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Predictions for EU result


chrisjh
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...I'll console myself that the eu's days are numbered...

History suggests that groups of nations rarely stick together for more than a few decades:

Austria-Hungary 51 years (1867-1918)

Czechoslovakia 75 years (1918-1993)

Yugoslavia 72 years (1918-1990)

USSR 74 years (1917-1991)

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unfortunately after hearing some ridiculous reasons some people want to stay (not on here) I think the vote will be in, seriously I've heard people voting in so their trips to Benidorm won't be affected or the bike parts they want may be more expensive :/

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I think we'll remain but hopefully I'm wrong.

I'll console myself that the eu's days are numbered and that when it all goes tits up I can turn to folk and say 'told you so'.

 

Pretty much this.

But something is telling me ,and I hope,that the polls are wrong.

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I dont know how it is going to go.

 

I've been watching the threads on this topic and it has been interesting, because I have a broad spread of friends (in political terms) on social media, and I've seen the remainers talking to other remainers about how they will win, and leavers talking to leavers saying the same thing. This reminds me of something I saw at the last GE, where the Labour voters on my friends lists, who I find tend to be more politically vocal, allowed themself to fall into the confirmation bias trap - believing that because everyone they agreed with and listened to was right, and everyone who they didnt agree with was an idiot and therefore wrong. This in turn led them to think there was far more support for their position than there actually was and they were stunned when a Cons majority was returned.

 

I cant help but wonder if the same isnt happening on PW - there's pretty much unanimity on here in favour of leave, so we could be getting a very skewed idea of the way things will go if you just went by what is being said on here.

 

As an aside, it has been really disappointing to see that where anyone who has tried (and well done to those who have) to constructively express a different opinion, they have almost always had words put in their mouths, been shouted down and in some cases abused. That reflects badly on us as a group, and very badly on those responsible.

 

For my part, I hope that the vote will be out, but I genuinely have no idea how it will go.

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I'm a Vote in candidate (sorry guys). Just dont think we as a country can afford to take the gamble of leaving. Personally I think that for all the talk of how the country will vote out, on the day the Remain votes will win. 60/40 ish Remain.

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I'm a Vote in candidate (sorry guys). Just dont think we as a country can afford to take the gamble of leaving.

So.....reading between the lines, what you're saying is that you are a lily-livered, bleeding-heart liberal and a sandal-wearing, Green voting, hippy that hates Britain, and kills puppies for fun? And you use snap caps.

 

 

Sorry Zapp... ;)

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I dont know how it is going to go.

 

I've been watching the threads on this topic and it has been interesting, because I have a broad spread of friends (in political terms) on social media, and I've seen the remainers talking to other remainers about how they will win, and leavers talking to leavers saying the same thing. This reminds me of something I saw at the last GE, where the Labour voters on my friends lists, who I find tend to be more politically vocal, allowed themself to fall into the confirmation bias trap - believing that because everyone they agreed with and listened to was right, and everyone who they didnt agree with was an idiot and therefore wrong. This in turn led them to think there was far more support for their position than there actually was and they were stunned when a Cons majority was returned.

 

I cant help but wonder if the same isnt happening on PW - there's pretty much unanimity on here in favour of leave, so we could be getting a very skewed idea of the way things will go if you just went by what is being said on here.

 

As an aside, it has been really disappointing to see that where anyone who has tried (and well done to those who have) to constructively express a different opinion, they have almost always had words put in their mouths, been shouted down and in some cases abused. That reflects badly on us as a group, and very badly on those responsible.

 

For my part, I hope that the vote will be out, but I genuinely have no idea how it will go.

 

 

I don't find forums to be useful for predictions, the sheer nature of the forums brings together like minded individuals (in general) so I imagine different forums have a very different predictions (kind of like going onto a football club forum and polling who their favourite team is)

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It's going to rain all day tomorrow. The determined oldies will get their boots and brollies out and go and vote. The younger generation will be watching the Glastonbury mud bath on their puters and won't want to be going out and getting wet.

I predict the weather gods are on the side of leave.

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History suggests that groups of nations rarely stick together for more than a few decades:

Austria-Hungary 51 years (1867-1918)

Czechoslovakia 75 years (1918-1993)

Yugoslavia 72 years (1918-1990)

USSR 74 years (1917-1991)

 

I'd recommend reading Norman Davies' excellent heavyweight historical work: 'Vanished Kingdoms,The History of half forgotten Europe.'

 

I read this some years back and I'd say the demise of the EU is all but certain, you can't force people together against their will. I wouldn't want to be in it when it falls apart. This is what I predict the result will be.

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I genuinely don't know either, my fear is that it will be a very narrow win for remain.

 

My preference would be for a significant majority to decide one way or the other, idealy out.

 

If it is very narrow I think it will cause huge resentment and acrimony, not unlike what we have in parts of Scotland.

 

Zapp's point is very valid, we do tend to congregate with like minded souls and also vastly underestimate the range and strength of feeling amongst the wider populace. We also tend to think that because we know one or two hundred people that is somehow representative. It isn't.

 

So fear a narrow vote to remain and hope for a chunky vote to leave.

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The most interesting discussion on the subject I have heard was on Radio 4 the other week, when a clever man (didn't get his name) spoke about the "Bungee effect", this is where a voter goes into the box with a "risky" intention, but changes their mind at the last moment.

He claimed at the last General Election many potential UKIP voters did this and ended up voting Conservative.

I know a lot of people that did this and it makes me wonder how many will do the same in the Referendum.

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A few comments about the vote being rigged

 

If the way the votes are be counted in this referendum will be the same as local elections then the public can be present, so ask when placing your vote!

You may be able to watch the counting process.

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