LIFTING THE LOCKDOWN!

[Retsdon]

40 minutes ago, Lord v said:

The current research shows outside transmission is greatly reduced

Unless you're sharing food and utensils - not just greatly reduced but virtually negligible. There's absolutely no reason why people shouldn't be outside. 

[Jaymo]

7 minutes ago, Retsdon said:

Unless you're sharing food and utensils - not just greatly reduced but virtually negligible. There's absolutely no reason why people shouldn't be outside. 

Try telling that to some here 🙈

[Mice!]

55 minutes ago, Lord v said:

If you can't work from home you need to get back to work. 

Fines for those breaking social distancing have gone up. 

Yr R, 1 and 6 maybe back 1st June. Maybe some shops. 

But people with kids not going back to school won't be able to return to work,  so if your employer says your coming back where is that going to leave people?

My kids want to be back at school,  my daughter was gutted her year wasn't going back.

Being able to go further a field with family will obviously be nice.

36 minutes ago, AVB said:

Also the lockdown seems to be driven by the situation in care homes. But care homes are in strict lockdown so how does what goes on in the outside world affect them. 

Are you saying no staff are leaving care homes? Are they not shopping for food or using public transport?

 

[Dave-G]

2 hours ago, toontastic said:

Tell us again what your stance is in going out shooting.

That will be done after driving a two miles alone late at night on unlisted roads, then carrying a lightweight rifle walking about for exercise alone in deserted private fields. All done many many many times further away from anyone on any part of a housing estate or town.  :-)

[stumfelter]

3 hours ago, AVB said:

Well that was a damp squib. I think we are all ****** now. If I had any hope left that the economy wasn’t going to be completely toasted that has now been dashed. 
 

Watch for the banks to start crashing.  

I bet your a barrel of laughs at parties....😁😁

[AVB]

5 minutes ago, stumfelter said:

I bet your a barrel of laughs at parties....😁😁

Only when I drink. And the management of this is driving me to drink! 

[7daysinaweek]

4 hours ago, Mungler said:

Quite, I work to the assumption that all the European countries save for the Germans will be significantly cooking their books because that’s what they do in every other respect.

Whilst there is some fog in the German stats they do appear more focused on individual treatment and catching problem cases early and this saving lives.

If you phone 111, unless you are coughing up blood or have a recognised and diagnosed co-morbidity then they will just mug you off with paracetamol and lots of fluids. However if you have falling blood O2 levels (which they can’t assess over the phone) then neither you nor they will know you have falling O2 levels and by the time you twig, it’s too late, you will be in the grip of the virus and the best the quacks can offer you is a ventilator and a startlingly low chance of recovery.

This is not my experience.

For several weeks I have been working in a face 2 face clinical assessment red site for persons who are suspected of and  have confirmed Covid symptoms. The assessment centre is for patients who have moderate to severe symptoms or ongoing symptoms regardless of age and and co-morbid underlying health conditions. We take direct referrals from nhs 111, northwest ambulance service and gp's. We are seeing neonates, (babies under 28 days old, infants, adults and older adults,so all ages. Not all people who develop moderate to severe pneumonia have underlying health conditions. Babies and children are at a higher risk of pneumonia because they have not developed their full immunity and this takes several years. Fortunately children do appear to have better outcomes from Covid pneumonia than older adults with underlying conditions.

Patients are referred to us if clinical picture deems that they require a face to face assessment, yes many have underlying conditions but not all. I have sent patients into hospital with moderate developing pneumonia with underlying health conditions and others with no underlying conditions who had presented with severe pneumonia. Though all presentations to hospital are concerning to an extent, fortunately the latter are less common. The guidance from the world the world health authority (WHO) in line with National institute of clinical excellence (NICE) have been adjusted for Covid symptoms assessment lower threshold. The threshold has been lowered for face 2 face consultation and symptoms because of the particular virulence of Covid and it's consequential developing array of symptoms. 

I am increasingly seeing patients who have been referred in with mild symptoms, no comorbidities. The referring clinician has deemed assessing because they had persistent symptoms longer than what would be currently expected from Covid virology symptoms of the virus to be shedding for. It is the clinical picture which deems assessment.

Coughing up blood (haemoptysis) is present in under 5% on presentation to hospital. Re the monitoring of saturated 02 levels this cannot be done without a face 2 face, however there are many questions which are asked to help inform  the worsening clinical picture and escalating  face 2 face assessment.

 The "happy hypoxia" as it is known as which is less common in Covid pneumonia presentation from most recent studies are 2-4 in 10 patients in icu beds, many patients who have HP which is not a unknown medical condition, it has long been documented as hypocapnic hypoxia and can occur in other lung conditions. It is being seen more in Covid because of the numbers of infections and the primary pathological mechanism of Covid is one of the respiratory system.

[toontastic]

3 hours ago, Dave-G said:

That will be done after driving a two miles alone late at night on unlisted roads, then carrying a lightweight rifle walking about for exercise alone in deserted private fields. All done many many many times further away from anyone on any part of a housing estate or town.  🙂

I've been out tonight on the rats. But people on some forum somewhere are probably refering to us as special.

[Saltings]

33 minutes ago, 7daysinaweek said:

This is not my experience.

For several weeks I have been working in a face 2 face clinical assessment red site for persons who are suspected of and  have confirmed Covid symptoms. The assessment centre is for patients who have moderate to severe symptoms or ongoing symptoms regardless of age and and co-morbid underlying health conditions. We take direct referrals from nhs 111, northwest ambulance service and gp's. We are seeing neonates, (babies under 28 days old, infants, adults and older adults,so all ages. Not all people who develop moderate to severe pneumonia have underlying health conditions. Babies and children are at a higher risk of pneumonia because they have not developed their full immunity and this takes several years. Fortunately children do appear to have better outcomes from Covid pneumonia than older adults with underlying conditions.

Patients are referred to us if clinical picture deems that they require a face to face assessment, yes many have underlying conditions but not all. I have sent patients into hospital with moderate developing pneumonia with underlying health conditions and others with no underlying conditions who had presented with severe pneumonia. Though all presentations to hospital are concerning to an extent, fortunately the latter are less common. The guidance from the world the world health authority (WHO) in line with National institute of clinical excellence (NICE) have been adjusted for Covid symptoms assessment lower threshold. The threshold has been lowered for face 2 face consultation and symptoms because of the particular virulence of Covid and it's consequential developing array of symptoms. 

I am increasingly seeing patients who have been referred in with mild symptoms, no comorbidities. The referring clinician has deemed assessing because they had persistent symptoms longer than what would be currently expected from Covid virology symptoms of the virus to be shedding for. It is the clinical picture which deems assessment.

Coughing up blood (haemoptysis) is present in under 5% on presentation to hospital. Re the monitoring of saturated 02 levels this cannot be done without a face 2 face, however there are many questions which are asked to help inform  the worsening clinical picture and escalating  face 2 face assessment.

 The "happy hypoxia" as it is known as which is less common in Covid pneumonia presentation from most recent studies are 2-4 in 10 patients in icu beds, many patients who have HP which is not a unknown medical condition, it has long been documented as hypocapnic hypoxia and can occur in other lung conditions. It is being seen more in Covid because of the numbers of infections and the primary pathological mechanism of Covid is one of the respiratory system.

can I thank you and your colleagues for your help and perseverance in this difficult time     it must be so difficult while others get together without thinking of any one else other than a jolly  when some of you guys cant go home to hug your kids or partner      all I can say is thanks

[Jim Neal]

Hi Mungler, I generally  agree with a lot of your opinions posted on this forum but I have to take issue with this post. 

Firstly, what's the source of the chart you posted?  It states the figures are "CALCULATED from WHO daily situation reports".  I can CALCULATE a completely different number by pressing the minus button and making up a number thereafter before pressing enter.  The attached image shows today's statistics according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which is, I believe, a very reliable source for global C19 stats.

Your figures for the UK are 6.6 per million population, whereas worldometer's are 469.  That's 71 times higher.

Secondly, relating to your points posted above:

9 hours ago, Mungler said:

1) Is the health service overwhelmed or going to be overwhelmed, which actually translates to "is the spread exponential?"

2) What proportion of people who get the disease are dying, which actually translates to "are we treating it properly?"

3) Are we going to kill a huge number of people afterwards which actually translates to "are we destroying the economy?"

1) The two halves of that question do not correlate with each other.  Whether or not the health service can cope is not directly proportional or linked in any way to whether the virus is spreading "exponentially".  The virus could spread exponentially but be countered by a 100x increase in NHS capacity and therefore the NHS are not overwhelmed.  Conversely the NHS could shut down all its nightingale hospitals, go back to "normal" business and then suddenly with a second wave become overwhelmed by a much less than exponential spread of the virus.  There are two counter-balancing factors involved, they are only relative to each other.

2) There is a lot more to mortality rate than if it is being "treated properly" in hospitals.  As far as I'm aware there is only so much that can be done for someone with severe C19 symptoms.  Demographics - the actual people suffering -  are the influential factor.  Except for a tiny minority of cases, age and underlying health issues dictate mortality rates, so it is not at all a reflection on the ability of the NHS staff to "save" people who are basically doomed if they become infected.

3) This sentence makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.  It's like saying "Are we going to lift those boxes onto the shelf, which actually translates to "am I having fish and chips for dinner tonight?"".  Absolute twaddle, complete nonsense.  If I may attempt to second-guess the botched attempt to communicate a point.... If, as a nation, we decided to abandon protective measures and simply get on with life as we knew it, the most number and soonest to die from C19 would be almost entirely limited to the very senior faction of society - they are not the powerhouse of the economy and it would have little economic effect.

I don't know where you dredged that load of manure up from but it's way off the mark mate, sorry 🤥

[Mungler]

As I said, I stole it from elsewhere and the context of a longer discussion was lost.

No. 3 is all about the economic cost of the lockdown, which will kill more people in the long term than are saved by the lockdown.

When assessing all of this people get very emotive when it comes to the cost / economics of where we are and because we haven’t had the bill or dealt with the economic consequences yet they don’t seem real or rather they don’t seem worthy of consideration.

On the stats, you can’t look at the death rate alone; I don’t want to be rude but recording the death of a 90 year old in a care home is not the same as the death of a 30 year old etc. Following on, I don’t have the data set to hand but my earlier figures were for the under 70’s IIRC.

Now I know that everyone over 70 will be having a melt down at this but they shouldn’t - they’re not working / they don't have to go to work and they are fully capable of continuing to self isolate on their own.

The brass tacks (and from the front line health care workers I have spoken to) is that in the main this virus is ironing out anyone over 80 who has an underlying health issue. Yes there are people younger who are affected but they are in a small minority.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Mungler

[Bigbob]

HOW TO STAY SAFE 

If your Scottish listen to Nichola Sturgeon 

 

 

If your English listen to Nichola Sturgeon 

[AVB]

9 hours ago, Bigbob said:

HOW TO STAY SAFE DESTROY THE ECONOMY MORE THAN IT IS ALREADY

If your Scottish listen to Nichola Sturgeon 

 

 

If your English listen to Nichola Sturgeon 

Corrected it for you 

[TIGHTCHOKE]

An interesting viewpoint!

 

Dr. John Oxford, virologist and professor at QMU London says…

“Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!”

[JohnfromUK]

6 minutes ago, TIGHTCHOKE said:

An interesting viewpoint!

 

Dr. John Oxford, virologist and professor at QMU London says…

“Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!”

I'm not sure where he gets his figures from - is he suggesting the current approx 32,000 figure is wrong and really only 8000 of them are Covid?  This does not stack up with the comparison of (all) deaths between the same period in past years - compared to this year - where I believe this indicates something like 5000 more PER WEEK based on the week of 10th April see https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/weekly-deaths-are-significantly-higher-than-in-the-same-period.

[das]

On 11/05/2020 at 00:50, Saltings said:

can I thank you and your colleagues for your help and perseverance in this difficult time     it must be so difficult while others get together without thinking of any one else other than a jolly  when some of you guys cant go home to hug your kids or partner      all I can say is thanks

Well said and exactly my sentiments.

[lancer425]

2 hours ago, das said:

Well said and exactly my sentiments.

[VicW]

We now have the ridiculous situation where I can have any number of tradesmen visit my house to do inside jobs, the plumber, the electrician, the gasman plus the window cleaner etc all of whom need paying.
If my house is for sale I can have potential buyers come to view the property along with the estate agent.
I can't, however, have a visit from any members of my family even though I know that they are free of the virus bug.

Surprise has been expressed this morning at how many people are using public transport to get to work in the cities. What did the ********* in our government expect, that is how they get to work. Did the government really expect them all to rush out and buy bikes.

As usual our MP's, living in their ivory towers, don't appreciate how the real world works.

Vic.

[AVB]

19 minutes ago, VicW said:

We now have the ridiculous situation where I can have any number of tradesmen visit my house to do inside jobs, the plumber, the electrician, the gasman plus the window cleaner etc all of whom need paying.
If my house is for sale I can have potential buyers come to view the property along with the estate agent.
I can't, however, have a visit from any members of my family even though I know that they are free of the virus bug.

Surprise has been expressed this morning at how many people are using public transport to get to work in the cities. What did the ********* in our government expect, that is how they get to work. Did the government really expect them all to rush out and buy bikes.

As usual our MP's, living in their ivory towers, don't appreciate how the real world works.

Vic.

Common sense Vic. The tradespeople can come to your house but they must social distance, preferably you shouldn't be in the same room.  Your family can therefore also come but will need to abide by social distancing rules and preferably stay in another room. Doesn't sound like much fun for them but perhaps they know you.  

Do you need the government to tell you how to wipe your **** as well.  

 

 

[Mice!]

1 hour ago, VicW said:

Surprise has been expressed this morning at how many people are using public transport to get to work in the cities. What did the ********* in our government expect, that is how they get to work. Did the government really expect them all to rush out and buy bikes.

The only way people weren't going to use public transport who normally have to was if it wasn't running,  they said social distancing would still take place on public transport, I wonder if it did?

[JDog]

We managed to get out to our favourite coastal spot today for the first time in six months.

The good people of Lincolnshire haven’t yet caught up with the news about restrictions easing as we were the only people on the beach.

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by JDog

[7daysinaweek]

What a beautiful place that is JD, not a piece of litter in sight.

[Mice!]

16 minutes ago, 7daysinaweek said:

What a beautiful place that is JD, not a piece of litter in sight.

Been no one out dropping it!!

[toontastic]

1 hour ago, VicW said:

We now have the ridiculous situation where I can have any number of tradesmen visit my house to do inside jobs, the plumber, the electrician, the gasman plus the window cleaner etc all of whom need paying.
If my house is for sale I can have potential buyers come to view the property along with the estate agent.
I can't, however, have a visit from any members of my family even though I know that they are free of the virus bug.

Surprise has been expressed this morning at how many people are using public transport to get to work in the cities. What did the ********* in our government expect, that is how they get to work. Did the government really expect them all to rush out and buy bikes.

As usual our MP's, living in their ivory towers, don't appreciate how the real world works.

Vic.

Funnily enough I had a gas engineer out yesterday to do annual check. He wore full PPE and social distancing had to be observed. That's the reason why they are allowed to visit homes.

[Lord v]

I also popped out: