Why is the death rate still so high?

[fern01]

I can't understand why when we have vaccinated nearly 11 million of the most vulnerable people and 3.8 million have tested positive and presumably now have some sort of immunity is the death rate so high?

Today over 1000 deaths were reported

Can anyone explain?

Edited February 5, 2021 by fern01

[Scully]

The death rate is coming down each day as far as I’m aware. 

[Rewulf]

Death rates are going down , but theres thousands of people seriously I'll in hospital already, they cant be vaccinated, and many wont make it. 

Things will improve drastically in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

[henry d]

The nightly data shows 3 graphics usually, deaths lag the others so will always be higher. ATM numbers testing positive will be lowest, hospitalisation slightly higher, deaths higher still. If it was the reverse we are up the creek without a paddle.

[TRINITY]

You must remember those death rates are for people diagnosed in the last 28 days. There is a considerable time lag many will have got infected around Christmas the new year. Early January started to develop illness and that's when they were first diagnosed with covid. Their illness develops and it could have taken a further week or two to pass away. Then it can be several days before the paperwork etc is eventually registered and they become one more sad statistic.

[AVB]

10 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

You must remember those death rates are for people diagnosed in the last 28 days. There is a considerable time lag many will have got infected around Christmas the new year. Early January started to develop illness and that's when they were first diagnosed with covid. Their illness develops and it could have taken a further week or two to pass away. Then it can be several days before the paperwork etc is eventually registered and they become one more sad statistic.

Not necessarily days but weeks. Some of the deaths reported in a day ‘happened’ back as far as November. 
 

but the main reason for people still dying is the fact that they would have died anyway - old age or serious illness. 

[Lloyd90]

1 hour ago, AVB said:

Not necessarily days but weeks. Some of the deaths reported in a day ‘happened’ back as far as November. 
 

but the main reason for people still dying is the fact that they would have died anyway - old age or serious illness. 

Yes plenty of elderly people who didn’t have long left. I’m not sure they would have “died anyway” as in just so quick, they would have died eventually, but Covid is speeding things along. 
 

I had an emergency call out last night and had to rush some documents over to one of the trusts Doctors to be signed off out of hours, she also over sees the care homes in the area. 
 

She said they have had the same number of deaths in the last 3 months as they did in the entire 12 months previously. But said it’s a lot of people in their 80’s and 90’s. Once they get it there’s no fighting it off. 

[Walker570]

Yes, I am still a bit sceptical as to how these deaths are recorded.  Is corvid the main reason that person died or is it just added to the death certificate anyway, although that person was on the way out through other factors?  Captain Sir Tom, had underlying health problems with pneumonia before he contracted corvid.  The media etc all put his demise down to corvid when there was a good chance the pneumonia would have taken him anyway.  I have not seen what scare stories there is in the media this morning but the half page picture of the embalmer working on a corvid victim in the Telegraph was beyond the pale.   I don't see any numbers on the cancer or heart patients who have died in the last twelve months because they could not get treatment. 

 

[mel b3]

6 minutes ago, Walker570 said:

Yes, I am still a bit sceptical as to how these deaths are recorded.  Is corvid the main reason that person died or is it just added to the death certificate anyway, although that person was on the way out through other factors?  Captain Sir Tom, had underlying health problems with pneumonia before he contracted corvid.  The media etc all put his demise down to corvid when there was a good chance the pneumonia would have taken him anyway.  I have not seen what scare stories there is in the media this morning but the half page picture of the embalmer working on a corvid victim in the Telegraph was beyond the pale.   I don't see any numbers on the cancer or heart patients who have died in the last twelve months because they could not get treatment. 

 

I'm not completely sure on this point nev ,but my understanding was the pneumonia was caused by covid , that was certainly the case with my sister . The doctors also told her that it will leave her with permanent scars on her lungs ,  I'm also not sure if that's strictly accurate , or if it's just the doctors way of explaining it in layman's terms 👍. 

[paul1966]

13 minutes ago, mel b3 said:

I'm not completely sure on this point nev ,but my understanding was the pneumonia was caused by covid , that was certainly the case with my sister . The doctors also told her that it will leave her with permanent scars on her lungs ,  I'm also not sure if that's strictly accurate , or if it's just the doctors way of explaining it in layman's terms 👍. 

You are correct that covid causes pneumonia, but there are other things that can cause it too, i know when i had covid pneumonia i was put on steroids and also antibiotics in case the pneumonia was not caused by the covid. As to the scars on lungs has your sister been told she will be called in for an xray? i have just had to go for an xray after 8 weeks  to check for any scarring, i am waiting for a doctor from the hospital to ring with the results.

[mel b3]

1 hour ago, paul1966 said:

You are correct that covid causes pneumonia, but there are other things that can cause it too, i know when i had covid pneumonia i was put on steroids and also antibiotics in case the pneumonia was not caused by the covid. As to the scars on lungs has your sister been told she will be called in for an xray? i have just had to go for an xray after 8 weeks  to check for any scarring, i am waiting for a doctor from the hospital to ring with the results.

I know that steroids , antibiotics , and oxygen ,was the main treatment that my sister received ,but she hasn't mentioned a return to hospital for x rays. 

To be honest,  it's quite difficult to speak to her about it . She's the most , calm , level headed , and strong , 50 year old woman that you'll ever meet(she had no worries at all about covid) , but her week vomiting blood , then two weeks in hospital with covid have left her traumatised . She was told how serious her condition was and that she needed to be in intensive care , but they had no icu beds , so she just lay their waiting for her turn to die . She cries every time that she talks about it , and shes stuck on the other patients that died around her . on one occasion,  they wheeled four bodies out together , and it really hit her hard . All of the folks that think that covid is just a bit of a cold , really haven’t seen the grizzly reality of it yet , and hopefully most of them never will.

Edited to add.

I've just spoken to my sister . She's wearing an oxygen monitor , and so far her oxygen has remained pretty stable (although a bit low), and she has to have a hospital covid test on Tuesday,  then go into strict isolation at home for ten days , then go to Birmingham treatment centre to have a camera job to try to find out why she was vomiting so much blood.

Edited February 6, 2021 by mel b3

[dead eye alan]

14 hours ago, fern01 said:

I can't understand why when we have vaccinated nearly 11 million of the most vulnerable people and 3.8 million have tested positive and presumably now have some sort of immunity is the death rate so high?

Today over 1000 deaths were reported

Can anyone explain?

Inflated numbers due to the way its counted, apparently their are only about 100 deaths from flu so far this winter normal year its about 6000?

My neighbor died of septicemia went down as covid death because he was infected in hospital. 

[Cosmicblue]

 

The 1000 deaths a day, the patients that are dying now were admitted 2-4 weeks plus ago before the vaccination program could make a significant difference to the numbers. 

I have it on good authority from an ITU nurse (who is unsurprisingly absolutely shattered) that patients that end up being admitted to hospital are in deep trouble already - some with no underlying health conditions which is a significant difference between this year and the spring of 2020.  It is also the case that the patients are younger 40s-60s this time around.  Most patients receive oxygen whilst conscious and make a recovery however for the unfortunates that get put on a ventilator - they mostly die. 

From the statistics we know that the detected infection rates are falling (has about halved in the last two weeks) and that's been seen in the hospitals who are seeing the admission rate slowing this week. 

The quoted Covid death rate numbers do come with a caveat statement that the deceased had tested positive for Covid in the last 28 days - so that doesn't implicitly mean that they all died of the C-19 virus and that it could be some other reason for the unscheduled departure.

The BBC chart below based below is a really good example of how statistics can distort reality - we could conclude that the only way people leave hospital is by dying because the daily decline of people in hospital is roughly equal to the number of daily deaths and that can't truly be the case.

So as the lockdown we are all enduring bites into the rate of infection and decreases the rate of hospital admissions and the vaccinations program accelerates (nudging 500,000 a day is an incredible achievement) there is a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel. 

 

 

 

[AVB]

1 hour ago, Cosmicblue said:

 

The 1000 deaths a day, the patients that are dying now were admitted 2-4 weeks plus ago before the vaccination program could make a significant difference to the numbers. 

I have it on good authority from an ITU nurse (who is unsurprisingly absolutely shattered) that patients that end up being admitted to hospital are in deep trouble already - some with no underlying health conditions which is a significant difference between this year and the spring of 2020.  It is also the case that the patients are younger 40s-60s this time around.  Most patients receive oxygen whilst conscious and make a recovery however for the unfortunates that get put on a ventilator - they mostly die. 

 

 

 

 

I know doctors and nurses are quoted as saying that patients are younger but the ONS stats don’t show that. Last year and this the over 55's represent 75% (range 73-78%) of admissions. And that is consistent month on month. 

[TRINITY]

2 minutes ago, AVB said:

I know doctors and nurses are quoted as saying that patients are younger but the ONS stats don’t show that. Last year and this the over 55's represent 75% (range 73-78%) of admissions. And that is consistent month on month. 

From what I have seen weight also seems to be a big factor. I know it's hard to quantify but many people you see lying on beds seriously  ill look obese,  my opinion only but that's the impression I get

[Stonepark]

9 minutes ago, TRINITY said:

From what I have seen weight also seems to be a big factor. I know it's hard to quantify but many people you see lying on beds seriously  ill look obese,  my opinion only but that's the impression I get

Lower But D level per kilo, not the fat itself that is the problem is one of the factors.

[islandgun]

6 hours ago, mel b3 said:

I know that steroids , antibiotics , and oxygen ,was the main treatment that my sister received ,but she hasn't mentioned a return to hospital for x rays. 

To be honest,  it's quite difficult to speak to her about it . She's the most , calm , level headed , and strong , 50 year old woman that you'll ever meet(she had no worries at all about covid) , but her week vomiting blood , then two weeks in hospital with covid have left her traumatised . She was told how serious her condition was and that she needed to be in intensive care , but they had no icu beds , so she just lay their waiting for her turn to die . She cries every time that she talks about it , and shes stuck on the other patients that died around her . on one occasion,  they wheeled four bodies out together , and it really hit her hard . All of the folks that think that covid is just a bit of a cold , really haven’t seen the grizzly reality of it yet , and hopefully most of them never will.

Edited to add.

I've just spoken to my sister . She's wearing an oxygen monitor , and so far her oxygen has remained pretty stable (although a bit low), and she has to have a hospital covid test on Tuesday,  then go into strict isolation at home for ten days , then go to Birmingham treatment centre to have a camera job to try to find out why she was vomiting so much blood.

That some read 😟.. I hope your sister makes a full recovery soon

[TRINITY]

14 minutes ago, Stonepark said:

Lower But D level per kilo, not the fat itself that is the problem is one of the factors.

Vit D is a fat soluble molecule and the excess fat binds it like you say. There is also some suggestion that the extra weight around the middle puts pressure on the diaphram, that's not what you want with breathing issues

[bruno22rf]

mel b3, sincerely hope your sister  makes a full recovery, sometimes the pain felt by family members when a brother or sister is in danger is overlooked, she has my best wishes.

[sabel25]

I am sorry to hear these terrible stories and my heart goes out to all. I too learned of good working friends from the past that have lost out to corvid

I detest the scum that say it's a hoax. I live in a nice area in the countryside and we have been invaded with scum from the cities thieving and partying. in our area

I've had the police out Taken reg plates and so have my neighbours. I think it is time to apply to DEFRA for another species to be added to the vermin list???

[mel b3]

4 hours ago, islandgun said:

That some read 😟.. I hope your sister makes a full recovery soon

 

4 hours ago, bruno22rf said:

mel b3, sincerely hope your sister  makes a full recovery, sometimes the pain felt by family members when a brother or sister is in danger is overlooked, she has my best wishes.

Cheers gents . She actually sounded quite upbeat when I spoke to her this morning  . The frightening part , is that in relative terms , she only had a gentle brush with covid . Lots of younger people might not die from covid , but it's leaving them with life altering , or life shortening issues.  It's just another aspect of covid that we won't really see for a while yet .

When she came out of hospital , she said that her biggest worry had been me . She knew how I'll she was , and she thought that me being older and fatter , with lung damage from years of heavy smoking and working with chemicals,  that it would be sure to hit me even harder , and that every trolley that was wheeled onto the covid ward , would have me laying on it . 

My lungs and being a fat lump were my main concerns about getting covid,  that's why I was up and out at 4.30 am every morning before work , to try and do some hard walking and get my lungs working .

[GingerCat]

My understanding of it, and I may be wrong, is that if you die within 28 days of being diagnosed with covid its a covid related death. 

Regardless of the reason you actually died. So the figures are a bit skewed. 

[Vince Green]

18 minutes ago, GingerCat said:

My understanding of it, and I may be wrong, is that if you die within 28 days of being diagnosed with covid its a covid related death. 

Regardless of the reason you actually died. So the figures are a bit skewed. 

So what happens if you die of covid but have been in hospital for 30 days?

A number of younger people with post covid are dying unexpectedly a couple of months after being declared cured and sent home.

 Often from blood clots and sepsis. Is that a covid death?

Chances are they wouldn't have died if they hadn't had covid. in the first place

Edited February 18, 2021 by Vince Green

[GingerCat]

No idea. The only but I've read is the 28 days of having covid and its a covid death regardless. 

[Rewulf]

23 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

So what happens if you die of covid but have been in hospital for 30 days?

I think you answered your own question there ?
What they are saying is if you die of , for example heart disease, within 28 days of a positive covid test, you get put on the covid death stats.
You COULD have been asymptomatic, but in effect, you died of covid too.
Very few other nations use this rule.

27 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

A number of younger people with post covid are dying unexpectedly a couple of months after being declared cured and sent home.

I would imagine the source of this scary information wouldnt actually put 'a number' on these deaths ?
It wouldnt be the first time a young person died from something before their time ?
However....

29 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Often from blood clots and sepsis. Is that a covid death?

I would say that is a death from blood clots or sepsis ?
Something that doesnt seem to be a common symptom of 99.99% in 'covid deaths' of any age.
However ... A doctor who is preparing a death certificate , and learns they recently were afflicted or tested *** with covid , would likely put 'covid related' on said certificate, whether it had anything to do with it or not, it doesnt need to be proved, just 'suspected'
This is all part of the special rules / measures allowed in ascertaining covid deaths.
Dying 'with covid' doesnt require a covid test and inflates the official tested deaths by around 10 - 15 thousand.

As Ive said before, I personally know of 3 people in the last 10 months who have died of terminal illness and non covid disease, non were aged.
All were put down as covid or covid related deaths, only one had a test, which was negative.

35 minutes ago, Vince Green said:

Chances are they wouldn't have died if they hadn't had covid. in the first place

That, is something totally impossible to surmise surely ?