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Coronavirus (Covid-19) Is this it?


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13 hours ago, grrclark said:

The market will recover though, more of an issue is the loss of revenue in hotel bookings, flights, etc as that cannot really be made up. Likewise with delayed purchase of physical goods.


There’s a tipping point where a perfectly viable business is starved of revenue whilst enduring all of its usual operating costs.

The obvious ones are airlines and tourism - all those employees, all those fixed costs and continuing obligations and no revenue. How long can they last? Then there’s the hotels and the resorts that they feed into and so on.

Add in failing consumer confidence as people sit on money for a rainy day - at this moment in time do you see anyone wanting to splash out on a new car or a conservatory?

They need to pull some pretty big rabbits out of the hat at the next budget...

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15 hours ago, Retsdon said:

That's almost certainly how the officials in Wuhan were thinking initially - until it was too late. What's frightening is that this thing seems to remain almost dormant until a significant number of people are infected and then all of a sudden comes this massive exponential growth. If you read the details of 'new infections' from around the globe here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/ it's remarkable how many are of the 'visited Italy' or 'returned from Iran' variety. During the time that these people would have been in Italy or Iran the epidemics there were supposedly in their infancy with only a few cases reported. And yet after spending only a few days in country these visitors are infected. How is that possible  unless there are far more cases out there than are realized.

No, I think far better to err on the side of caution because by the time it becomes 'a worry' the cat will be well and truly out of the bag and society is in Wuhan country.

Too big a reaction too soon is just as damaging, if you take a very authoritarian approach you cause other social harm,  There is a point of balance.

 

9 hours ago, Mungler said:


There’s a tipping point where a perfectly viable business is starved of revenue whilst enduring all of its usual operating costs.

The obvious ones are airlines and tourism - all those employees, all those fixed costs and continuing obligations and no revenue. How long can they last? Then there’s the hotels and the resorts that they feed into and so on.

Add in failing consumer confidence as people sit on money for a rainy day - at this moment in time do you see anyone wanting to splash out on a new car or a conservatory?

They need to pull some pretty big rabbits out of the hat at the next budget...

Indeed, transient variation in the stock market is less concerning, but the impact of goods and services not being sold, rather than just a temporary delay is very damaging.

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17 hours ago, Retsdon said:

T remarkable how many are of the 'visited Italy' or 'returned from Iran' variety. During the time that these people would have been in Italy or Iran the epidemics there were supposedly in their infancy with only a few cases reported. And yet after spending only a few days in country these visitors are infected. How is that possible  unless there are far more cases out there than are realized.

 

Extremely plausible to suggest that . It could be far more people have the virus and dont even realise the fact. In a perverse sort of way this is a little more reassuring because the death rate as a percentage of infected people would be far lower than is presently quoted. 

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4 minutes ago, blackbird said:

If this virus really kicks off big time I really do hope the very young get priority over the old farts if push comes to shove, as the most vulnerable are the young & older generations.

Apparently it affects the young very mildly: even in China there has not been a single child fatality (I understand).

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On 06/03/2020 at 20:02, grrclark said:

Exactly and as yet for something that is still statistically tiny.

Why people would be making significant fundamental change to their lives with something of a less than .000003% likelihood (for the time being) is mental.

Sure when that number increases then behaviour has to change, but just now it’s crazy.  Unless there was 100% observance by everyone then behavioural change right now makes no difference at that percentile.

Because the media's coverage is bubonic!

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5 hours ago, Penelope said:

Because the media's coverage is bubonic!

In Wuhan, at the height of the epidemic, they had vans driving around neighborhoods collecting the bodies...the old bring out your dead style of circa 1348. So perhaps bubonic coverage is appropriate.

https://hoodsite.com/coronavirus-wuhan-funeral-parlor-recruits-20-late-shift-corpse-movers-at-a-high-salary-as-bodies-start-piling-up-in-the-streets

 

 

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It’s all getting a little silly now; a woman was in my OH’s place of work yesterday. She is a teacher and she said there have been kids in tears at school, thinking everyone is going to die! One little girl was in hysterics because her Dad was going to Amsterdam on business! The school had to call her mother to come and collect her. 
Adults need to get a grip. 

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18 hours ago, blackbird said:

The old farts better start digging then 😀

well thank you very much.............once us old silver surfers and leg gassers go ...pigeonwatch will close down..:P

at least we know who our friends are now...:big_boss:

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8 minutes ago, Scully said:

Adults need to get a grip. 

Couldn’t agree more. I popped into Aldi on the way home from work on Thursday to pick up a bag of salad and a lasagna for tea, couldn’t actually believe my eyes. Now I do agree with preparation should the 14 day self isolation hit masses but the panic buying was insane. The lady in front of me had three full shopping trolleys, 1 was loaded with toilet paper, the 2nd full of cleaning products and the 3rd cans and pasta, £280 she spent, in Aldi! Utter madness.

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24 minutes ago, Scully said:

It’s all getting a little silly now; a woman was in my OH’s place of work yesterday. She is a teacher and she said there have been kids in tears at school, thinking everyone is going to die! One little girl was in hysterics because her Dad was going to Amsterdam on business! The school had to call her mother to come and collect her. 
Adults need to get a grip. 

^^^^ This. 

The media have a lot to answer for!

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3 minutes ago, ShootingEgg said:

So how many people in here have bought all the loo rolls.

Not guilty!  I bought a bulk pack about a couple of months ago and still plenty in the cupboard.  Like many people - I buy when things are 'on offer', and so have a habit of having a few of all 'non perishables' in the store cupboard always, so I haven't bought any extra of anything. 

I don't like having 'no stock' of things I use regularly - whether it be loo rolls, cartridges, teabags, baked beans ........ just the way I was brought up I guess.

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1 hour ago, JohnfromUK said:

Not guilty!  I bought a bulk pack about a couple of months ago and still plenty in the cupboard.  Like many people - I buy when things are 'on offer', and so have a habit of having a few of all 'non perishables' in the store cupboard always, so I haven't bought any extra of anything. 

I don't like having 'no stock' of things I use regularly - whether it be loo rolls, cartridges, teabags, baked beans ........ just the way I was brought up I guess.

I think it's where your from as well, I've been snowed in twice since moving where we are now so running out of bog roll this time of year is not ideal as the nearest shop is the best part of a 5 mile walk. 

That and the fact since my missus moved in toilet roll consumption went up from roughly 1 roll or so a week to much,much more I tend to try not to run out 😂.

I did have a conversation with a woman I worked with once who lived in the middle of the nearest town, she said she'd hate to live where I did as you couldn't just 'pop to the shop for a pint of milk' I did try and explain to her that not only did Tesco sell milk in greater volumes that 1 pint I was also clued up enough to know how much milk I needed a week so I tended not to just run out. Think she was a little bit insulted 😂

But yes, the whole panic buying is ridiculous.

Edited by Farmboy91
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Let's face it...half the uk population could do with going without food for a few days and live off their store of body fat!  As long as women😉 are able to check their Facebook 'status' (whatever that means?) then they'll cope!   Seriously though, I know that it's a worry for lots of people but, in perspective, 3000 deaths WORLDWIDE is a drop in the ocean!  Flu and malaria kills more people per year. Finally, if anyone has any problem sourcing food, just give me a call and you can come round and rummage in the wife's ARMAGEDDON store! Ooh er missus!   As long as you don't mind tins that are 5 years out of date!  

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15 minutes ago, DoolinDalton said:

Let's face it...half the uk population could do with going without food for a few days and live off their store of body fat!  As long as women😉 are able to check their Facebook 'status' (whatever that means?) then they'll cope!   Seriously though, I know that it's a worry for lots of people but, in perspective, 3000 deaths WORLDWIDE is a drop in the ocean!  Flu and malaria kills more people per year. Finally, if anyone has any problem sourcing food, just give me a call and you can come round and rummage in the wife's ARMAGEDDON store! Ooh er missus!   As long as you don't mind tins that are 5 years out of date!  

I can top 5 years, last year I was digging through my Nan's cupboard for some tinned tomatoes and found some water chestnuts that past their best in 1999, the best bit is when I showed her she wouldn't let me throw them away 🤣

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