Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine.

[Vince Green]

Its hard to see how this will end. Russia cant withdraw and they cant be seen to lose. Its not in their political DNA. 

[ditchman]

1 hour ago, Vince Green said:

Its hard to see how this will end. Russia cant withdraw and they cant be seen to lose. Its not in their political DNA. 

as i said previously...........the russian people (or most of them)...are totally under the heel of putin......they are frit (norfolk saying).........i think change will come from without the USSR........Belarus.....i think the leadership is fragile and the people there are not as subjugated as russia...i think a regime change will come from there.....which will put emmense pressure on the russian leadership which might be the catalist for insurrection and change.....

these are my thoughts only...

what i will say is that.........if this happens and a new (sensible) administration comes to pass in russia........i see a very bright future for europe and the world......

Edited May 7, 2022 by ditchman

[Vince Green]

45 minutes ago, ditchman said:

 

what i will say is that.........if this happens and a new (sensible) administration comes to pass in russia........i see a very bright future for europe and the world......

The trouble with that theory, nice as it sounds, is that the political machinery in Russia doesn't allow sensible people to get close enough to mount an insurrection. 

The only people that could do it would be from Putin's immediate inner circle and they are all Putin clones in terms of ideology. The State controls the press, the police and the army. There is no way it could ever happen, they don't have free and fair elections.

The best outcome would be if Putin died, then his successor would at least be able to pretend to be more reasonable.  

 

Victory Day parade: Moscow readies itself and turns up rhetoric - BBC News

Edited May 7, 2022 by Vince Green

[ditchman]

1 hour ago, Vince Green said:

The trouble with that theory, nice as it sounds, is that the political machinery in Russia doesn't allow sensible people to get close enough to mount an insurrection. 

The only people that could do it would be from Putin's immediate inner circle and they are all Putin clones in terms of ideology. The State controls the press, the police and the army. There is no way it could ever happen, they don't have free and fair elections.

The best outcome would be if Putin died, then his successor would at least be able to pretend to be more reasonable.  

 

Victory Day parade: Moscow readies itself and turns up rhetoric - BBC News

just because it hasnt happened to date in their history ...it dosnt mean it wont happen...the platform is different now...media connnectivity ...information........i know it is severly suppressed ......

you can keep some of the people in the dark all of the time ...but you cant keep all of the people in the dark all of the time.................the politicle class of russia is just so yesterday..........

it will happen .....but when ?...that is the real question

[Rewulf]

5 hours ago, Smokersmith said:

How would negotiation have played out? Who knows , no one ever tried ?

Would he stop with the Donbas? Again, we'll never know, maybe ?

Not likely, and not an option.

And *** would that be an acceptable outcome? It’s not OK to bully nations. No its not , acceptable outcome ? Ill tackle that shortly.
But first we need to practice what we preach , the US regularly bullies nations , we have their pet poodle Saudis, killing people by the thousand in Yemen as we speak, where is the outrage ?

 I think the threads of truth you pursue are leading you away from the bigger picture.

Personally , I think I do see the bigger picture , you talk of outcomes, there are multiple paths to how this ends , and more importantly, the landscape afterwards.
Ill give a few examples.
1. Putin is removed (one way or another) a less aggressive leader takes over , maybe more pro west, the troops withdraw, give back ALL territory including Crimea, pay reparations they can ill afford, but are 'allowed' to trade in world markets again, possible paths include a booming Russia that could become a more normal country.
It could also go the way of Germany after WW1 , go into deep recession , with an angry populace looking to blame someone...

2. Putin stays in power , or is succeeded by someone similar or worse, they consolidate their gains in Ukraine, and we end up with a Iron curtain type scenario, (again). Russia re arms, ignores all nuclear treaties, creates fortress Russia with multiple anti ballistic missile systems, NATO counters with rearmament too.
Russias trade isolation deepens , its pushed into the arms of China, who decide that NATO is a threat, and a military alliance is needed with all friendly nations against them.
They begin , with Russian assistance, turning other Asiatic countries against NATO , Taiwan is invaded, NATO and the US are unable to project their influence powerfully enough in this area to stop them, because they have invested so heavily in defending against the Russian threat.

A nuclear exchange is never far away, and both sides new hypersonic weapons , make both believe they can win.

In essence we end up back in the cold war , because neither side will consider de escalation, this in my opinion, and  due to  recent actions , is the far more likely scenario.

 

4 hours ago, Mungler said:

‘Proxy war’ is an emotive label freely thrown around. Look beyond the label and to what is actually happening.

It doesnt matter how emotive it is, 10 years ago anyone using the term got called a conspiracy theorist, now days , its freely used , because its recognised its freely practiced.
When the victim nation, in this case Ukraine , has the US/NATO speaking on its behalf (by proxy) , and threatening Russia, then its pretty surely a proxy conflict.

4 hours ago, Mungler said:

The Ukraine has been invaded and they have asked for help to repel an invasion. That request for help includes financial, military and medical assistance. To my mind, the provision of that assistance is not the commission of a ‘proxy war’.

Indeed, explain to me how it is a proxy war without overlooking the invasion and the repeated requests for help from the Ukraine?

We arent at loggerheads on this, Ukraine got invaded , its unjustifiable, and we should help them.
But instead of trying to stop the invasion before it happened, we fed into the rhetoric with aggressive talk, and thousands of tonnes of weapons, was that the only option ?

Where was the offer of a peace keeping force for Donbass ?
Where was the UN resolutions to try and deter Russia.
Up until the day of invasion, the Ukrainians were shelling Donbass, whilst 100000 Russian soldiers sat on the border, who gave the order to continue, with Russia looking at any excuse ?
Zelensky was fairly mild in the early days, he tried very hard to bring the Ukrainian Donbass militias into line, but they just ignored him, yet someone kept rearming them, paying them, and replacing those lost , the ranks were swelled with foreign mercs, who payed them ?
8 years they had to find a solution , or put a buffer zone in , something !
No one tried.

4 hours ago, Mungler said:

If you think Putin wants to negotiate, you are totally deluded. There is zero evidence to support any Russian willingness to ‘negotiate’ and by that you have to look to the definition of negotiate;  no doubt if the Russians are given everything they ask for then whilst ‘peace’ appears remote there could be a cessation of military action. That however is not negotiation, it is capitulation and there is a massive difference, and unsurprisingly the Ukrainians (who still have a say in this) are not that keen on capitulation or Russian occupation.

Your argument appears to be that Ukraine should just lay down to a superior aggressing force for no better reason than the aggressing force is superior and they should save their country from being levelled (the ‘French way’). Again, this overlooks that the Ukrainians have a say in this and they have said ‘no’ to invasion and occupation and they have asked the rest of the free world for help, and that help has been provided. 

I have a natural reluctance negotiating with an aggressing force in that it rewards the bully. Provided that nut job Putin is kept away from the red button, this war will keep Russia stuck in the mud, burning money and resources and that will effect mother Russia and is likely to promote some form of regime change although I accept there is a real chance Putin will be replaced by someone worse.

Like Ive said previously, this plays out perfectly for US aims , it removes them from the western world stage as a petro power, an aim long hoped for by the US.

It has shattered their reputation as a conventional military power, cast doubt on their ability to wage nuclear war.
Russian arms sales will suffer, as the poor performance against modern western weaponry is painfully demonstrated.

Their ability to trade in ANYTHING has been damaged, reputation, even in these times is important , and that too , is in tatters.

So where do they go , the west is now blocked to them, but also any treaties , rules they had to abide by , are also gone.
They will go East and South, deeper ties with China , Iran, NK, some African countries.
We have backed the rat into a corner, its only path is attack.

Dont be surprised if some of the more dangerous ME countries start getting advanced Russian weapons, how will Saudi feel if the Houthis get hold of some Russian SAMS, or NK gets its nukes polished up a bit by China.

Pandoras box is a terrible cliche, but we have set out on a very unpredictable path here, 'helping' Ukraine is a good and noble cause, but what we have done is declare Russia as our enemy again, when there was 30 years of uneasy peace.
Dangerous days ahead Im afraid.

[Vince Green]

3 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Dangerous days ahead Im afraid.

Of that, I am certain. Most people don't see that yet, its still a distant war in a far off land to them

[Mungler]

37 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

 

It doesnt matter how emotive it is, 10 years ago anyone using the term got called a conspiracy theorist, now days , its freely used , because its recognised its freely practiced.
When the victim nation, in this case Ukraine , has the US/NATO speaking on its behalf (by proxy) , and threatening Russia, then its pretty surely a proxy conflict.

We arent at loggerheads on this, Ukraine got invaded , its unjustifiable, and we should help them.
But instead of trying to stop the invasion before it happened, we fed into the rhetoric with aggressive talk, and thousands of tonnes of weapons, was that the only option ?

Where was the offer of a peace keeping force for Donbass ?
Where was the UN resolutions to try and deter Russia.
Up until the day of invasion, the Ukrainians were shelling Donbass, whilst 100000 Russian soldiers sat on the border, who gave the order to continue, with Russia looking at any excuse ?
Zelensky was fairly mild in the early days, he tried very hard to bring the Ukrainian Donbass militias into line, but they just ignored him, yet someone kept rearming them, paying them, and replacing those lost , the ranks were swelled with foreign mercs, who payed them ?
8 years they had to find a solution , or put a buffer zone in , something !
No one tried.

Like Ive said previously, this plays out perfectly for US aims , it removes them from the western world stage as a petro power, an aim long hoped for by the US.

It has shattered their reputation as a conventional military power, cast doubt on their ability to wage nuclear war.
Russian arms sales will suffer, as the poor performance against modern western weaponry is painfully demonstrated.

Their ability to trade in ANYTHING has been damaged, reputation, even in these times is important , and that too , is in tatters.

So where do they go , the west is now blocked to them, but also any treaties , rules they had to abide by , are also gone.
They will go East and South, deeper ties with China , Iran, NK, some African countries.
We have backed the rat into a corner, its only path is attack.

Dont be surprised if some of the more dangerous ME countries start getting advanced Russian weapons, how will Saudi feel if the Houthis get hold of some Russian SAMS, or NK gets its nukes polished up a bit by China.

Pandoras box is a terrible cliche, but we have set out on a very unpredictable path here, 'helping' Ukraine is a good and noble cause, but what we have done is declare Russia as our enemy again, when there was 30 years of uneasy peace.
Dangerous days ahead Im afraid.

There are parallels here with Hitler (another madman). I know it’s Godwin’s law…. but you can’t negotiate or appease lunatics, and here, all anyone can do is kick the proverbial can down the road - that means letting Putin have Ukraine (and the next Country on his list, and so on).

There is no NATO based justification for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine - when you break it down it’s total nonsense and the Russian story wanders incomprehensibly.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s a disaster waiting to happen but I am at relative ease here in the same way when I get on an aeroplane because of it all goes South, there’s nothing anyone here can do.

However, I will draw the line at the BS around this being a result of NATO or that we should have tried harder with negotiations - that is apologist dreamy nonsense and even if there were options they all lead to appeasement, 90% of the Ukrainian population being displaced / murdered and the can getting kicked down the road with the wider Putin problem unresolved.

NATO is never going to be the one to launch a preemptive strike and so in the meantime all we can do is support and supply Ukraine and wait and see.

[ordnance]

On 07/05/2022 at 10:10, Vince Green said:

Its hard to see how this will end. Russia cant withdraw and they cant be seen to lose. Its not in their political DNA. 

They did In Afghanistan.

[Vince Green]

17 minutes ago, ordnance said:

They did In Afghanistan.

Gorbichov did it as soon as he got into power, it was part of his election pledge . He also introduced Glasnost and Perisroika. (freedom of information and freedom of the press)

Gorbichov was a great politician and moderniser but everything he achieved has been reversed (and more) by Putin 

[oldypigeonpopper]

Hello, I still cannot believe that some  Russians still think a lot of destruction and deaths in Ukraine is fake news or part of the Ukraine military strategy , sky news this morning, 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

27 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, I still cannot believe that some  Russians still think a lot of destruction and deaths in Ukraine is fake news or part of the Ukraine military strategy , sky news this morning, 

Why can't you believe that they are believing everything that Putin and his state controlled media are telling them?

[oldypigeonpopper]

5 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Why can't you believe that they are believing everything that Putin and his state controlled media are telling them?

I do but I still find it difficult to believe that there must be many many Russian citizens know the truth, those living in other counties do not seem to speak out on TV ?

[old'un]

10 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

I do but I still find it difficult to believe that there must be many many Russian citizens know the truth, those living in other counties do not seem to speak out on TV ?

And why do you think that most are afraid to speak out?

[Raja Clavata]

On 06/05/2022 at 21:35, ordnance said:

A Muslin outsider from Chechnya I don't think so, all he is to the Russian military and Putin is a useful idiot. 

Fair enough, I'm not an expert, was just stating an opinion. 

[Mungler]

59 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

Hello, I still cannot believe that some  Russians still think a lot of destruction and deaths in Ukraine is fake news or part of the Ukraine military strategy , sky news this morning, 

It appears that those under the age of 40 (and who have only ever really known life without a wall / Cold War) have been exposed to western freedoms and are less likely to go along with Putin’s regime and propaganda. But then comes the nationalist stirring of the pot, and disaffected youth with no prospects become susceptible to extremes. It’s a heady mix underscored with a national identity of strong man fighting and drinking.

When looking at other attempts at regime change it normally lead by the educated young / students who have ideas for their future that stretch beyond those imposed by an older world incumbent regime.

If the young of Russia aspire to wrestling bears and heavy drinking then if Putin is knocked off his perch, it’s not like a liberal breath of fresh air is coming over the horizon.

[Mungler]

On 07/05/2022 at 13:33, Rewulf said:

 

It doesnt matter how emotive it is, 10 years ago anyone using the term got called a conspiracy theorist, now days , its freely used , because its recognised its freely practiced.
When the victim nation, in this case Ukraine , has the US/NATO speaking on its behalf (by proxy) , and threatening Russia, then its pretty surely a proxy conflict.

We arent at loggerheads on this, Ukraine got invaded , its unjustifiable, and we should help them.
But instead of trying to stop the invasion before it happened, we fed into the rhetoric with aggressive talk, and thousands of tonnes of weapons, was that the only option ?

Where was the offer of a peace keeping force for Donbass ?
Where was the UN resolutions to try and deter Russia.
Up until the day of invasion, the Ukrainians were shelling Donbass, whilst 100000 Russian soldiers sat on the border, who gave the order to continue, with Russia looking at any excuse ?
Zelensky was fairly mild in the early days, he tried very hard to bring the Ukrainian Donbass militias into line, but they just ignored him, yet someone kept rearming them, paying them, and replacing those lost , the ranks were swelled with foreign mercs, who payed them ?
8 years they had to find a solution , or put a buffer zone in , something !
No one tried.

Like Ive said previously, this plays out perfectly for US aims , it removes them from the western world stage as a petro power, an aim long hoped for by the US.

It has shattered their reputation as a conventional military power, cast doubt on their ability to wage nuclear war.
Russian arms sales will suffer, as the poor performance against modern western weaponry is painfully demonstrated.

Their ability to trade in ANYTHING has been damaged, reputation, even in these times is important , and that too , is in tatters.

So where do they go , the west is now blocked to them, but also any treaties , rules they had to abide by , are also gone.
They will go East and South, deeper ties with China , Iran, NK, some African countries.
We have backed the rat into a corner, its only path is attack.

Dont be surprised if some of the more dangerous ME countries start getting advanced Russian weapons, how will Saudi feel if the Houthis get hold of some Russian SAMS, or NK gets its nukes polished up a bit by China.

Pandoras box is a terrible cliche, but we have set out on a very unpredictable path here, 'helping' Ukraine is a good and noble cause, but what we have done is declare Russia as our enemy again, when there was 30 years of uneasy peace.
Dangerous days ahead Im afraid.

Just seen Putin’s most recent speech on the news today - the ‘invasion’ of Ukraine (no longer a special military operation to combat Nazis eh?) was because of a fear of NATO invasion. This nut job is making it up as he goes along. Following on, what negotiations do you envisage flow from this and which don’t result in a capitulation (and kicking the nut job can down the road etc).

The only worry is if the Russian population. are that brainwashed to think NATO either had the capability or desire to even consider ‘invading’ Russia. 

I think his speech is useful because it puts the RT loving apologists back in their box. 

[ditchman]

1 hour ago, Mungler said:

It appears that those under the age of 40 (and who have only ever really known life without a wall / Cold War) have been exposed to western freedoms and are less likely to go along with Putin’s regime and propaganda. But then comes the nationalist stirring of the pot, and disaffected youth with no prospects become susceptible to extremes. It’s a heady mix underscored with a national identity of strong man fighting and drinking.

When looking at other attempts at regime change it normally lead by the educated young / students who have ideas for their future that stretch beyond those imposed by an older world incumbent regime.

If the young of Russia aspire to wrestling bears and heavy drinking then if Putin is knocked off his perch, it’s not like a liberal breath of fresh air is coming over the horizon.

they are becoming very aware that old men make war and young people die in them........

[oowee]

1 hour ago, ditchman said:

they are becoming very aware that old men make war and young people die in them........

So very true and under pinned by macho talk of grit and heroism. 

[Walker570]

Superb speech by the Ukrainian President on youtube this morning. In Ukrainian but has English sub titles. Puts in in a nutshell.

Sorry I haven't a clue how to put a link on.

[Rewulf]

3 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

Superb speech by the Ukrainian President on youtube this morning. In Ukrainian but has English sub titles. Puts in in a nutshell.

Sorry I haven't a clue how to put a link on.

Do you mean this one ?

 

[Walker570]

No, just managed to find it again

Zelensky releases video on day of rememberance .... We hear never again differently

That is the title and should bring it up.

[Rewulf]

2 hours ago, Mungler said:

Just seen Putin’s most recent speech on the news today - the ‘invasion’ of Ukraine (no longer a special military operation to combat Nazis eh?) was because of a fear of NATO invasion. This nut job is making it up as he goes along. Following on, what negotiations do you envisage flow from this and which don’t result in a capitulation (and kicking the nut job can down the road etc).

I would say ANY negotiation is better than none.
The alternative is attrition or escalation, and despite Zelenskys tough man speech today, either option involves more destruction and loss of life in Ukraine, a price NATO and the now militarised EU is happy to pay.

2 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

No, just managed to find it again

Zelensky releases video on day of rememberance .... We hear never again differently

That is the title and should bring it up.

 

[Walker570]

....militarised EU???? Are you kidding me?  They can't agree as to what tea bags to use.  Pathetic bunch of creeps sucking on the hard earned cash of the people of Europe.  

[Rewulf]

1 hour ago, Walker570 said:

militarised EU???? Are you kidding me? 

What they think they are, and what they really are , are two different things  !

The fact that they are giving instructions to nations militaries, and 'authorising' weapons sales, lead me to the comment.
They also claim to be a 'partner' of NATO, so who knows what they think they are ?

From a trade agreement to an economic, then political entity, now a military one , you know what the next progression will be , based on 'need' against the Russian threat....

 

[Walker570]

They are on the skids. The sooner the better.