LIFTING THE LOCKDOWN!

[clangerman]

Just now, Rewulf said:

Id stay in your bunker then, and wait for it to all blow over 

i fully intend to better broke than dead! 

[AVB]

We just have to learn to live with this. Some people will die of it, more will die with it, and the majority will die without it at some point. 

[Lord v]

3 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Jesus H - I just read the detailed code review - if the findings are true Ferguson could well find himself in prison or another statistic. He must be under huge pressure right now... 😞 

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

 

That is honestly scary stuff. 

If true that model isnt worth a dime and shouldnt have been near the outside world, let a lone government policy. 

I have read (but not investigated so maybe repeating bull) that Ferguson was also behind the equally flawed foot and mouth modelling... 

[wyn]

2 minutes ago, Lord v said:

 

I have read (but not investigated so maybe repeating bull) that Ferguson was also behind the equally flawed foot and mouth modelling... 

He did the modeling for F&M which was found to be a bit dodgy.

Also with BSE he predicted 150000 dead and there were 200.   He also modeled some predictions for swine flu that were way out.

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, Lord v said:

That is honestly scary stuff. 

If true that model isnt worth a dime and shouldnt have been near the outside world, let a lone government policy. 

I have read (but not investigated so maybe repeating bull) that Ferguson was also behind the equally flawed foot and mouth modelling... 

Pretty much the only thing I know about the whole F&M thing is that Ferguson was involved - just the other day there were articles like this praising him:

https://www.businessinsider.com/neil-ferguson-transformed-uk-covid-response-oxford-challenge-imperial-model-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

When they originally spoke about the Imperial College model on COVID I have assumed it had been constructed using something like Matlab with either a modified tool-box or custom one.

To find out it is a C++ implementation derived from a model used for F&M modelling with no underlying architecture is absolutely shocking - it may be the way scientists go about modelling things (although I suspect not) but thankfully it's not how Engineers developing mission / safety critical applications for cars, planes, trains and the like tackle the problem.

I have no doubt that Dr Ferguson is utterly brilliant in his field but it's highly unlikely he's brilliant at both epidemiology and software engineering...

[Rewulf]

23 minutes ago, clangerman said:

i fully intend to better broke than dead! 

That depends if you EARN a living, the question you dodged last time.

Dont preach to me from an ivory tower.

[Lord v]

3 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Pretty much the only thing I know about the whole F&M thing is that Ferguson was involved - just the other day there were articles like this praising him:

https://www.businessinsider.com/neil-ferguson-transformed-uk-covid-response-oxford-challenge-imperial-model-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

When they originally spoke about the Imperial College model on COVID I have assumed it had been constructed using something like Matlab with either a modified tool-box or custom one.

To find out it is a C++ implementation derived from a model used for F&M modelling with no underlying architecture is absolutely shocking - it may be the way scientists go about modelling things (although I suspect not) but thankfully it's not how Engineers developing mission / safety critical applications for cars, planes, trains and the like tackle the problem.

I have no doubt that Dr Ferguson is utterly brilliant in his field but it's highly unlikely he's brilliant at both epidemiology and software engineering...

I am not wholy surprised at the state of it to be honest. This kind of franken model is somewhat common in more esoteric parts of academia. Some transport modelling is similar, but can at least be calibrated by reallife data and while stochastic is replicateable. Plus the last 10 years or so have seen those sort of models really come on as they were handed over to people who can actually write software rather than an intern who read a book on FORTRAN once. 

People would probably be glad to know (although the implications are a little scary) that the modelling behind flooding/drainage and hydrology in this country is waaaaay more reliable than the one currently meaning we have to stay at home.... 

This is like finding out an undergrads final year project written in two weeks fuelled by peanutbutter m&ms and redbull is dictating government policy. 

 

For some more interesting news some of my former colleagues are partnering with some water companies to develop disease tracking capabilities based on monitors in sewers. Some properly interesting stuff. 

[TRINITY]

Well you can discuss stats and models all day long but sometimes the evidence of what you see can be just as accurate. 

I am trying to obey the lockdown rules and very carefull due to my age. This week when nipping out for my daily exercise I have noticed more and more traffic and more and more walkers and cyclists. Today everywhere was so crowded and busy I just went back home. I realise it's a bank holiday, but the impression I am getting is there are more and more people treating the lockdown as a long holiday. Those getting paid to stay at home are probably enjoying it the most.

My conclusion is, forget the lockdown, get people back to work as safely as practicable and try and get life moving again. This situation is not sustainable and now seems pointless. For those like myself who are at higher risk, we can still isolate and take care so I dont see a problem.

[oldypigeonpopper]

9 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

Well you can discuss stats and models all day long but sometimes the evidence of what you see can be just as accurate. 

I am trying to obey the lockdown rules and very carefull due to my age. This week when nipping out for my daily exercise I have noticed more and more traffic and more and more walkers and cyclists. Today everywhere was so crowded and busy I just went back home. I realise it's a bank holiday, but the impression I am getting is there are more and more people treating the lockdown as a long holiday. Those getting paid to stay at home are probably enjoying it the most.

My conclusion is, forget the lockdown, get people back to work as safely as practicable and try and get life moving again. This situation is not sustainable and now seems pointless. For those like myself who are at higher risk, we can still isolate and take care so I dont see a problem.

hello, yes seems to be more going on now, today i shall do my usual longish walk after a late lunch,, through a nature reserve, only time i can hear the birds sing in town and need a spring time reminder

[TRINITY]

5 minutes ago, oldypigeonpopper said:

hello, yes seems to be more going on now, today i shall do my usual longish walk after a late lunch,, through a nature reserve, only time i can hear the birds sing in town and need a spring time reminder

Hope you have a nice stroll mate, but if it's anything like I have witnessed this morning it will be uncomfortably busy

[Rewulf]

32 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

My conclusion is, forget the lockdown, get people back to work as safely as practicable and try and get life moving again. This situation is not sustainable and now seems pointless. For those like myself who are at higher risk, we can still isolate and take care so I dont see a problem.

Spot on 

[Yellow Bear]

47 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

I realise it's a bank holiday,

 For those having trouble with what day it is " today (friday) is bank holiday monday

[Retsdon]

6 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

It was badly planned

Did you see Matt Hancock start shaking his head when Boris stood in the Commons the other day and announced a target of 200,000 tests?  Now that the 2011 UK  pandemic preparedness strategy has  been ditched, nothing is badly planned. It's not planned at all. 

[lancer425]

2 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Did you see Matt Hancock start shaking his head when Boris stood in the Commons the other day and announced a target of 200,000 tests?

Yes that fly buzzing around was annoying him.

[clangerman]

5 hours ago, Rewulf said:

That depends if you EARN a living, the question you dodged last time.

Dont preach to me from an ivory tower.

you didn’t ask if i earn a living i dodge nothing the small income i draw from will probably go to the wall now so much for a ivory tower but at least i will be alive 

[Rewulf]

14 minutes ago, clangerman said:

you didn’t ask if i earn a living i dodge nothing the small income i draw from will probably go to the wall now so much for a ivory tower but at least i will be alive 

You might think differently if your livelihood and kids, rent/mortgage were depending on you to go to work.
Believe it or not , there are people who go out EVERY day and put their lives on the line to earn a crust, CV19 or not.

You dont see NHS workers refusing to go out and do their job just in case they catch it, do you ?
THATS the point, because YOU dont need to , doesnt mean others dont.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Rewulf

[clangerman]

everything i have from from the house to the cars was only possible from years of hard graft and even with the state of my health i still help out in the yard when possible if i was back on the tools i would still not support this madness 

[TRINITY]

Well on today's figures about 5500 new cases in last 24 hours and 600ish deaths. That's in spite of this phoney lockdown. My son delivered me some milk this afternoon. Said he had to pass by two supermarkets with massive queues. He also saw an massive queue outside a KFC that has just re opened. Not only food outlets but b and q was heaving. The retail park had numbers of visitors which looked like pre covid levels. So why take this terrible economic hit when the benefits appear minimalistic.

[McSpredder]

10 hours ago, Raja Clavata said:

Jesus H - I just read the detailed code review - if the findings are true Ferguson could well find himself in prison or another statistic. He must be under huge pressure right now... 😞

…. unless he has some very special friends in very high places.   Successive UK governments have relied on statistical modelling by Prof Ferguson’s team at Imperial College, in spite of their abysmal track record.

• 2002 BSE – predicted deaths (UK) 150,000 – actual deaths 177
• 2005 bird flu – predicted deaths (worldwide) 200 million – actual deaths 282
• 2009 swine flu (H1N1) – predicted deaths (UK) 650,000 – actual deaths 457

You might get a more accurate prediction from a lady in a caravan at Appleby Horse Fair, or from Old Moore’s Almanac.

• https://www.ft.com/content/1e390ac6-7e2c-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
• https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked

It would be interesting to find out on what basis the government’ s epidemiology advisers are selected.   Governments change, ministers come and go, but Ferguson goes on for ever.   Might that suggest a long-standing and cosy relationship with some senior civil servants, or is there some other explanation?   

[7daysinaweek]

38 minutes ago, Mice! said:

A week to 14 days probably?

All I was expecting Monday was travel restrictions lifted but maintaining social distancing. Hopefully hobbies can recommence again. 

A lot of firms are going back to work if they can manage the 2m rule, the NHS hasn't been over ran, the nightingale hospitals are ready if needed.

I certainly don't blame the government for waiting till after the bank holiday. 

Hi K

Even though death rates have fell overall we are still seeing a steady stream of suspected and confirmed Covid infected patients. A few weeks ago we increased our assessment . This was in response to the expected peak and we have also widened our referral pathway  for Covid only assessment face 2 face from a larger area of gp's. Obviously opening up to a wider area in this short period we would expect and increase in referrals. Also Liverpool has seen some of the highest rates of Covid infections in the UK.

Speaking with our senor medical and clinical leads they are not relaxing any patient capacity measures at present and they are expecting an increase in infection rate when the restrictions are lifted, thus more referrals from gp's into our service.

After leaving the assessment unit yesterday afternoon on the way home I saw a lot of cars parked nose to bumper outside a hardware/garden nursery,  a large group of people, 30 or so outside all huddled together, cheek to jowl as they scrambled getting whatever was for sale, it appeared to be plants. Any way two sets of people were arguing by the looks of it. There was social distancing however it was 2cm not 2m.

Ahh the joys!

atb

7diaw

[Walker570]

2 hours ago, McSpredder said:

…. unless he has some very special friends in very high places.   Successive UK governments have relied on statistical modelling by Prof Ferguson’s team at Imperial College, in spite of their abysmal track record.

• 2002 BSE – predicted deaths (UK) 150,000 – actual deaths 177
• 2005 bird flu – predicted deaths (worldwide) 200 million – actual deaths 282
• 2009 swine flu (H1N1) – predicted deaths (UK) 650,000 – actual deaths 457

You might get a more accurate prediction from a lady in a caravan at Appleby Horse Fair, or from Old Moore’s Almanac.

• https://www.ft.com/content/1e390ac6-7e2c-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
• https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked

It would be interesting to find out on what basis the government’ s epidemiology advisers are selected.   Governments change, ministers come and go, but Ferguson goes on for ever.   Might that suggest a long-standing and cosy relationship with some senior civil servants, or is there some other explanation?   

The old pals act always present in those circles. 

Yes, get back to work, use common sense and within a couple weeks it will all be back to near normal again.  

[Retsdon]

2 hours ago, McSpredder said:

Might that suggest a long-standing and cosy relationship with some senior civil servants, or is there some other explanation?   

Nothing nefarious. It's just a lack of imagination at higher levels and it's the way things normally work. Once someone has been established with a reputation for being the 'go to' person for anything, no matter what the subject it requires quite a brave person to bypass them and look outside the box. It's like the old saying that nobody ever got fired for buying  IBM equipment  - and Ferguson and Imperial College have established themselves as  the IBM of the disease modelling world. Nobody will catch it in the neck for following their advice so people - government bods, civil servants etc -  do what's expected of them.

As an aside, military history is chock full of disasters and shambles that came from just this kind of thinking.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Retsdon

[Old farrier]

21 minutes ago, 7daysinaweek said:

Hi K

Even though death rates have fell overall we are still seeing a steady stream of suspected and confirmed Covid infected patients. A few weeks ago we increased our assessment . This was in response to the expected peak and we have also widened our referral pathway  for Covid only assessment face 2 face from a larger area of gp's. Obviously opening up to a wider area in this short period we would expect and increase in referrals. Also Liverpool has seen some of the highest rates of Covid infections in the UK.

Speaking with our senor medical and clinical leads they are not relaxing any patient capacity measures at present and they are expecting an increase in infection rate when the restrictions are lifted, thus more referrals from gp's into our service.

After leaving the assessment unit yesterday afternoon on the way home I saw a lot of cars parked nose to bumper outside a hardware/garden nursery,  a large group of people, 30 or so outside all huddled together, cheek to jowl as they scrambled getting whatever was for sale, it appeared to be plants. Any way two sets of people were arguing by the looks of it. There was social distancing however it was 2cm not 2m.

Ahh the joys!

atb

7diaw

Appreciate your updates and the work you and your colleagues are doing big thanks 

 

was wondering on your thoughts about the best way out of the situation 

all the best 

of 

 

[Mice!]

30 minutes ago, 7daysinaweek said:

After leaving the assessment unit yesterday afternoon on the way home I saw a lot of cars parked nose to bumper outside a hardware/garden nursery,  a large group of people, 30 or so outside all huddled together, cheek to jowl as they scrambled getting whatever was for sale, it appeared to be plants. Any way two sets of people were arguing by the looks of it. There was social distancing however it was 2cm not 2m.

Not good that mate, it must really stick in your craw doing what you do all day and seeing that.

Hope you're keeping well with all that's going on.

[Smokersmith]

4 hours ago, TRINITY said:

Well on today's figures about 5500 new cases in last 24 hours and 600ish deaths. That's in spite of this phoney lockdown. My son delivered me some milk this afternoon. Said he had to pass by two supermarkets with massive queues. He also saw an massive queue outside a KFC that has just re opened. Not only food outlets but b and q was heaving. The retail park had numbers of visitors which looked like pre covid levels. So why take this terrible economic hit when the benefits appear minimalistic.

The death toll was doubling every 3 days.

It isn’t now.