Coronavirus (Covid-19) Is this it?

[WalkedUp]

Reading this as a neutral, it’s clear that everyone is getting the wrong end of each other’s posts. If you were all sat together in a pub you would probably be in agreement but the nuances of language and emotion are lost in these little messages. 

[islandgun]

10 hours ago, grrclark said:

Indeed, that is the absolute hard question in all of this.

If you stop the country people will die as consequence of that.

Even if we took an extreme approach, being an island of purity amongst a sea of poop is no good.  If the poop is washing up on every shore then there is only one inevitability and it’s a smelly one.

So many comments on this thread based on nothing but emotion, understandable, but no way to run a country.

Agreed,  My earlier point about curtailing large gatherings and travel would at best, slow down the inevitable spread. but slowing down is far more preferable than ignoring the problem  

[ditchman]

the health minister nadine doris has tested positive ............................irony ?..................

[blackbird]

For #### sake people want to get a grip, the only people that got to worry are the old farts, all six people that have died are late 70s + with pre existing health issues. Be realistic in my book they have had a good innings anyway.

Edited March 11, 2020 by blackbird

[loriusgarrulus]

14 minutes ago, ditchman said:

the health minister nadine doris has tested positive ............................irony ?..................

A lot of people would probably test positive if they tested everybody. A lot would have had it or have it very mildly. Unless someone knows they have been in contact with it or have full on symptoms many will have had it without knowing.

On the other side a lot with just a common cold will think they have it and do not.

[TIGHTCHOKE]

5 minutes ago, blackbird said:

For #### sake people want to get a grip, the only people that got to worry is the old farts, all six people that have died are late 70s + with pre existing health issues. Be realistic in my book they have had a good innings anyway.

Stop being so damned sensible, the country is apparently meant to be running around like headless chickens, wearing pointless masks and buying up all of the available hand sanitizer, toilet rolls and pasta!

1 minute ago, loriusgarrulus said:

A lot of people would probably test positive if they tested everybody. A lot would have had it or have it very mildly. Unless someone knows they have been in contact with it or have full on symptoms many will have had it without knowing.

On the other side a lot with just a common cold will think they have it and do not.

I wonder how many people have the aforementioned common cold and have phoned work to say they are self isolating themselves?

Edited March 11, 2020 by TIGHTCHOKE

[oldypigeonpopper]

5 minutes ago, blackbird said:

For #### sake people want to get a grip, the only people that got to worry are the old farts, all six people that have died are late 70s + with pre existing health issues. Be realistic in my book they have had a good innings anyway.

hello, WHAT AN ABSOLUTE CRASS STATEMENT, !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ditchman]

9 minutes ago, blackbird said:

For #### sake people want to get a grip, the only people that got to worry are the old farts, all six people that have died are late 70s + with pre existing health issues. Be realistic in my book they have had a good innings anyway.

have you got something against old people.............do you want us out of the way ...are we a drain on soceity..........are you one of those people that think the right to vote should be withdrawn from anyone over 65 ????................

this is the 2nd post that you have eluded to that we dont matter...

[islandgun]

I was watching a TV programme the other night featuring Freddie Flintoff, he was in Weston-super-mare. The streets were thronged with OAP's which made me wonder how the local hospitals would cope if it ever takes hold there, Hence my suggestion that we should be looking at ways to slow it down and allow the authorities time to prepare !............. prepare what im not sure.... but hey

[blackbird]

22 minutes ago, ditchman said:

have you got something against old people.............do you want us out of the way ...are we a drain on soceity..........are you one of those people that think the right to vote should be withdrawn from anyone over 65 ????................

this is the 2nd post that you have eluded to that we dont matter...

No just be realistic man, the life expectancy for a man in the UK is 80 now all SIX people that have died were near that age NOBODY LIVES FOREVER.

Edited March 11, 2020 by blackbird

[welsh1]

54 minutes ago, blackbird said:

For #### sake people want to get a grip, the only people that got to worry are the old farts, all six people that have died are late 70s + with pre existing health issues. Be realistic in my book they have had a good innings anyway.

I had flu two weeks ago, it died off on friday, but i am left with a very nasty chest infection, i am on lots of nice steroids and antibiotics and have enough inhalers to start my own chapter of asthma international.
I'm 54, usually in very good health, walk a lot up the brecons out with dog ,shooting etc, i work on the fourth floor of a building, i usually walk up the stairs but at the moment i am so wiped out the lift is my only option, i physically feel shattered.

If i caught this corona virus now then i think i would be in serious trouble, it only takes a little thing to take you from thinking you are ok and won't have to worry about a poxy virus, to thinking that you don't want to go out into any crowds.

 

[Penelope]

Text from a post on FB that my niece has just posted.

 

This is a picture of my teenage son just getting in from school.

Why is he getting in from school at 10:53am you ask? Schools don't finish until 3pm 🤔

Well the little **** has just been expelled from school for the day after been caught charging students 50p a squirt for hand sanitiser to protect themselfs from the bloody corona virus!! 🙄

Very hard to discipline this behaviour when his dad phones him from work to call him a ******* legend 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

**Edit. I can't keep up with the comments. For those asking, he made £9! He bought a multipack of Doritos and saving the rest to buy a kebab later 🙈 xXx

[Smokersmith]

2 hours ago, blackbird said:

No just be realistic man, the life expectancy for a man in the UK is 80 now all SIX people that have died were near that age NOBODY LIVES FOREVER.

Merkel has just advised Germany that 60-70% of people are likely to become infected.

There's no cure.

Just think about it a bit …..

 

[blackbird]

22 minutes ago, Smokersmith said:

Merkel has just advised Germany that 60-70% of people are likely to become infected.

There's no cure.

Just think about it a bit …..

 

60-70% will get infected but 60-70% will not die from it 
just think about it a bit ......

[Smokersmith]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/italian-doctors-forced-choose-save-coronavirus-12377883/

We're not facing the apocalypse … but looking at the above … it'll not be a cake walk either.

I hope your mindless optimism works for us all.

[blackbird]

Deaths in Italy 631, population of Italy 60.48 million, worlds 2nd % of old age Italy.

[Duckandswing]

A lot of my friends down the legion are old but with plenty of life left and lots to offer. I’d be gutted to lose friends to this no matter what age.

[old'un]

13 minutes ago, blackbird said:

Deaths in Italy 631, population of Italy 60.48 million, worlds 2nd % of old age Italy.

there's not much point in getting old then, here's one solution...

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by old'un

[Lord v]

1 hour ago, blackbird said:

60-70% will get infected but 60-70% will not die from it 
just think about it a bit ......

Germanies population is around 82 million. 60% infection rate gets you 49.2million. 

Mortality rate currently around 2.7% but expected to stabilise around 1% = 492,000 to 1.3million dead.

The official stats based on spread would indicate that the 60% is realistic but towards the top end and with no intervention - China was around 40%. That's around 33 million infected and between 328,000 to 885,600 dead. 

Then the real stuff:

 Severe cases (requiring oxygen and a hospital stay) are around 15% of cases. Very Severe requiring ventilation and ICU care around 5%. Based on the 40% infected rate that's  4.9million severe and 1.6million very severe.

Germany has around 8.27 beds per 1000 people or about 678,000 (UK is about 2.95/1000). Some of which will be obviously be full already.

If the spread isn't controlled and peaks shifted and flattened it will bring any health system to its knees...   

But lets break it down a bit more - I assume like me that you are pretty young between the age of 30 and 40? Best info I could rapidly find was 39.87% of the German population is between 25 and 54.

So 32.7 million. 40% infection rate (could easily be higher for this group as they are working age and more mobile, but lets keep it simple and within known data) = 13 million. Good news is that the mortality rate for this group seems to be 0.2/0.4%. Lets split the difference and say 0.3 = 39,240 dead in this age group. (for comparison the total road deaths in Germany were 3327 in 2016)

There doesn't seem to be any age variation in the severe/very severe cases at the moment, but even if we are charitable and halve the instances to 7.5% and 2.5% respectively (no data to back this up though) you are looking at 975,000 severe and 325,000 very severe people respectively. (How lucky are you feeling now?)

 The real rubbish is that younger, healthier people are going to be hospitalised later than the more vulnerable, so all the beds will be full.....

 

In short - that's why its pretty important we get it under control.

 

Sources:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/oecd-countries-by-hospital-beds.html

https://www.indexmundi.com/germany/age_structure.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

 

[JohnfromUK]

10 minutes ago, Lord v said:

The official stats based on spread would indicate that the 60% is realistic but towards the top end and with no intervention - China was around 40%.

China has had 81,000 cases in a population of 1,400,000,000.  How does that make 40%?

Most of these have been in Wuhan which has a population of about 11,000,000.  So if ALL cases in China were in Wuhan (and most are) - that is still under 1% in Wuhan.

[Retsdon]

5 hours ago, blackbird said:

For #### sake people want to get a grip, the only people that got to worry are the old farts, all six people that have died are late 70s + with pre existing health issues. Be realistic in my book they have had a good innings anyway.

Well, I wouldn't get too complacent. Current death rates in resolved cases (either recovered or died) are :-

Korea - 17.25% , Italy 38.59%, Iran 9.63%, China 4.89%. Other countries aren't really far enough along to get proper data, but in any event, I think there are more people than the old farts that should be worried! 

From the information that's come out of China, the key to reducing death rates is the availability of critical care. You can be young and still die from this virus very easily if you take a turn for the worse and you don't have access to oxygen and a ventilator. And that's why the Italian number is so high. The health service in Lombardy has been overwhelmed.

[fitzy]

We're counting deaths but there are many more that would be dead already if they weren't rigged up to ventilators. It'll soon get to a point where there aren't enough ventilators or treatment facilities to cope. Then hard decisions will need to be made. Without a vaccine, this illness will run and run. A scary prospect. It's essential that the government play it down but COVID-19 is scaring the bejesus out of the medical profession.

[stuartyboy]

6 hours ago, ditchman said:

the health minister nadine doris has tested positive ............................irony ?..................

Yeah the irony. Or she's thinking "screw this, this is too hard to handle. Am away on the sick to watch TV in the house and let someone else deal with it"

[KB1]

5 hours ago, blackbird said:

For #### sake people want to get a grip, the only people that got to worry are the old farts, all six people that have died are late 70s + with pre existing health issues. Be realistic in my book they have had a good innings anyway.

If and when you 'grow up' to be an old ****, you'll hopefully see how disrespectful the above comment is………especially as it's accentuated with an expletive 🙄

[blackbird]

I am just being realistic all 6 that have passed away have all been elderly with pre existing illnesses, on the news last night it was dominated about this virus then the last two minutes they reported that the last makeshifts hospital in Wuhan was being closed Talk about BBC scaremongering 

Edited March 11, 2020 by blackbird