Fast forward to UK population having been vaccinated, what do we think happens next?

[Raja Clavata]

Apologies if this has already been discussed here, or in MSM, but I've not seen any real discussions on the long game with regards COVID and certainly not what the joined up plan is on a global scale. The current focus is, rightly so, on getting everybody eligible and willing to have one of the vaccines in the UK to do so.

My question is what happens next? Assume we fast forward to a time later this year when the UK population is vaccinated - what do we think happens next?

Surely until such time that everyone on the planet has been vaccinated we stand zero chance of properly getting the virus under control or eradicating it?

Is there going to be a global effort for developed nations to fund vaccine roll-out across the globe, I know that kind of foreign aid model will drive some apoplectic but what is the alternative? Whilst there's plenty of people around the world who are not vaccinated then the virus can mutate and come back and re-infect others on a mass scale.

Is there a plan to address this that anyone is aware of?

[bluesj]

My guess would be that once case numbers are down and staying down be that this year next year or the one after each county will open up to other that are in the same situation for travel but I think travel will be stopped pdq if case numbers start going up

[Vince Green]

Well lets start with the obvious, once everyone is vaccinated the number of cases and deaths in the UK should drop to virtually zero, theoretically.

Vaccinating the world is not a viable option.

Mutations like the one in Brazil, if its contained in Brazil, should eventually  burn themselves out naturally. Only problem is we will have to remain isolated from them.

Before I was sent to West Africa I had to go to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in London and get jabs , for Cholera Typhoid, yellow fever and something else.

while I was away I had to take malaria tablets every day   

Edited January 22, 2021 by Vince Green

[KB1]

Interesting Aussie perspective……..

 

 

[Cosmicblue]

It's a valid question.

I rather fear, given that we are dealing with a virus which by it's very nature will continue to mutate that it will be a case of going back to square one and re-vaccinating the population with the next variant - like the flu-jab cycle we already have but on a much broader scale.

On a wider, global, point travel is going to be more complex as other countries around the world will be much slower in deploying vaccinations to the populace and that's going to limit the destinations available - some travel industry analysts are suggesting 2024 before a sense of 2019-like normality returns.     

[DUNKS]

The vaccinations surely wont eradicate the virus. It will stop us from getting sick from it, but it will still be out there getting passed from one to another. slowly killing off all the old and the sick who have refused the jab.

JMHO

[Cosmicblue]

Serious diseases  i.e. Smallpox, have been virtually eradicated through mass vaccinations over time haven't they?  If the virus hasn't got a host, somewhere to suitable to reside and multiply it will, eventually, die.

[eggy74]

The virus isnt going to go away, regardless of the vaccine. It will mutate and keep coming back, in the same way flu does, and it will be dealt with in the same way as the flu with yearly shots being given to the vulnerable. When you catch a cold, you are actually catching one of over 2000 different viruses we collectively call "the common cold". they have been around since the dawn of humanity and we have over the eons built up resistance to them and they are only dangerous to the elderly or those with compromised immune systems. the flu will eventually join the other 2000 viruses in  being less deadly as time passes and covid will one day do the same. in the mean time they are endemic and generally getting weaker with every mutation. 

[Dave at kelton]

Not trying to be pessimistic but surely we are facing this for years to come. Nobody yet knows what the consequence of mass vaccination will be, how long it will last or how it will reduce cases or deaths. My take is we will be in a guinea pig society for the foreseeable future. Even if the boffins have got it right and we all had 100% immunity that will not restore public confidence until it is experienced first hand. That will surely be the case internationally. I cannot see other governments taking risks even if all travellers have had the jag.

Restoration of public confidence will take a long time, particularly amongst those at the top end of the age range or with underlying problems. This will surely have a knock on effect in the economy. So short term, in my eyes two years, I see little change to life with people being cautious and businesses suffering accordingly.

[Gordon R]

Quote

Is there going to be a global effort for developed nations to fund vaccine roll-out across the globe, I know that kind of foreign aid model will drive some apoplectic but what is the alternative?

It is a valid question that has been posed by Raja.

As for funding other countries - it might be sensible, it might be laudable, but I don't see it happening for a number of reasons:-

1. Economies will be in such a mess that few will want to increase spending.

2. A percentage of people will refuse the vaccine, maybe even whole countries.

3. If money is given, what chance is there that corrupt countries will use the money for that purpose?

4. If the aid is provided in vaccine form, rather than money, who will administer the vaccine?

5. How do illegals, terrorists, etc get the vaccine?

I just see too many obstacles for it to happen.

 

I was talking to a nurse this morning and the feeling of a few NHS professionals is that nothing will be back to any sort of normality until next year. 

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, Dave at kelton said:

Restoration of public confidence will take a long time, particularly amongst those at the top end of the age range or with underlying problems. This will surely have a knock on effect in the economy. So short term, in my eyes two years, I see little change to life with people being cautious and businesses suffering accordingly.

I'm wondering how long it will take to get all or most of the over 60s the vaccine,  if that can be done by spring then I'm expecting a roll out of the dreaded tier system again. 

Hopefully if those most at risk are protected then the shops, pubs restaurants and work places can re-open. 

Schools might not be back till after Easter which seems like a long time.

[Scully]

Whatever happens, I’d like to think the Chinese were put under some kind of pressure to pay their part to fund foreign aid, given their talent for creating or spreading viruses.
It isn’t going to happen ( you will never find a communist state acknowledging a failing ) but it would be nice. 

[12gauge82]

34 minutes ago, Scully said:

Whatever happens, I’d like to think the Chinese were put under some kind of pressure to pay their part to fund foreign aid, given their talent for creating or spreading viruses.
It isn’t going to happen ( you will never find a communist state acknowledging a failing ) but it would be nice. 

Yes it's a good point and the whole where did this virus come from debate has gone very, very quiet lately, which makes me more suspicious tbh. 

[Raja Clavata]

2 hours ago, Gordon R said:

It is a valid question that has been posed by Raja.

As for funding other countries - it might be sensible, it might be laudable, but I don't see it happening for a number of reasons:-

1. Economies will be in such a mess that few will want to increase spending.

2. A percentage of people will refuse the vaccine, maybe even whole countries.

3. If money is given, what chance is there that corrupt countries will use the money for that purpose?

4. If the aid is provided in vaccine form, rather than money, who will administer the vaccine?

5. How do illegals, terrorists, etc get the vaccine?

I just see too many obstacles for it to happen.

 

I was talking to a nurse this morning and the feeling of a few NHS professionals is that nothing will be back to any sort of normality until next year. 

Good points Gordon and appreciate you picking up on the main point of my original post.

I tend to agree in principle but also believe as the true implications of the global aspect unravel it will be difficult to adopt a position of “I’m / we’re alright Jack”. It’s too short sighted in my opinion.

Regarding normality and normal, I’m not really sure what that means any more. The night of the November lockdown coming into force I was out for dinner with a friend and predicted things would be much better by mid year. I remain hopeful.

[Raja Clavata]

1 hour ago, Scully said:

Whatever happens, I’d like to think the Chinese were put under some kind of pressure to pay their part to fund foreign aid, given their talent for creating or spreading viruses.
It isn’t going to happen ( you will never find a communist state acknowledging a failing ) but it would be nice. 

You’re right, not gonna happen.

Also, it seems to have been forgotten but it was previously established that the Wuhan variant was the third strain of the virus.

[Gordon R]

Quote

I tend to agree in principle but also believe as the true implications of the global aspect unravel it will be difficult to adopt a position of “I’m / we’re alright Jack”. It’s too short sighted in my opinion.

I can't disagree, but honestly wonder how a world consensus could be reached. In a fair world, perhaps China could foot the bill for the lot. I suspect the Chinese might not be throwing vaccines at the Muslim population. Will North Korea vaccinate all of their own or help other countries? Every country that could afford to help, but refuses, throws a heavier burden on the rest.

Short sighted it may end up, but I don't see a worldwide response. It would be nice to be proved wrong.

[ordnance]

4 hours ago, DUNKS said:

The vaccinations surely wont eradicate the virus. It will stop us from getting sick from it, but it will still be out there getting passed from one to another. slowly killing off all the old and the sick who have refused the jab.

JMHO

I don't think they know yet, some people are under the illusion that if most people get the vaccine they won't need it. But as you say if most are vaccinated and they lift the restrictions, the virus could eventually infect the whole population. 

2 hours ago, Scully said:

Whatever happens, I’d like to think the Chinese were put under some kind of pressure to pay their part to fund foreign aid, given their talent for creating or spreading viruses.
It isn’t going to happen ( you will never find a communist state acknowledging a failing ) but it would be nice. 

Why a virus can start in any country, they reckon the Spanish flu started in America. 

[Scully]

5 minutes ago, ordnance said:

 

Why a virus can start in any country, they reckon the Spanish flu started in America. 

Of course they can, but the Chinese appear to have a knack for it. No one seems to be able to explain why. 

[ordnance]

1 minute ago, Scully said:

Of course they can, but the Chinese appear to have a knack for it. No one seems to be able to explain why. 

Yes they do. 

[oowee]

The vaccine will drop the infection to very low levels as the viral load is reduced and transmission dwindles and we can move on. 

China will offer up its vaccine for leverage value to third world countries further pushing out the West.

Legal action will begin against UK Govt from patients suffering covid post vaccine, for a breach of consent over 2nd jab moving to 12 weeks.

Major rethink (funding) needed for NHS to catch up on patient backlog.

[AVB]

8 hours ago, oowee said:

The vaccine will drop the infection to very low levels as the viral load is reduced and transmission dwindles and we can move on. 

China will offer up its vaccine for leverage value to third world countries further pushing out the West.

Legal action will begin against UK Govt from patients suffering covid post vaccine, for a breach of consent over 2nd jab moving to 12 weeks.

Major rethink (funding) needed for NHS to catch up on patient backlog.

Let’s look at Israel. 40% of the population vaccinated but minimal reduction in infections/deaths so far. 

[Stonepark]

We were so successful with protecting the vulnerable from the flu (which historically led to the deaths of a lot of the vulnerable population but which the majority of the healthy population only had cold like symptoms) that when a 'new' virus acting in the body in a different way came along, no one was prepared for the outcome as we had avoided such an outcome for a generation.

 

Covid, just like the flu is now endemic, as even the experts admit that all the vaccine does is protect you from its severest form, but does not stop you getting it or passing it on.

 

Covid like the flu is going to die down each summer due to increased UV both killing particles and increasing Vit D levels in people at our latitudes.

 

As it mutates on a sub-annual basis, the vaccines are always going to be required for the vulnerable in order to preserve life but the vast majority of the healthy population do not need them and should be allowed to get on with their lives.

 

With it unlikely that vaccination will get more than 60% of people and the vaccine only being 60% effective, only 36% will truly be protected at any one time, but 100% of the people will still be able to transmit the virus.

 

The virus is not going anywhere and in order to minimise the effects (if we wish to minimise deaths), some practises will need to change due to its airborne nature.

 

Where is the only place that people go, spend an hour mixing with strangers and which has probably resulted in the ongoing spread of the virus.... supermarkets.

 

As the virus is airborne, the first requirement is that all food shops (and other employment premises and offices) should have UV treated air conditioning to kill the virus, nearly all installed air conditioning does not have this facility due to the extra cost of installing and maintenance, even though the technology is decades old and proven.

 

The preference (driven by cost savings, not general health or mental health) for open plan offices, hot desking and agile working (operating offices at full capacity as much as feasible) are all dependent on no significant airborne transmissible viruses.

 

Most manual jobs are actually in a better position due to higher ventilation and lower people density requirements (slaughter houses etc excepted).

 

There is no reason for most trades not to be carrying out work if they can manage to keep seperate from occupants or avoid significant bottle necks like lunch cabins where 10 people sit in a 10ft by 10ft by 7ft steel box with little ventilation to eat.

 

Unfortunately the government's are not good at common sense.

[oowee]

3 hours ago, Stonepark said:

 

With it unlikely that vaccination will get more than 60% of people and the vaccine only being 60% effective, only 36% will truly be protected at any one time, but 100% of the people will still be able to transmit the virus.

As the virus is airborne, the first requirement is that all food shops (and other employment premises and offices) should have UV treated air conditioning to kill the virus, nearly all installed air conditioning does not have this facility due to the extra cost of installing and maintenance, even though the technology is decades old and proven.

The virus is not truly airborn. 

The vaccine is +80% or so effective. Whilst people can still catch and transmit the virus the viral load is significantly reduced so the transmission from those vaccinated will be a lot less than otherwise. Also less people will get the virus after vaccination so overall transmission rates will be significantly lower. 

Aircon might not have uv but it could have these heppa filters (?). 

[Yellow Bear]

1 hour ago, oowee said:

but it could have these heppa filters

Whilst they may have some effect unless it has changed dramatically over the last 7 years (which I doubt) you will only find heppas in operating theatres, icu and some ccu (burns units),  and ultra clean manufacturing.

[oowee]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Bear said:

Whilst they may have some effect unless it has changed dramatically over the last 7 years (which I doubt) you will only find heppas in operating theatres, icu and some ccu (burns units),  and ultra clean manufacturing.

I don't claim to know anything about them but i heard they were in planes and now cruise liners. Even in vacuum cleaners now apparently.