Future house prices

[figgy]

I think any dip will be tempory and soon bounce back. Same with the stock markets.

[oldypigeonpopper]

hello, a lot of us remember the crash in the early 1980s that took years to recover, a lot of people went in negative equity, i do hope it will not be the same in 2020 more so with what the UK citizens are going through with this epidemic  

[Lloyd90]

Question for you ... why did the crash in the 1930’s and late 1980’s come about? 
 

Because if it wasn’t for this virus, we would have a crash, so as soon as the virus is over (if ever) ... confidence in the market going up may surge back in... along with a lot of people expecting to cash in on the market going back up. 

[mel b3]

Am I the only one that doesn't give a rats bum what my house is worth ?.

I'll just be happy if the family and me make it through ,  and we still have a roof over our heads👍.

[bavarianbrit]

Nice to leave something to the grandkids, my gran bought me a £500 mini when I hit 17 that gave me the kick start in my life.

[blackbird]

12 hours ago, figgy said:

I think any dip will be tempory and soon bounce back. Same with the stock markets.

I think the same we always bounce back.

[Hamster]

The rich own tens of thousands of properties all over the country especially London, there will be a detectable dip but they won’t allow it to last long and that will eventually re-stabilise prices, bricks and mortar will always work out in the end. I hope.  

[AVB]

People seem to be under the impression that markets (housing, stock etc) can be manipulated upwards and if certain people want them to rise they can make it happen.  They can’t. It is all driven by confidence and buyers. If people are confident afterward and go on a buying spree then yes prices will recover. However, there is a bigger chance that people stop spending, either because of fear or lack of disposable income (and with many millions of people in the U.K. going to be unemployed very likely) and then you are in the dangerous territory of deflation. 

The government can only do so much to stimulate spending, cutting interest rates (already at rock bottom) or cutting taxes (VAT, income, Corporation) but that impacts revenues to pay for vital services. 

So it’s all down to us ultimately. 

Yes we will bounce back but but over what timeframe. One, five, ten years? The Great Depression lasted 10 years. Many reasons why this might be different, early government intervention being one but there are still a lot of unknowns. 

[loriusgarrulus]

5 hours ago, mel b3 said:

Am I the only one that doesn't give a rats bum what my house is worth ?.

I'll just be happy if the family and me make it through ,  and we still have a roof over our heads👍.

Me too. Haven't got a clue what it's worth. Its paid for and a roof over our heads. 👍

[Mice!]

6 hours ago, mel b3 said:

Am I the only one that doesn't give a rats bum what my house is worth ?.

I'll just be happy if the family and me make it through ,  and we still have a roof over our heads👍.

Your not mate no, house prices have been far to high for a long time. 

20 minutes ago, AVB said:

People seem to be under the impression that markets (housing, stock etc) can be manipulated upwards and if certain people want them to rise they can make it happen.  

Someone must be able too, house prices almost doubled around 2002 ish, the only people who benefit are the banks and Government, estate agents get more commission. Everyone was borrowing more money to buy, which obviously means bigger mortgages. 

[Vince Green]

There is no such thing as money, it doesn't really exist. The idea that a piece of paper is worth twenty quid or a house is worth two hundred grand only works as long as every body believes it.

As soon as people start to have doubts it all falls apart. Its all monopoly money these days

 

[Lloyd90]

42 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

There is no such thing as money, it doesn't really exist. The idea that a piece of paper is worth twenty quid or a house is worth two hundred grand only works as long as every body believes it.

As soon as people start to have doubts it all falls apart. Its all monopoly money these days

 

 

I'll tell that to the man on the till at the super market later, when I pay him in lego blocks  

7 hours ago, mel b3 said:

Am I the only one that doesn't give a rats bum what my house is worth ?.

I'll just be happy if the family and me make it through ,  and we still have a roof over our heads👍.

 

Depends, is your house paid for? Cos many of us younger folk have big mortgages just to get on the ladder. 

Everyone wants to come out of this, but would still like to come out without being in awful positions as well. 

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Mice! said:

Your not mate no, house prices have been far to high for a long time. 

Someone must be able too, house prices almost doubled around 2002 ish, the only people who benefit are the banks and Government, estate agents get more commission. Everyone was borrowing more money to buy, which obviously means bigger mortgages. 

The reason the house prices went up was because of a surplus of buyers driven by availability of credit. It is simple supply and demand. Of course estate agents want you to pay more for a house but a house is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. 

[henry d]

13 hours ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, a lot of us remember the crash in the early 1980s that took years to recover, a lot of people went in negative equity, i do hope it will not be the same in 2020 more so with what the UK citizens are going through with this epidemic  

Late 80's, early 80's I just stepped on the ladder and got an enormous amount of money from 2 moves. First was almost double what we paid for it in just 2 years the second a 40% increase in 3 years. All just fluff and air, as the prices stagnated or dropped just as fast into the early mid 90's

[buze]

There might be a surplus of buyers as well soon enough. When all the expats dump their property in Spain/Portugal/France to try to move back here after having been stuck away from the home country in sometime, medical deserts...

[blackbird]

22 minutes ago, buze said:

There might be a surplus of buyers as well soon enough. When all the expats dump their property in Spain/Portugal/France to try to move back here after having been stuck away from the home country in sometime, medical deserts...

I just can’t see that happening, once things go back to normal life will just resume. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by blackbird

[udderlyoffroad]

2 hours ago, loriusgarrulus said:

Me too. Haven't got a clue what it's worth. Its paid for and a roof over our heads. 👍

The reason I give a rodent's rectum is because this isn't my "forever house" and I have no wish to raise any future kids in the drug-addled cack-hole that is suburbia in Bristol.  Stepping stones.  I don't ask for much, just few acres to patrol with the dog and be able to shout "get orrrf my land"

[mel b3]

1 hour ago, Lloyd90 said:

 

I'll tell that to the man on the till at the super market later, when I pay him in lego blocks  

 

Depends, is your house paid for? Cos many of us younger folk have big mortgages just to get on the ladder. 

Everyone wants to come out of this, but would still like to come out without being in awful positions as well. 

My house was paid for about 15 years ago . The value of it is pretty irrelevant(to me anyway), the only thing of any importance,  is having somewhere for my family to live.

As long as you still have your job (and many won't be that lucky), you'll be tickety boo👍.

18 minutes ago, udderlyoffroad said:

The reason I give a rodent's rectum is because this isn't my "forever house" and I have no wish to raise any future kids in the drug-addled cack-hole that is suburbia in Bristol.  Stepping stones.  I don't ask for much, just few acres to patrol with the dog and be able to shout "get orrrf my land"

You paint such a wonderful picture of Bristol 😅. 

Be patient,  you'll get your few acres . I'm quite the opposite with my land , I'll invite anybody in for a look 😆

[oowee]

2 hours ago, udderlyoffroad said:

The reason I give a rodent's rectum is because this isn't my "forever house" and I have no wish to raise any future kids in the drug-addled cack-hole that is suburbia in Bristol.  Stepping stones.  I don't ask for much, just few acres to patrol with the dog and be able to shout "get orrrf my land"

Dont do it. We country folk dont need any more city dwellers out here.   I love Bristol but have mostly missed the drug addled cack-holes 😂 I suspect that even these are on the rise given the way prices have moved here.

The best way to pay for houses is to get a decent rate of inflation so the real value of your mortgage is reduced. 

I always wanted a lage garden till I had to cut the grass. Main mower is in the workshop which has closed. Its taking me about 18 hours a week to cut, with just the HRX 😞 Its killing me.

 

[Mungler]

3 minutes ago, oowee said:

The best way to pay for houses is to get a decent rate of inflation so the real value of your mortgage is reduced. 

Indeed, time is the answer. Who wouldn’t go back in time and buy and keep their first house / property? In reality most people don’t get to keep hold of houses because they need the equity for the next move / bump up the ladder.

As has been said, property prices are a heady mix of supply, demand, interest rates, the availability of borrowing and employment. 

Over time, demand will outstrip supply, unless a pandemic or World war irons out a large (and diverse chunk of population). Everything else can change - interest rates, availability of borrowing and employment.

The last RICS stats I saw said we needed to be building 350,000 units a year to keep pace with demand and we we’re looking at circa 150,000 being built with a year on year shortage in the hundreds of thousands. 

Where we currently are will be a blip. The old money / those will access to borrowing will start hoovering up repos and cheap low maintenance renters. We will blink, 10 years will go by and as we do now we’ll be saying we wish we bought back in 2008. People always need somewhere to live. 
 

[Mice!]

30 minutes ago, oowee said:

always wanted a lage garden till I had to cut the grass. Main mower is in the workshop which has closed. Its taking me about 18 hours a week to cut, with just the HRX 😞 Its killing me.

Why not leave it for a while or cut paths through it, I'm sure the insects and birds will thank you. 

[oowee]

1 hour ago, Mice! said:

Why not leave it for a while or cut paths through it, I'm sure the insects and birds will thank you. 

We just said the same thing I have half an acre that is left anyway so most of the rest is going to be the same. I also have some sheep coming next week into the field so will see if I can leave them in the orchard (they may go for the trees). 

[Lloyd90]

3 hours ago, Mungler said:

Indeed, time is the answer. Who wouldn’t go back in time and buy and keep their first house / property? In reality most people don’t get to keep hold of houses because they need the equity for the next move / bump up the ladder.

As has been said, property prices are a heady mix of supply, demand, interest rates, the availability of borrowing and employment. 

Over time, demand will outstrip supply, unless a pandemic or World war irons out a large (and diverse chunk of population). Everything else can change - interest rates, availability of borrowing and employment.

The last RICS stats I saw said we needed to be building 350,000 units a year to keep pace with demand and we we’re looking at circa 150,000 being built with a year on year shortage in the hundreds of thousands. 

Where we currently are will be a blip. The old money / those will access to borrowing will start hoovering up repos and cheap low maintenance renters. We will blink, 10 years will go by and as we do now we’ll be saying we wish we bought back in 2008. People always need somewhere to live. 
 

 

Bang on. I saw in a property article today that buy to let investment firms and individuals are poised, ready to buy up cheap properties if the market crashes. They will buy them up cheap with their reserves, then rent them out as usual. 

 

 

1 hour ago, oowee said:

We just said the same thing I have half an acre that is left anyway so most of the rest is going to be the same. I also have some sheep coming next week into the field so will see if I can leave them in the orchard (they may go for the trees). 

Put some game cover crop in  

[AVB]

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) have just predicted an average 13% fall in house prices across the U.K. this year. Driven mainly by a reduction in income. 

[Munzy]

On 12/04/2020 at 11:19, Mice! said:

...house prices have been far to high for a long time.

House prices have been spot-on forever. A house, like anything else, is worth what someone is willing and able to pay. Every single house that ever sold was priced perfectly.

House prices will take a drop because of reduced demand, not because they were too high to start with. Unemployment and fear will lead to the drop in demand whilst people being forced to sell-up/repos will lead to a jump in supply which will knock down prices.

Prices will climb back up again simply because we aren’t building anywhere near enough houses for our growing population and human nature is to keep up with the Jones’. When the rebound will happen nobody can say for sure but it will, it always has throughout history.

A drop in prices will benefit those attempting to get on the ladder and those looking to expand their portfolio. A drop also won’t effect anyone who has something to sell and who will be rebuying they’ll sell their current house for less and buy their new one for less. The difference will be those who have a mortgage to settle along the way; they may need to rethink their plans.

Some will get their first house as a result of this, some will lose their house, some will buy ten more houses and others will sit in their house for the next ten years wondering what the fuss is about.

Survival is all about rolling with the punches, if you’ve got a rigid gameplan in mind and that plan didn’t factor in a coronavirus pandemic you’re going to struggle. Stay agile.