European election voting

[Guest cookoff013]

New conserve ?

Sounds like a jam.

[GingerCat]

21 minutes ago, gustaff said:

do you think  boris may be the next pm  an avid brexiter and farage may get together politicly and start the new conservative party and deliver what the country wanted

Nope. I think Boris might be leader of the conservative party for a while before an election is called and they are out voted every which way from Sunday. There all be a right judge podge in Westminster and are parliament will resemble italys for a while. 

[Raja Clavata]

22 hours ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

Raja Clavata and Oowee will be along soon!

My take from all this is a little disappointed that the outcome was not a bit more definitive than it appears to be:

• Tommy Robinson and UKIP kicked into touch, hooray!
• ChangeUK a non-starter, they were never going to do well but that was shocking by any standards, they need to up their game (somehow) or ship out back to whatever party will have them. Soubry came across deluded, Chuka must be wondering what horrific crimes he must have committed in a previous life to deserve all this.
• The Brexit party did well but not as well as some were predicting, I thought they'd do better, deep down I suspect Farage is a little disappointed to be honest.
• Labour and Conservatives, well not much to say there really.
• Lib Dems did pretty well, again as expected and the Greens too although they didn't get many more votes than before in Remain areas.

I've not looked at the news since this morning where the Remainers were claiming the joint remain vote was higher than the joint leave vote and Farage angrily countering that if you consider Conservatives a vote for Leave then joint leave vote was highest. So we are left with each side claiming "success", round and round in circles we go.

Looking forward to the News at 10.

[ditchman]

25 minutes ago, GingerCat said:

Nope. I think Boris might be leader of the conservative party for a while before an election is called and they are out voted every which way from Sunday. There all be a right judge podge in Westminster and are parliament will resemble italys for a while. 

I dont trust Boris...........never have done.......i remember at the beginning........it was a long time before he came out of his lair to thro his hat on the Exit side............and folk were not sure what side he was going to as he had "history" in Europe and some folk believed he was a europhile.....................i believe and have always believed he is doing all this to become Prime Minister....all self interest.......

all well and good if he delivers on the Brexit result...........anyway we shall see........

[Raja Clavata]

Just now, ditchman said:

I dont trust Boris...........never have done.......i remember at the beginning........it was a long time before he came out of his lair to thro his hat on the Exit side............and folk were not sure what side he was going to as he had "history" in Europe and some folk believed he was a europhile.....................i believe and have always believed he is doing all this to become Prime Minister....all self interest.......

all well and good if he delivers on the Brexit result...........anyway we shall see........

Agreed. If there's one thing to be taken from the EU election results it's that the people voted for clarity, if you apply that same logic to the Conservative leadership battle then that does not bode well for Boris.

[Raja Clavata]

2 hours ago, Rewulf said:

What would be the point right now? 

We aren't having a GE, if and when we do, the political and economic landscape could be completely different. 

Let's let the dust settle on this, and see what this leadership thing produces, if it all goes pear shaped, an early GE is far more likely. 

Then we can talk about manifestos and suchlike. 

I think the point is it would give him something else to talk about / say. As you know, I'm not his biggest fan but if every time he appears on the TV he runs through the same lines he's gonna start turning people off, even those that support him.

[Dave-G]

All the remainers claiming their joint total is higher than the leave total: I think they forgot Con and Lab are only about half and half - which knocks that number down to a wake up call.

[Newbie to this]

11 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Agreed. If there's one thing to be taken from the EU election results it's that the people voted for clarity, if you apply that same logic to the Conservative leadership battle then that does not bode well for Boris.

Agreed, but it's not the public who have a say. And members only have a say once it been whittled down to 2.

[Gordon R]

Quote

All the remainers claiming their joint total is higher than the leave total: I think they forgot Con and Lab are only about half and half - which knocks that number down to a wake up call.

All those who make this false claim clearly attended the Di Abbott School for Advanced Mathematics. It is a pitiful excuse for an argument and has no basis in truth.

Looking at the map showing the areas won by the Brexit Party, Nigel Farage must be delighted.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Gordon R

[Raja Clavata]

6 minutes ago, Newbie to this said:

Agreed, but it's not the public who have a say. And members only have a say once it been whittled down to 2.

Indeed.

[krugerandsmith]

8 hours ago, Dave-G said:

All the remainers claiming their joint total is higher than the leave total: I think they forgot Con and Lab are only about half and half - which knocks that number down to a wake up call.

Spot on.   The blinkered idiots.

[mick miller]

Regardless of who massages the figures, Remain lost again. 

The only three parties on a definitive Remain position (lib dem, change, Plaid and the SNP) got 28.4%.

The Greens did well, but to lump them in with Remain is a mistake. Yes, they favour Remain but their main policies are on, of all things, the environment and climate change. I know of three muesli knitters that voted Green, none of them give a flying f about Brexit. In the words of one 'who cares about Europe when the planet is dying?'. Anecdotal yes, but likely representative. They got 12.1%.

Out of the rest, all on a leave with a deal or leave with no deal (Labour, Cons, UKIP, BP) they got 58.1%. 

Out of that 58.1% majority, 31.6% favour leaving with no deal if a deal cannot be done.

If you still insist on lumping the Greens in with the no vote, that still only gives 40.9%. A clear minority. 

Turnout was terribly low though, unlike the referendum, which leave won, or the general election that followed, in which leave parties won. But yeah, remain did really well, so great result for them I guess? 

My totals look duff though, taken from the Daily Fail, so I'll check a more reliable source later and amend as necessary. 

Edited May 28, 2019 by mick miller

[Walker570]

I see slimey Jeremy Hunt has now said that he will not back a no deal scenario.  I wouldn't trust him to do anything, another self server.

[twenty]

I was hoping Steve Baker would join the fray, but I guess he would be voted out by the remainer  Conservative MP's, who would probably favour a softer touch.

 

[mick miller]

I think the Brexit party needs to pull out all the stops now. Get together a list of potential candidates for the GE that is sure to come. I would, based on reviewing a manifesto or any more detailed plans for the future of the UK, potentially tick their box. So much needs fixing in the UK besides Brexit.

 

 

[Raja Clavata]

53 minutes ago, mick miller said:

Regardless of who massages the figures, Remain lost again. 

The only three parties on a definitive Remain position (lib dem, change, Plaid and the SNP) got 28.4%.

The Greens did well, but to lump them in with Remain is a mistake. Yes, they favour Remain but their main policies are on, of all things, the environment and climate change. I know of three muesli knitters that voted Green, none of them give a flying f about Brexit. In the words of one 'who cares about Europe when the planet is dying?'. Anecdotal yes, but likely representative. They got 12.1%.

Out of the rest, all on a leave with a deal or leave with no deal (Labour, Cons, UKIP, BP) they got 58.1%. 

Out of that 58.1% majority, 31.6% favour leaving with no deal if a deal cannot be done.

If you still insist on lumping the Greens in with the no vote, that still only gives 40.9%. A clear minority. 

Turnout was terribly low though, unlike the referendum, which leave won, or the general election that followed, in which leave parties won. But yeah, remain did really well, so great result for them I guess? 

My totals look duff though, taken from the Daily Fail, so I'll check a more reliable source later and amend as necessary. 

Interesting analysis but seems like a bit of a stretch to me, Lucas has been pretty vocal about being anti Brexit so to suggest a vote for the Greens was not a vote for remain is, well...

If Labour continue moving towards remain then things could get interesting as the Leave vote then gets split between the Brexit Party and Conservatives which could see fragmentation between those in favour of no deal and those who wish to avoid it whilst still leaving. So, Brexit could be won or lost on where Labour finally end up positioning themselves?

[mick miller]

13 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Interesting analysis but seems like a bit of a stretch to me, Lucas has been pretty vocal about being anti Brexit so to suggest a vote for the Greens was not a vote for remain is, well...

If Labour continue moving towards remain then things could get interesting as the Leave vote then gets split between the Brexit Party and Conservatives which could see fragmentation between those in favour of no deal and those who wish to avoid it whilst still leaving. So, Brexit could be won or lost on where Labour finally end up positioning themselves?

Bit of a stretch? I added them in for you at the end. 40.9% vs. 58.1%. Your remain side still lost, but carrying on burying your head in the sand or putting your fingers in your ears... whichever. If Labour go for a second ref expect Lib Dems to lose support to Labour, but Labour aren't going to gain many votes out of it from any other party.

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by mick miller

[Raja Clavata]

4 minutes ago, mick miller said:

Bit of a stretch? I added them in for you at the end. 40.9% vs. 58.1%. Your remain side still lost, but carrying on burying your head in the sand or putting your fingers in your ears... whichever.

 

Yes, a stretch not to include Green as a remain vote and to include Labour and Conservatives in the Leave numbers (even Farage didn't go that far).

It may be convenient to accuse me of head in the sand and fingers in my ears but you appear to have conveniently over-looked the whole debacle in Parliament. If Labour and Conservatives were Leave parties then we would have left on the 29th March?

And if you have strength in your conviction then one might assume you have nothing to fear in confirmatory vote to the public to decide on the specific terms of our divorce from the EU. I am not advocating it per se but just making the point however unpopular it may be with some quarters.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Raja Clavata

[mick miller]

Both Labour and Conservative campaigned that they would honour the results of the referendum and Leave the EU. Are you now saying that the opposite was true? Totally delusional.

 

[JohnfromUK]

Labour is largely a 'remain party'.  Corbyn has traditionally been anti EU, but then he has been anti almost everything except the IRA, Hamas, Palestine, Venezeula, free immigration etc.

Watson, Thornberry/Nugee, McDonnell (recently), Long Bailey, Starmer, Pillock, Benn are all remainers.  Abbott was speaking remain today, but has no consistent position.Many back benchers are remainers.  I would say Labour are about 75% remain, 25% leave.

In contrast, the Tories are 75% leave, 25% remain.

 

[mick miller]

Labour campaigned to Leave. How are they largely 'remain'? The MPs may be largely leave but how do you know that those that vote for them are largely 'remain', more clutching at straws I'm afraid. Their vote share was based on leaving the EU (and those that would Labour no matter what). So, yes, I put them in the 'leave' camp until they come out and specifically state the opposite. If they decide to back the 'remain' side or a second ref watch as the Lib Dems lose vote share to Labour and Labour lose vote share to 'leave' parties.

What is even more laughable is that the desperate remainers are claiming a 'switch in public opionion' based on a miserly 37-38% turnout, have a second ref but it's a waste of time, remain would lose again and likely by a larger margin than before.

Edited May 28, 2019 by mick miller

[JohnfromUK]

1 minute ago, mick miller said:

Labour campaigned to Leave. How are they largely 'remain'?

I should perhaps have clarified that the Labour 'front bench' are now mainly taking a 'remain' stand (and I include staying in the Customs Union/Single Market as being remain).  It is right that they campaigned for leave ........ but they (in Parliament) have ruled out leaving with no deal and tried to  persuade May to strike a Single Market/Customs Union deal (which I see as remain).  Had Labour not been strongly anti no deal - we might well have left on a 'no deal' by default on 29th March - but virtually all Labour MPs voted (and where whipped) against that.

Had every MP (Labour and Tory plus other parties) followed their constituencies wishes, I think we would have left on 29th March, deal or no deal.

I appreciate that many Labour voters are leavers.  I think that many activists are remainers.

In my view the Labour leadership are now moving to be a 'remain' party

[mick miller]

Thanks for clarifying. It remains the same though, as I said, 58.1% ot the votes cast were cast for parties that (at the time, ignoring any switching in the flip flopping Labour party) favour LEAVE (with a deal and preferably with a deal but no deal if necessary) vs. 40.9% for remain.

Now, when I went to school and I admit things may have changed since then, standards and all that, 58% was larger than 40%. No matter how you stretch it, leave won yet again.

Edited May 28, 2019 by mick miller

[old man]

1 hour ago, Walker570 said:

I see slimey Jeremy Hunt has now said that he will not back a no deal scenario.  I wouldn't trust him to do anything, another self server.

All in the eyes?

[oowee]

26 minutes ago, Raja Clavata said:

Yes, a stretch not to include Green as a remain vote and to include Labour and Conservatives in the Leave numbers (even Farage didn't go that far).

It may be convenient to accuse me of head in the sand and fingers in my ears but you appear to have conveniently over-looked the whole debacle in Parliament. If Labour and Conservatives were Leave parties then we would have left on the 29th March?

And if you have strength in your conviction then one might assume you have nothing to fear in confirmatory vote to the public to decide on the specific terms of our divorce from the EU. I am not advocating it per se but just making the point however unpopular it may be with some quarters.

This is about right. Informed analysts have  the split as 44.4 % v's 34.9 % vote share of definite remain v's definite leave. What is clear is the overwhelming desire to see some sort of deal rather than crashing out with no deal. A confirmatory vote would seem to be the most sensible way forward and to see Brexit as a process rather than as a result. Easier and far less expensive to work the country further out than to work back in.