same for swine flu and bird flu and their mortality rates turned out to be less than .3%) would see 660,000 dead by then end of this. 390,000 if herd immunity worked to protect those vulnerable, way more if the mortality rate doesn't follow expected patterns.

The Infection rate before the new guidance would have been exponential, though should show some slowing in the coming weeks.

I know social distancing is meant to help keep the spread manageable, and isolation is meant to protect those most at risk. But what's the end-goal for complete lock-down? Wait for a cure to appear? Can we survive  18-24 month lock-down? Do people truly believe there will be a day when the Gov't say "It's OK folks, you can all come out now, we've sorted it"?

Edited March 23, 2020 by Demonic69

[Retsdon]

4 minutes ago, Demonic69 said:

But what's the end-goal for complete lock-down?

To buy time. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[Medic1281]

8 minutes ago, Demonic69 said:

Let's do the maths:

66 Million in the UK.

5683 confirmed cases so far, over 2 weeks, presumed 22,000 actual cases based on data from China, Japan, Germany and S Korea

281 deaths

Presumed 60% of population need to catch and recover to achieve some kind of herd immunity, so 39.6 Million.

If we could maintain the current infection rate of 1500 per day it would take 26,666 days for enough people to become infected, 73 years.

A generous mortality rate of 1% (current rate sits at almost 5%, but this was the same for swine flu and bird flu and their mortality rates turned out to be less than .3%) would see 6.6Million dead by then end of this. 3.9 million if herd immunity worked to protect those vulnerable, way more if the mortality rate doesn't follow expected patterns.

The Infection rate before the new guidance would have been exponential, though should show some slowing in the coming weeks.

I know social distancing is meant to help keep the spread manageable, and isolation is meant to protect those most at risk. But what's the end-goal for complete lock-down? Wait for a cure to appear? Can we survive  18-24 month lock-down? Do people truly believe there will be a day when the Gov't say "It's OK folks, you can all come out now, we've sorted it"?

18-24 month lockdown is a very possible scenario at the moment. Not expected to see a peak until middle of June, with the 5 weeks either side of that being truly horrendous. The death rate is likely to double every few days. People are dying now and that’s when we have all the kit and doctors to look after them. Next week, when icu is at capacity and half the doctors and healthcare staff are off sick things will get drastically worse. People will be dying of things that should ordinarily be survivable. 

[henry d]

16 minutes ago, Demonic69 said:

Let's do the maths:

If we could maintain the current infection rate of 1500 per day it would take 26,666 days for enough people to become infected, 73 years.

Your maths is wrong here, infection rates are exponential.

[Demonic69]

Just now, henry d said:

Your maths is wrong here, infection rates are exponential.

As I said up there, don't cherry pick Henry.

23 minutes ago, Demonic69 said:

The Infection rate before the new guidance would have been exponential, though should show some slowing in the coming weeks.

The whole point of the measures, however, are to keep the rate to a manageable number and stop it being exponential

[AVB]

13 minutes ago, Medic1281 said:

18-24 month lockdown is a very possible scenario at the moment. Not expected to see a peak until middle of June, with the 5 weeks either side of that being truly horrendous. The death rate is likely to double every few days. People are dying now and that’s when we have all the kit and doctors to look after them. Next week, when icu is at capacity and half the doctors and healthcare staff are off sick things will get drastically worse. People will be dying of things that should ordinarily be survivable. 

Doesn’t this explain why people are stockpiling? You talk about a two year lockdown. If half the health workers are sick then half the food production/distribution workers will also be sick and food supply stops. 

I get the need to scare people in order to stop them mingling and therefore slow down the spread but the unintended consequence of this is fear and irrational behaviour like stockpiling. 

[Scully]

1 hour ago, Dave at kelton said:

Just because you have few cases now in a rural area is not the point. It will reach you, probably spread by people coming into the area. Here in SW Scotland we are facing an influx of campervans and we don’t want them. Just cause you are in a van does not stop it reaching us. You have to get out, touch surfaces, buy provisions and interact with our community. If you don’t get the stay at home then the sooner Boris locks us all down, save for key workers, the better!

Very rural where I am, and while I get your point, whilst I still have bills to pay I’ll have to work. If the government wants to get the mortgage companies, utility services, insurance services, rental services, council tax, HMRC etc etc to freeze payments due to them until this is over, then self employed people will have to go to work. 
You can’t expect people to stay at home with no income whilst still having bills to pay. 

[fse10]

I'm back to work Thursday as had a few days holiday to use. The union are on about trying to get the company i work for to do door step delivery only as we go into between 15 to 27 house's a day. But as we deliver white goods & connect said good's which in most case's are 78kg and bigger. I can't see this working with oap's not being able to move or connect the machines .

[Teal]

Govt is going to have to give everyone universal basic income - why they have made things so complex I do not know. Give this group that, that group this, and oh those groups we haven't got anything for will not work.

No way this is going to last 18-24 months, it'll be far sooner that things return to how they were (but that doesn't mean Coronavirus won't be infecting people in the world). There is also no way the infections in the UK are 22,000. It's far far higher than that. They expect mortality rate is 1%, but that is over the course of the infection - so taking 281 deaths it is not accurate to multiply by 100 and get the current infections from it. Mortality or (99%) of cases recovery is the end result of the infection. There is a big time lag between the two. I reckon infections if you want a number, (including recoveries) are probably more like 100k, and maybe considerably higher.

Provided the infection is kept under critical NHS staff and equipment levels, and assuming a vaccine isn't imminent (it isn't- many months) to generate herd immunity (which is a term journalists have terrified the public about, when it is such a good thing). You actually want it to rumble through the country, if you want things to return to normalcy. It is not realistic to think the present situation (and future tightening) can continue indefinitely. But to say that risks public vilification.

I've watched the briefings and it is really frustrating that the journalists questions are for the most part complete tripe. You would think the media would get journalists covering this with a scientific background, but no it's the same brainless arts+humanities based 'big names' wheeled out.

[grrclark]

Just now, Teal said:

Govt is going to have to give everyone universal basic income - why they have made things so complex I do not know. Give this group that, that group this, and oh those groups we haven't got anything for.

No way this is going to last 18-24 months, and there is also no way the infections in the UK are 22,000. It's far far higher than that. They expect mortality rate is 1%, but that is over the course of the infection - so taking 281 deaths it is not accurate to multiply by 100 and get the current infections from it. Mortality or (99%) of cases recovery is the end result of the infection. There is a big lag between the two. I reckon infections (including recoveries) are probably more like 100k.

Because people and businesses will try to profit.  There will be many self employed people that make only hundreds of pounds a month as pin money as they are supported by other income, but if they government says here is a package that pays more then they actually earn who is going to say no?

The government are trying to put in place a system to support and not replace.  If they provide a universal basic income will people still want to work for the grocery stores when they have to face angry customers day in day out with the attendant risk of heightened exposure to the virus.

More has to be done for the self employed, absolutely no doubt about that, but it is fraught with challenge and complexity.  At some point all of this has to be reconciled and paid back.

[Teal]

You are right but they need to get this money out to people ASAP. And they can only do that if they keep it super simple. Even if it was a one-off bonus payment of £500 per adult, that buys them time to sort out a better package in a month or so's time. It'll come to less than many of the bailouts, and this is going to citizens of the country, and for the most part it'll be ploughed back into the economy. 

To be honest think after a couple of weeks and with greater shutdowns coming, most of the population would be very happy if they were a key worker and leave their house - but I take your points.

[henry d]

19 minutes ago, Teal said:

. There is a big time lag between the two. I reckon infections if you want a number, (including recoveries) are probably more like 100k, and maybe considerably higher

Absolutely, a friend went into hospital and has the virus and it appears that her son who was ill with flu like symptoms was the first in the family to catch it and is now fully recovered, she is slightly better but being sent home to isolate there.

Definitely a lot more than the daily figures suggest which is why there is such a panic from doctors and scientists who actually have a scooby on how things like this escalate.

Stay in and if you need to go out keep well away from others, simples

[Farmboy91]

The sooner they put this lockdown in the better. I've got 1 family member in the vulnerable group who will not listen. Has gone out to pick bathroom tiles up of all things. 

The sheer pigheaded-ness of people is unreal. It baffles me at the lack of ability to follow simple guidance which benefits everyone. 

Sorry, had to rant and I'm at home alone haha.

[grrclark]

13 minutes ago, Teal said:

You are right but they need to get this money out to people ASAP. And they can only do that if they keep it super simple. Even if it was a one-off bonus payment of £500 per adult, that buys them time to sort out a better package in a month or so's time. It'll come to less than many of the bailouts, and this is going to citizens of the country, and for the most part it'll be ploughed back into the economy. 

To be honest think after a couple of weeks and with greater shutdowns coming, most of the population would be very happy if they were a key worker and leave their house - but I take your points.

Agreed, there is a need for immediate fiscal support to many, especially the self employed that are being heavily impacted.

I know of several business now that have furloughed employees and reduced them to the 80% amount set by the government, also know a few businesses that are topping that up too, which is nice to see.

Everyone still in anything resembling normal employment needs nothing yet, but how do you differentiate and do that quickly?

An alternate route of support potentially and one of smaller numbers to administer initially is for banks, credit companies, other lenders and landlords to apply on behalf of those who cannot pay. A legal declaration from the debtor that they are unable to pay due to shortfall of income directly related to covid19 means the government could support the loss of earnings to the creditor in months 1&2 and then the government can then directly interact with the debtor thereafter by whichever mechanism to support them through loss of income.

Penalties for those falsely declaring will have to become brutal to stop people trying to scam and take advantage.

[Mice!]

3 hours ago, Scully said:

That’s the thing really; if you’re self employed then you have to work, unfortunately. I’m getting ready to go now. 

I fully understand that, I'm a contractor and as far as I know I will be in this afternoon.

Like Teal has said the government needs to sort some sort of payment but I dont see it being simple.

I think with regards shopping we should be arriving at the shops to collect ready made up bags, like you order takeaway,  4 people in my house so you get food for four, and people will have to make do without luxuries for a while?

Put the Army in the stores,  see if people want to argue with those fellas.

[JKD]

2 hours ago, Demonic69 said:

Let's do the maths:

66 Million in the UK.

5683 confirmed cases so far, over 2 weeks, presumed 22,000 actual cases based on data from China, Japan, Germany and S Korea

281 deaths

Presumed 60% of population need to catch and recover to achieve some kind of herd immunity, so 39.6 Million.

If we could maintain the current infection rate of 1500 per day it would take 26,666 days for enough people to become infected, 73 years.

A generous mortality rate of 1% (current rate sits at almost 5%, but this was the same for swine flu and bird flu and their mortality rates turned out to be less than .3%) would see 6.6Million dead by then end of this. 3.9 million if herd immunity worked to protect those vulnerable, way more if the mortality rate doesn't follow expected patterns.

 

Sorry fella, but your maths isn't correct.

1% of 66 million is 660,000.

Also, the percentages of deaths are worked out from the infected numbers, not the population figures.

 

As for bringing in 'lockdown', in my opinion, as soon as possible !

 

As for this govt help with wages,,,, I'm sure I saw, when it was first announced, that it would be UP TO 80% ? 

Edited March 23, 2020 by JKD

[grrclark]

4 minutes ago, Mice! said:

I fully understand that, I'm a contractor and as far as I know I will be in this afternoon.

Like Teal has said the government needs to sort some sort of payment but I dont see it being simple.

I think with regards shopping we should be arriving at the shops to collect ready made up bags, like you order takeaway,  4 people in my house so you get food for four, and people will have to make do without luxuries for a while?

Put the Army in the stores,  see if people want to argue with those fellas.

In essence that is what Robert Jenrick announced last night as part of the community hub initiatives for the shielded and vulnerable groups.  There will be many diet fashionistas falling off their pedestals before very long.  Things like GF products will only be issued to those bonafide coeliac sufferers, not the elective i'm a wee bit gluten intolerant brigade.

The trendy veggies and vegans will have some tough choices to make real soon too .  For those with absolute genuine dietary limitations i feel sorry for them as it is going to get tougher.

6 minutes ago, JKD said:

As for this govt help with wages,,,, I'm sure I saw, when it was first announced, that it would be UP TO 80% ? 

Yes, there is a maximum cap which there needs to be.  If you earn say £2000 per week and if you are furloughed by your employer you are not going to get anything like 80% of your wage, more like 25%

[Mice!]

7 minutes ago, grrclark said:

In essence that is what Robert Jenrick announced last night as part of the community hub initiatives for the shielded and vulnerable groups.  There will be many diet fashionistas falling off their pedestals before very long.  Things like GF products will only be issued to those bonafide coeliac sufferers, not the elective i'm a wee bit gluten intolerant brigade.

The trendy veggies and vegans will have some tough choices to make real soon too .  For those with absolute genuine dietary limitations i feel sorry for them as it is going to get tougher.

Yes, there is a maximum cap which there needs to be.  If you earn say £2000 per week and if you are furloughed by your employer you are not going to get anything like 80% of your wage, more like 25%

I could cope happily with all that, I wouldn't expect to be given what I earn if I'm told I can't go to work, freeze mortgages and rent payments and give it two months,  see how things look then,  my garden will be immaculate and if I get stuff ordered I can hopefully sort my garage roof.

But we will see??