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ditchman
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oooooooooooooooooo      she is getting out of her pram a bit now....waving the big stick to hide up their mistakes

there will be teddies on the pavement and tears before bedtime...........and Macron will start complaining that the AZ vaccine gives him Diaorrea and the Les Allemands will be going over the top and saying it makes their sausages go hard

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What we are starting to see now is blind panic read this

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The vaccine fiasco will ignite a second Eurozone crisis that will bring the EU to its knees

As spring unfolds, we will see plummeting confidence in Eurozone economies and a panic in the bond markets that drives up borrowing costs

MATTHEW LYNN17 March 2021 • 3:03pm

Angela Merkel’s panel of economic advisers have cut their growth forecast for this year as the country battles to contain a third wave of Covid-19. President Macron is locking down the Ile-de-France, the powerhouse of the French economy, as hospitals are overwhelmed with patients, while the OECD has sliced its projections for the continent.

With infections and casualties plummeting in Israel, the UK, and the United States as vaccine programmes ramp up, Covid-19 is finally coming under control everywhere – except, of course, for mainland Europe. So far that has mainly been a health catastrophe, but very soon it will turn into an economic one as well. Greece sparked the first Eurozone crisis, but the vaccine debacle will ignite the second one. 

The EU was already stumbling its way from one vaccine blunder to another. It ordered too few shots, spent too little money to ensure adequate supply, put an obscure Cypriot party hack in charge of the most important government programme since World War II, and then lashed out at the companies making the vaccines in a blind panic.

Now, presumably working on the premise that once you are in a hole the only option is to keep digging, half the continent, including Germany, France and Italy, have put the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab on hold while some statistically insignificant side effects are investigated. We will find out soon enough what the cost of that is in lost lives. With infections rising, even as the spring weather arrives, and hospitals filling up again, the toll will likely be a heavy one. But very soon it will be a financial crisis as well. Here’s why. 

First, economies will remain locked down for far longer than necessary. Right now, the differences are hardly noticeable. Israel has opened up again, but few other countries have managed to do so. Over the next few weeks, however, that will start to change, and dramatically so. As the UK and the United States cruise past 60 to 70 per cent vaccination levels, shops, restaurants and gyms will be reopening. Their economies will be growing in the 7-8 per cent range compared to zero in the EU. That is a vast gulf. At the same time, trashing property rights, and arbitrarily seizing vaccine production plants, will make it virtually impossible for multi-nationals to invest in the zone.

Next, borrowing will soar. Across Europe, huge, expensive support measures will have to remain in place, potentially for months, while they are lifted elsewhere. At the same time, tax revenues will remain depressed (closed restaurants don’t generate a lot of revenue). Budget deficits of close on 10 per cent of GDP will roll on and on. That might not matter a lot for Germany, but it does for Italy and France, two of the most heavily indebted countries in the world (they rank in third and fourth place respectively measured by the total amount owed). How much debt is too much? No one really knows, until the markets suddenly decide a threshold has been reached. Once that line is crossed, however, chaos is unleashed. 

Finally, muddled vaccine roll-outs will create a political backlash. We are already seeing that in Germany. Angela Merkel was always the world’s most over-rated leader, but her chronic caution, indecision and dithering, along with her personal responsibility for putting her inept "mini-mutti", Ursula von der Leyen, at the top of the EU, will bring her long reign to an ignominious close, as well as potentially handing power to the first Green leader of a major economy (although, in consolation, Robert Habeck is probably more of a "conservative" than the CDU leader ever was).

President Macron is facing a tight presidential contest next year, amid a deepening crisis, while across the border in Italy it is hard to see the point of having an unelected technocrat as Prime Minister – the former ECB President Mario Draghi – if he can’t get shots into people’s arms. In truth, the Eurozone is about to enter a period of fraught political uncertainty at the very worst time.  

The net result? As the spring unfolds, we will witness plummeting confidence in Eurozone economies, and a panic in the bond markets that drives up borrowing costs. Global investors have not started to price that in yet. But as the evidence becomes unavoidable, and as the gulf in performance widens, that will change.

It was the Greek crisis that sparked the first Eurozone crisis in 2010 as a decade of incompetence and spiralling debt brought the single currency to the edge of collapse. It is now surely inevitable that the "vaccine crisis" will trigger the next act in that unresolved drama.  

Edited by Vince Green
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13 minutes ago, Gordon R said:

Vince - a detailed prediction. I was merely going to add that she is just a bit thick.

i do like her haircut tho'

23 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

 

What we are starting to see now is blind panic read this

\/ \/

 

The vaccine fiasco will ignite a second Eurozone crisis that will bring the EU to its knees

As spring unfolds, we will see plummeting confidence in Eurozone economies and a panic in the bond markets that drives up borrowing costs

MATTHEW LYNN17 March 2021 • 3:03pm

Angela Merkel’s panel of economic advisers have cut their growth forecast for this year as the country battles to contain a third wave of Covid-19. President Macron is locking down the Ile-de-France, the powerhouse of the French economy, as hospitals are overwhelmed with patients, while the OECD has sliced its projections for the continent.

With infections and casualties plummeting in Israel, the UK, and the United States as vaccine programmes ramp up, Covid-19 is finally coming under control everywhere – except, of course, for mainland Europe. So far that has mainly been a health catastrophe, but very soon it will turn into an economic one as well. Greece sparked the first Eurozone crisis, but the vaccine debacle will ignite the second one. 

The EU was already stumbling its way from one vaccine blunder to another. It ordered too few shots, spent too little money to ensure adequate supply, put an obscure Cypriot party hack in charge of the most important government programme since World War II, and then lashed out at the companies making the vaccines in a blind panic.

Now, presumably working on the premise that once you are in a hole the only option is to keep digging, half the continent, including Germany, France and Italy, have put the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab on hold while some statistically insignificant side effects are investigated. We will find out soon enough what the cost of that is in lost lives. With infections rising, even as the spring weather arrives, and hospitals filling up again, the toll will likely be a heavy one. But very soon it will be a financial crisis as well. Here’s why. 

First, economies will remain locked down for far longer than necessary. Right now, the differences are hardly noticeable. Israel has opened up again, but few other countries have managed to do so. Over the next few weeks, however, that will start to change, and dramatically so. As the UK and the United States cruise past 60 to 70 per cent vaccination levels, shops, restaurants and gyms will be reopening. Their economies will be growing in the 7-8 per cent range compared to zero in the EU. That is a vast gulf. At the same time, trashing property rights, and arbitrarily seizing vaccine production plants, will make it virtually impossible for multi-nationals to invest in the zone.

Next, borrowing will soar. Across Europe, huge, expensive support measures will have to remain in place, potentially for months, while they are lifted elsewhere. At the same time, tax revenues will remain depressed (closed restaurants don’t generate a lot of revenue). Budget deficits of close on 10 per cent of GDP will roll on and on. That might not matter a lot for Germany, but it does for Italy and France, two of the most heavily indebted countries in the world (they rank in third and fourth place respectively measured by the total amount owed). How much debt is too much? No one really knows, until the markets suddenly decide a threshold has been reached. Once that line is crossed, however, chaos is unleashed. 

Finally, muddled vaccine roll-outs will create a political backlash. We are already seeing that in Germany. Angela Merkel was always the world’s most over-rated leader, but her chronic caution, indecision and dithering, along with her personal responsibility for putting her inept "mini-mutti", Ursula von der Leyen, at the top of the EU, will bring her long reign to an ignominious close, as well as potentially handing power to the first Green leader of a major economy (although, in consolation, Robert Habeck is probably more of a "conservative" than the CDU leader ever was).

President Macron is facing a tight presidential contest next year, amid a deepening crisis, while across the border in Italy it is hard to see the point of having an unelected technocrat as Prime Minister – the former ECB President Mario Draghi – if he can’t get shots into people’s arms. In truth, the Eurozone is about to enter a period of fraught political uncertainty at the very worst time.  

The net result? As the spring unfolds, we will witness plummeting confidence in Eurozone economies, and a panic in the bond markets that drives up borrowing costs. Global investors have not started to price that in yet. But as the evidence becomes unavoidable, and as the gulf in performance widens, that will change.

It was the Greek crisis that sparked the first Eurozone crisis in 2010 as a decade of incompetence and spiralling debt brought the single currency to the edge of collapse. It is now surely inevitable that the "vaccine crisis" will trigger the next act in that unresolved drama.  

very sucksinked...............my post was the shortened version........:lol:

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1 minute ago, 12gauge82 said:

And I'm going to ask again. Where have all the patronising remainiacs gone who told us brexiteers were too uneducated to understand that staying in the EU was what we must do, or else face untold catastrophe 😂😂😂

Yep 👍.

the EU chiefs are making Boris and his crew , look pretty damned good right now.👍

 

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11 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

And I'm going to ask again. Where have all the patronising remainiacs gone who told us brexiteers were too uneducated to understand that staying in the EU was what we must do, or else face untold catastrophe 😂😂😂

Fair point. 

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Don't know if any of you remember a member on here, think his name was Granett, I'd love to know his views on his beloved EU now that pretty much all of his highly condescending predictions have been proved completely wrong. I think his account is inactive but I've a sneaking suspicion he never really went away but is still on here under another name. 

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33 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

And I'm going to ask again. Where have all the patronising remainiacs gone who told us brexiteers were too uneducated to understand that staying in the EU was what we must do, or else face untold catastrophe 😂😂😂

Just look north to Scotland. We have one in charge!

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54 minutes ago, 12gauge82 said:

And I'm going to ask again. Where have all the patronising remainiacs gone who told us brexiteers were too uneducated to understand that staying in the EU was what we must do, or else face untold catastrophe 😂😂😂

Please do not hold your breath, it will be a long wait!

 

The House of Cards is wavering.

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42 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

If they claimed it made their 'sausages' remain soft ,that would really spread fear 😲

the phenigg would lose all its value

then phenigg props up their economy and duetshmarkes are used to buy carbon credits to make their steel sector profitable and able to compete on the world market

Edited by ditchman
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1 hour ago, 12gauge82 said:

And I'm going to ask again. Where have all the patronising remainiacs gone who told us brexiteers were too uneducated to understand that staying in the EU was what we must do, or else face untold catastrophe 😂😂😂

Yeah, funny that, they are not saying much any more but an apology would be nice because a lot of their rhetoric was bloody insulting. We are all ignorant tattooed racist working class chavs with beer bellies according to them.  

Edited by Vince Green
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In fairness to the Remainers, there was a difference of opinion, but neither side could have predicted the pandemic. We have done okay, perhaps could have done things a little more quickly, but the EU have gone backwards. It is almost as if they are trying to prove how much the UK leaving was such a good idea.

If they start playing silly **** over vaccine exports, I would be inclined to suggest that any severance agreement be forfeited and the EU fishing quota reduced to zero, until they regain a brain.

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Rather bizarrely, the German regulator has abandoned his purely detatached professional medical position to enter into the political arena in support of his Government's position over the A-Z vaccine. His choice or arm twisting? Guess we will never know

Look, if they don't want it thats fine, I don't give a f-f-fig, if they don't want it. So why are they threatening to stop our imports?

Edited by Vince Green
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Apparently 5 million less vaccine doses have been delivered from a supplier in India and it is this that has triggered the ‘constriction’ and therefore the under 50s will have to wait a month longer.

Why on earth if this is true did Hancock not say so.

If is is not true, what is the reason for the shortage when Pfizer and AZ say they have no production problems.

I cannot believe a word from Hancocks mouth however.

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6 hours ago, Gordon R said:

In fairness to the Remainers, there was a difference of opinion, but neither side could have predicted the pandemic. We have done okay, perhaps could have done things a little more quickly, but the EU have gone backwards. It is almost as if they are trying to prove how much the UK leaving was such a good idea.

If they start playing silly **** over vaccine exports, I would be inclined to suggest that any severance agreement be forfeited and the EU fishing quota reduced to zero, until they regain a brain.

Agreed

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6 hours ago, Good shot? said:

Apparently 5 million less vaccine doses have been delivered from a supplier in India and it is this that has triggered the ‘constriction’ and therefore the under 50s will have to wait a month longer.

Why on earth if this is true did Hancock not say so.

If is is not true, what is the reason for the shortage when Pfizer and AZ say they have no production problems.

I cannot believe a word from Hancocks mouth however.

Thats exactly what Hancock did say, that only 5 of the 10 million doses expected from the plant in India have been delivered.

 

The crisis is understood to have been triggered by the late delivery of five million doses of the AstraZeneca jab being manufactured in India. In total, India's Serum Institute was due to send 10 million doses to the UK this month – but just half have arrived, with the five million due at the end of this month now delayed by four weeks. 

Edited by Vince Green
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