Deaths

[oowee]

16 minutes ago, Smokersmith said:

Do you know this will work .. ?

I don't believe that we've conclusive proof that 'immunity' is something we can rely on.

 

Unfortunately it's true that we don't know for sure but without that assumption what else can we do? We need to close it down either way.

If lock down of the vulnerable does not work and immunity does not occur then only total lock down will remove it by which time the economy will be in tatters. 

21 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

You'll be alright, G. You can afford the healthcare.

I have an expensive wife. 

[Smokersmith]

1 minute ago, oowee said:

Unfortunately it's true that we don't know for sure but without that assumption what else can we do?

Trust Prof. Whitty et al. and stop picking holes ….

[henry d]

51 minutes ago, SpringDon said:

You might be on to something there, no sense wasting money. And then we can start on the rest of the untermensch .

... and don't forget you are just a car crash or other disabling accident from going from über to ünter, careful what you wish for.

[Deker]

42 minutes ago, Mice! said:

Boom indeed. 

I wonder how many people die every year in care homes with barely a mention,  my parents barely made 60 which is still young to die, but people over 80 dying I'm sorry but that's life, we can't live forever.

Others have said many in the care homes would likely have died this year or next because of age or underlying health conditions, but covid has sped this up, not being with loved at the end for me makes people more emotional and the media have jumped on this.

I have no clue on the complete numbers for the UK but my other half is a GP who also works as part of her job in care homes, she said her usual death rate is around 3 per month but over the last few months has been over 20 per month

[Retsdon]

4 minutes ago, oowee said:

 

I have an expensive wife. 

😄😅😄

[Mice!]

2 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

My point was where do you draw the line. The moment you draw one at all - as in person A is worth saving but person B isn't - you're on very thin moral ice, because a line can be moved.

Your example was a pensioner in their own home, who goes on holidays. So how about a pensioner not in their own home? How about one in council housing who requires a bit of social support? Which side of the line would you put him or her? Thumb up or thumb down?

I see what your saying,  and I would say thumb up, the thumb down would be for those who need round the clock residential care, and cant live without medical assistance. 

Obviously I'll get stick for this, but as someone mentioned above, many people live beyond when they naturally should, if you've gone past say 80 and are just sat in a chair all day unaware of what's going on is that really living?

[toontastic]

Can I just point out not every one in a care home is old. My partner has someone in their forties to look after as well as a few others in their fifties. Are we now saying you get dementia you get a big thumbs down.

Edited May 15, 2020 by toontastic

[Deker]

3 minutes ago, toontastic said:

Can I just point out not every one in a care home is old. My partner has someone in their forties to look after as well as a few others in their fifties. Are we now saying you get dementia you get a big thumbs down.

That's a point often overlooked, my missus mentioned a father and son in a care home she looks after, son is mid 50's, dad is 80's - the son has had it worse than the father

 

[Raja Clavata]

2 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

My point was where do you draw the line. The moment you draw one at all - as in person A is worth saving but person B isn't - you're on very thin moral ice, because a line can be moved.

Your example was a pensioner in their own home, who goes on holidays. So how about a pensioner not in their own home? How about one in council housing who requires a bit of social support? Which side of the line would you put him or her? Thumb up or thumb down?

Care homes were cited because that's where the main hit is taking place, let's remove the age variable and just normalise to a life, irrespective of age.

Does someone want to take a punt on answering the question now?

[Mice!]

6 minutes ago, toontastic said:

Can I just point out not every one in a care home is old. My partner has someone in their forties to look after as well as a few others in their fifties. Are we now saying you get dementia you get a big thumbs down.

Something like that would be one of my biggest fears.

[Mungler]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

Care homes were cited because that's where the main hit is taking place, let's remove the age variable and just normalise to a life, irrespective of age.

Does someone want to take a punt on answering the question now?

Or indeed the scenario where everyone over 65 is locked down only and everyone else cracks on?

[Old farrier]

4 minutes ago, Mungler said:

Or indeed the scenario where everyone over 65 is locked down only and everyone else cracks on?

I assume from your posts that you have age and lack of health issues on your side 🤭

when people realise that the money isn’t real anymore it’s just a number on the screen then they will stop worrying about it 

a alternative view 

how about all the non essential workers going back to work and it won’t matter if they catch it that should help with the heard immunity as long as they build up a immunity that is 🤔

[Gordon R]

Mungler raised a serious point about the deaths in care homes - cue bizarre extrapolation.

Personally, I would lift the lockdown, but get a bit more serious with enforcing social distancing. Not easy on public transport, but beaches, parks, parties - dish out some stick.

Friend sent me a photo from KFC Bow London. Lockdown for over 65s would do little to cure this and these appear to be delivery drivers. How to potentially spread the virus in one easy lesson. 

[Raja Clavata]

In 2014, the UK Government valued life at £1.8M, if you link that with 5% yoy growth that's £2.4M in 2020.

At the same time, an intervention to deliver an extra Quality Adjusted Life Year costing £30k or less was regarded as good value for money, that's £40k in 2020 using the same yoy growth rate.

The average life expectancy in a UK care home is 2 years. Based on that could it be suggested that spending more than £80k on someone in a care home in the UK is not good VFM?

I'm just trying to get a baseline figure...

 

 

 

 

 

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Raja Clavata said:

Care homes were cited because that's where the main hit is taking place, let's remove the age variable and just normalise to a life, irrespective of age.

Does someone want to take a punt on answering the question now?

Isn’t that what they do on the real front line in a war zone. You triage those that you can save. 

29 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Mungler raised a serious point about the deaths in care homes - cue bizarre extrapolation.

Personally, I would lift the lockdown, but get a bit more serious with enforcing social distancing. Not easy on public transport, but beaches, parks, parties - dish out some stick.

Friend sent me a photo from KFC Bow London. Lockdown for over 65s would do little to cure this and these appear to be delivery drivers. How to potentially spread the virus in one easy lesson. 

To be fair most have covered their face albeit with a crash helmet! Personally I wouldn’t trust a Food delivery service in normal time’s let alone during an epidemic. 

[Rewulf]

47 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Friend sent me a photo from KFC Bow London. Lockdown for over 65s would do little to cure this and these appear to be delivery drivers. How to potentially spread the virus in one easy lesson. 

Looking at the demographic there, its really hard to understand why it affects BAME people more than none BAME 

[Newbie to this]

4 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Looking at the demographic there, its really hard to understand why it affects BAME people more than none BAME 

I thought this was already settled. The virus is racist right 

[toontastic]

2 hours ago, Deker said:

That's a point often overlooked, my missus mentioned a father and son in a care home she looks after, son is mid 50's, dad is 80's - the son has had it worse than the father

 

My partner says it is truly heart breaking seeing someone so young being visited by elderly parents.

[Rewulf]

15 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

I thought this was already settled. The virus is racist right 

Unless you are female and Chinese, this being the least likely  demographic to die from it, strange that 

[Gordon R]

Quote

Looking at the demographic there, its really hard to understand why it affects BAME people more than none BAME 

I am sure that there are many other examples not involving BAME, but given their apparently decreased immunity, you might think they would be a little more careful. Stupidity is never restricted to one race / group.

[SpringDon]

3 hours ago, henry d said:

... and don't forget you are just a car crash or other disabling accident from going from über to ünter, careful what you wish for.

I like that..

 

[grrclark]

4 hours ago, Smokersmith said:

Repeated as people seem to be missing this.

You ought to repeat it more often.

Despite what the statistics may show as relative mortality, etc the absolute practical reality was that at the start of lockdown the wave of warm bodies arriving in hospitals was right on the cusp of overwhelming resource.  This was admittedly limited to London in the main, but had no lockdown been in place it would have been a similar situation all across the UK.

The recent documentary from the Royal Free hospital was insightful in showing that and gave a fly on the wall insight for those of us fortunate enough not to have first hand insight into those critical care settings.

The issue is not so much about those who might die early, but the ability of our infrastructure to cope with an unthrottled demand on critical care.

[Raja Clavata]

					14th Apr	21st Apr	28th Apr	5th May	12th May
Cumulative # of patients testing +ve					990	1204	1323	1390	1446
# of announced deaths (having tested +ve)					135	204	326	354	384
Current # of inpatients					644	596	669	665	649
Current # in critical care (capacity 90)					74	68	61	56	51
# critical care patients on vent					36	51	38	41	33

The above are the figures for my local NHS trust which covers two hospital across two London Boroughs, there are ~257k residents in my home Borough, no idea on the other one covered by the trust.

Whilst it hasn't been a walk in the park by any stretch of imagination, they always had at least 17% spare capacity in ICU.

16 minutes ago, grrclark said:

The issue is not so much about those who might die early, but the ability of our infrastructure to cope with an unthrottled demand on critical care.

Absolutely.

[Mungler]

9 hours ago, Old farrier said:

I assume from your posts that you have age and lack of health issues on your side 🤭

when people realise that the money isn’t real anymore it’s just a number on the screen then they will stop worrying about it 

a alternative view 

how about all the non essential workers going back to work and it won’t matter if they catch it that should help with the heard immunity as long as they build up a immunity that is 🤔

On the contrary, I’m a fat asthmatic. I’m not suggesting anyone volunteer to kill themselves. This is a contagious disease and it’s within our own powers to stop its transmission - I don’t need a government to tell me to wash my hands or distance etc.

I’m a fan of numbers, and whether the data is completely accurate or not the statistical analysis from any country is clear - if you’re over 70 and in not great shape then you are unfortunately in the virus sweet spot. That’s a fact, that’s not ageist etc.

Let me try this 😆 :

Our spaniel is over 13 years old, grey face, deaf as a post,  doesn’t like to go out any more, a bit of a liability with guests, a digestion set to blend, lumps all over her and proper creaky in the morning. Do I think she enjoys life? Yes, she likes to eat what she can steal and she likes very long naps in the sun which is why we pay extra for the special mail order food and get her the expensive heart pills the vet suggested. However, if the vet at the next visit said ‘she needs an operation and it’s £5,000.....

[Raja Clavata]

11 hours ago, Mungler said:

On the contrary, I’m a fat asthmatic. I’m not suggesting anyone volunteer to kill themselves. This is a contagious disease and it’s within our own powers to stop its transmission - I don’t need a government to tell me to wash my hands or distance etc.

I did chuckle to myself when I read the original assumption 😉