Predictions?

[Rewulf]

Just now, Raja Clavata said:

. But if the UK public really "want Brexit done"

Do you doubt this? 

[ditchman]

the way i see it ...is we have 2 choices..........if you get down to the nitty gritty...

1. if we exit the EU....all well and good.....we can always join again if it dosnt work  (which i hope it will do)
2. if we stay in the EU it will finally be impossible to exit and the EU will rape us

i think a lot of remainers (like the brexiteers are sick and bloody tired of this whole debacle)   and like all of us we want to get on and sort out the issues that effect all of our day to day living.........................none of us want this rubbish to continue any longer....and i believe alot of the remainers...(with total respect to them as they are our brothers and sisters)...will make their mark on the exit side bearing in mind points 1 & 2....just to get closure so we can finally move on.........

i desperatly want to vote Brexit party....but i wont ....i dont trust Boris at all....i dont even know what his or for that matter know what was May's deal..............but Boris must bear one thing in mind....if he dosnt exit the EU in a good deal as he says and has promised.....the people of this country will phisically linch him....they will hunt him down and string him up...so he must remember he is playing with fire....we will give him the ammo he needs to get things done and back on track to look after the people of this country....but if he starts playing games......he will wish he has never been born.............

i believe the future exit of this country rests in the hands of the remainers...............strange ?........its the way i see it ...

[Raja Clavata]

5 minutes ago, JohnfromUK said:

Good question!

Johnson has probably no likely allies now the DUP are no longer 'on side'.  Hence if he doesn't get a majority, he will in effect be powerless as he will get nothing through the commons.

Corbyn will not get a majority (would need to gain over 100 seats which isn't going to happen) but could get 'propped up' by SNP, LibDem, Greens, and at least some of the 'former Labour' MPs.  If we look at this;

• SNP will vote for much of the hard left stuff McDonnell, Corbyn, Abbott, Pidcock and others want IF they are granted a second Scotland referendum - and will support lowering the voting age.
• LibDem will support any leave activities and also reducing voting age to 16, but not the harder lefty (such as nationalisation) issues.
• Green (who are very lefty) will support Labour and will also support voter age reduction
• Labour cabinet will be nearly all Remainers who will campaign for Remain in any future referendum

So we have a Corbyn minority who will be able to do almost nothing other than NHS spending, lowering voting age and TWO new referendums, Scotland Independance and Leave under a new Corbyn (stay in Customs Union and Single Market) 'leave' deal or Remain.

Results;

• Voting age will be reduced to 16
• Scotland will vote again with lower voter age on leaving the Union
• UK will remain in the EU
• Voting age will be 16 making a Labour majority much more likely in any General Election - which will follow soon afterwards.
• That will lead to a Labour Majority and all the lefty lunacy that McDonnell, Corbyn, Abbott, Pidcock want.

But this is about choice and consequence. The Tories chose to go it alone and try to avoid splitting the leave vote by doing a deal with the BP. The remain vote is split but the flip side is they can form a remain alliance / coalition after the election. Tory greed and self service again (just like the 2016 vote).

2 minutes ago, Rewulf said:

Do you doubt this? 

We will see.

[Thunderbird]

6 minutes ago, ditchman said:

i desperatly want to vote Brexit party....but i wont

I can understand that. Ironically, in this GE (because of the dynamics) voting for the Brexit party makes Brexit less, rather than more, likely. 

9 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

And that would be of the Conservatives own doing.

That may be so, but you asked a question and I answered it. Or did you just want an argument? 

😂

[chrisjpainter]

Small, but effective Tory majority.

Labour will lose almost everything in Scotland to either the SNP or the Lib Dems and will lose a few in brexity areas of the north 

Lib dems to increase their percentage of the vote, but will probably stay around 15 seats (max 20) because they can't unite the remain vote (Swinson's fault there).

Low 330's for the Tories, 

 

 

[Raja Clavata]

1 minute ago, Thunderbird said:

I can understand that. Ironically, in this GE (because of the dynamics) voting for the Brexit party makes Brexit less, rather than more, likely. 

That may be so, but you asked a question and I answered it. Or did you just want an argument? 

😂

Haven't got time for an argument this morning 😛 

[Penelope]

46 minutes ago, hedge said:

I think you are right.

Do people vote for an obvious (Tory?) majority to at least get something moving and avoid the current situation. 

Latest polls say c.25 seat Tory majority but to allow for error/variances either way, it could be a bigger majority or a hung parliament.

Goes to show how tight it is and the fact that it's so hard to predict.

I'm no fan of Boris, but can't stand Corbyn and the sooner the Labour party get rid of him the more competitive they will become.

The amount of fake news/smear campaigns etc by ALL parties has been really bad (and more American) this year. Shame on all of them.

This is the least comfortable I have been in `supporting` a party for many years.

Corbyn is just the mouth piece puppet of Milne, Lansman, Mcdonnel, et al. If he goes, they'll still be around

[Gordon R]

Quote

 

Small, but effective Tory majority.

Labour will lose almost everything in Scotland to either the SNP or the Lib Dems and will lose a few in brexity areas of the north 

Lib dems to increase their percentage of the vote, but will probably stay around 15 seats (max 20) because they can't unite the remain vote (Swinson's fault there).

Low 330's for the Tories, 

 

I would think a slightly higher margin, but you could be right.

[Rewulf]

Just now, Gordon R said:

I would think a slightly higher margin,

Me too hopefully. 

The tories need to gain just 5 seats for a majority, I don't think it's a big ask. 

[hawkfanz]

63% of people were i am voted to leave eu,the town has been labour since 1935,so my vote goes to bp party hoping the majority round here do the same,and hopefull get more mp,s to exert some form of leverage on the tories.

[RockySpears]

11 minutes ago, Penelope said:

I'm no fan of Boris, but can't stand Corbyn and the sooner the Labour party get rid of him the more competitive they will become.

  About sums it up.  

I'll go for a big Tory win and Corbyn resigns next day.  Momentum and all the other Marxists are thrown out and Kier Starmer becomes next leader.

Any sort of Tory win see Corbyn out I think.

Lib-Dems are sunk this time round due to their utter contempt for Democratic vote of the referendum.

Scotland can do whatever it likes, no one cares (but I do like the Scots and Scotland).

Wales goes Tory.

NI irrelevant despite all the Border stuff.

 

RS

 

[norfolk dumpling]

A farmer friend I was shooting with last week said his kids - both eligible for first time - were voting Greens as they didn't like/trust the Big 2. This is a True Blue family in a Tory constituency with a big majority. 

What we need is poor weather which may deter young from getting out of their 'pits'!!

[Deker]

2 minutes ago, RockySpears said:

  About sums it up.  

I'll go for a big Tory win and Corbyn resigns next day.  Momentum and all the other Marxists are thrown out and Kier Starmer becomes next leader.

Any sort of Tory win see Corbyn out I think.

Lib-Dems are sunk this time round due to their utter contempt for Democratic vote of the referendum.

Scotland can do whatever it likes, no one cares (but I do like the Scots and Scotland).

Wales goes Tory.

NI irrelevant despite all the Border stuff.

 

RS

 

 

I agree apart from him resigning, he can see power and will do anything to try and get it, he'll need to be pushed

[chrisjpainter]

Just now, Gordon R said:

I would think a slightly higher margin, but you could be right.

I think the margin could be quite high, but the majority around the 330's. 325 is the magic number; so if the Tories get 335, that's only a majority of 10, but that could be a fairly heft margin beyond what Labour get, which could be around the 240-250 mark, given losses to the Tories, LDs and the SNP.

As a remainer, it's panning out as I feared and expected. The Tories do a decent enough job of uniting the Leave vote, but the remain vote is split. We would at least have a majority government that can move things forward. I'll vote Lib Dem, but a Tory majority isn't the worst thing in the world.

My pie in the sky ideal would be: 

In a completely unexpected and bizarre shift of events, the Lib Dems win a majority, but Jo Swinson loses her seat and can't take up her position as PM (hilarious and awkward in equal measure) and the Party don't ratify her nicking someone else's seat because none of them thought it was a good idea to cancel Brexit. The Green Party collapses and is subsumed into the Lib Dems, and Lucas becomes PM - because she's a far better politician across all areas than any of the others.  A three way referendum is quickly called  (we don't have to cancel it because Swinson's politically dead in a ditch) on BoJo's deal, No Deal and Remain. And whatever is picked is stuck with. No more negotiation, no more bickering and arguing. If either of the Brexity options won, then there'd be another election, which every Remain voter would have to stomach. 

Given that this ain't gonna happen (although Swinson really could lose her seat - now just hilarious) A Tory majority is the only realistic chance the country has in moving anywhere, at least in the short to medium term. As Ditchy said, we can always rejoin if it really does all go pear shaped, but only after a reasonable length of time to prove it's not just initial teething problems.

[hedge]

23 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Corbyn is just the mouth piece puppet of Milne, Lansman, Mcdonnel, et al. If he goes, they'll still be around

Very true.

For me, politics is more of a popularity contest than it ever was. Corbyn is the figurehead and the `face of Labour` and he's currently not doing very well. I just can't stand the man and wouldn't give Labour any consideration until he's well out of it. I appreciate that there are others in the background pulling the strings. I just don't think he's doing them any favours.

At least if they had someone fresher (more likeable), they'd maybe become more appealing. 

I can't believe that they've not ousted him. The combination of Jezza and Bozza is making politics very unlikeable and toxic at the moment.

 

 

[ditchman]

16 minutes ago, norfolk dumpling said:

A farmer friend I was shooting with last week said his kids - both eligible for first time - were voting Greens as they didn't like/trust the Big 2. This is a True Blue family in a Tory constituency with a big majority. 

What we need is poor weather which may deter young from getting out of their 'pits'!!

just do what corbyn promised last time ...........free uni education and legalise pot..........those kids of today would do anything for a bit of extra cash and drugs..........and they will believe anything ...cause they know everything..

[Thunderbird]

2 minutes ago, ditchman said:

free uni education

They will probably even pay them to do 'Gender' Studies. 😂

[Deker]

Just now, Thunderbird said:

They will probably even pay them to do 'Gender' Studies. 😂

 

that'll be a bloody long course lol

[Thunderbird]

Just now, Deker said:

 

that'll be a bloody long course lol

A lifetime's academic career, in fact. 😉

[WestonSalop]

7 minutes ago, hedge said:

Very true.

For me, politics is more of a popularity contest than it ever was. Corbyn is the figurehead and the `face of Labour` and he's currently not doing very well. I just can't stand the man and wouldn't give Labour any consideration until he's well out of it. I appreciate that there are others in the background pulling the strings. I just don't think he's doing them any favours.

At least if they had someone fresher (more likeable), they'd maybe become more appealing. 

I can't believe that they've not ousted him. The combination of Jezza and Bozza is making politics very unlikeable and toxic at the moment.

 

 

Even if Jezza and BoJo were out of the picture, their policies would still be enacted. I like Boris as a character - bit of a lad, buffoon etc but I trust him less than any other politician. I dislike JRM intensely and lord help us if he ever leads the Tory party. But there are others. Same situation with Labour really - their Marxist policies are not Corbyn's - there's hundreds of the loony left that could lead the party. So in my view, whoever leads them is somewhat academic.

[oldypigeonpopper]

hello, i was amused by Boris on his latest political broad cast with the radio playing and his message on a dozen sheets with no words spoken to the lady,

[Deker]

4 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, i was amused by Boris on his latest political broad cast with the radio playing and his message on a dozen sheets with no words spoken to the lady,

 

I thought it was great but I'm surprised the director if Love Actually hasn't been in touch (unless he supported it).

[Westward]

I would be a lot more confident for a tory majority if Boris had spent the last month looking more like a winner and less like a hapless, inept bumbling amateur.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

9 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, i was amused by Boris on his latest political broad cast with the radio playing and his message on a dozen sheets with no words spoken to the lady,

 

3 minutes ago, Deker said:

 

I thought it was great but I'm surprised the director if Love Actually hasn't been in touch (unless he supported it).

Too many Bob Dylan copiers around!

[JohnfromUK]

1 hour ago, Thunderbird said:

Ironically, in this GE (because of the dynamics) voting for the Brexit party makes Brexit less, rather than more, likely. 

In many constituencies that is true.

26 minutes ago, hedge said:

Corbyn is the figurehead and the `face of Labour` and he's currently not doing very well. I just can't stand the man and wouldn't give Labour any consideration until he's well out of it. I appreciate that there are others in the background pulling the strings. I just don't think he's doing them any favours.

Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant character, humourless, boring, inflexible, pedantic, opportunistic, with a choice of VERY nasty friends (IRA, Hamas, other terrorist groups, Chavez etc.) and a deeply routed dislike of what most of us like about the UK (tradition, freedom, minimal 'nanny state', royal family, countryside and reward for merit and hard work).

Neither Corbyn or Johnson are honest or trustworthy, but I do believe Johnson basically likes British tradition and values, whereas I believe Corbyn holds them in contempt.